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Texas Instruments Posts Higher Profit, Revenue

news:032510f373cf0ebef4ae329a · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:28:00+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:34:26.508539+00:00 · excerpt

原文
Texas Instruments TXN 2.47%increase; up pointing triangle logged higher profit and revenue in its latest quarter on broad based growth led by industry, automotive and data center.

The Dallas-based semiconductor company on Wednesday posted a profit of $2.43 billion, or $2.62 a share, compared with a profit of $1.36 billion, or $1.48 share, a year earlier. Analysts expected $2.44 a share, according to FactSet.

Revenue rose 28% over the year to $6.06 billion, topping the $5.94 billion forecast by analysts.

The company’s analog unit grew revenue by 32%, to $4.91 billion. Its embedded processing segment revenue rose 21% to $848 million.

Texas Instruments expect fourth-quarter revenue between $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion and earnings per share of $2.45 to $2.79. Analysts expect revenue of $5.76 billion and earnings of $2.31 a share.

Texas Instruments Gives Sales Forecast That Tops Estimates

news:0e34ced9d884fd824d970e4d · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:03:19+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:09:11.563305+00:00 · excerpt

原文
Texas Instruments Inc., the biggest maker of analog and embedded processing chips, gave a strong revenue forecast for the current period, lifted by demand from automotive and industrial customers.

Revenue will be $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion in the third quarter, the company said in a TI reports third quarter 2026 financial results and shareholder returns Wednesday. Analysts had estimated $5.73 billion on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The outlook bodes well for the broader chip market at a time when AI bubble fears have weighed on the sector. But the company also benefits from having a broad set of customers. That means its fortunes are less tied to the artificial intelligence build-out.

The shares gained more than 2% in late trading after the results were released. Texas Instruments shares had soared more than 60% this year through the close, outperforming a wider increase by chip stocks.

军事威慑升级!数十架以军战机曾逼近伊朗边境,美国扩大制裁、据称拟撤离部分中东使馆人员

news:183dd50df9587cee7aaa5089 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:19:47+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:24:08.067573+00:00 · body

原文
美以与伊朗之间的紧张关系周三再度升温。
据央视援引以色列媒体当地时间21日周三的报道,数十架以色列战斗机和加油机本周稍早飞越叙利亚、伊拉克,逼近伊朗边境后折返。央视还援引伊朗方面消息称,伊朗南部锡里克地区21日晚又传出数次爆炸声,但声音的性质和来源尚不清楚。
同在本周三,央视援引美国财政部网站声明称,美国对伊朗实施新一轮制裁,并提及制裁对象包括总部位于巴拿马和希腊的律师事务所、总部位于新加坡和阿拉伯联合酋长国的航运代理机构,前者“为伊朗的军事、武器及核计划提供资金”,后者直接协助伊朗“影子船队”的运作。同日,卡塔尔媒体援引消息人士称,美国国务院正准备要求中东地区部分使馆人员撤离。
多条消息叠加之际,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡公开释放推翻伊朗政府的信号,伊朗外长阿拉格齐则表示,伊方不相信美国寻求和平的诚意,几乎没有理由期待谈判取得进展。美国方面一边继续加大经济施压,一边据报道准备调整驻中东外交人员安排,地区安全局势再度面临升级风险。
以色列据称告知美国数十架以军战机军演,美方怀疑意在诱使伊朗开火
据央视新闻援引以色列第12频道电视台21日晚的报道,本周稍早,数十架以色列战斗机和加油机飞越叙利亚、伊拉克上空,逼近伊朗边境,其飞行路线与针对伊朗的攻击路线“高度相似”,随后在即将进入伊朗领空前掉头返回以色列。
报道援引美国官员称,以色列事先已向美国通报此次行动,并将其解释为军事演习和力量展示,目的是威慑伊朗。但美国方面怀疑,以方可能希望借此挑衅伊朗,使伊朗向以军战机开火,从而为以色列发动新一轮军事打击提供借口。
这次行动也引发了对误判风险的担忧。相关消息人士指出,以色列安全部门担心,内塔尼亚胡和国防部长卡茨近期针对伊朗的强硬言论,可能促使伊朗采取预判性打击。若伊朗将以军的军事行动视为即将发动攻击的信号,双方可能在没有正式宣布重启大规模战争的情况下再次发生军事冲突。
值得注意的是,这次军事行动发生在美国国防部长赫格塞思访问以色列期间。美媒Axios的报道称,以军此次行动是一次远程军事力量展示,飞行距离超过800英里;美以官员称,该行动的设计目的之一就是让伊朗防空系统能够探测到以军机群。
伊朗南部锡里克传出数次爆炸声,具体原因仍不明
在以军战机逼近伊朗边境的消息传出后,伊朗南部又出现新的安全事件。
据央视新闻报道,当地时间21日21时许,伊朗南部锡里克(Sirik)地区传出数次爆炸声。截至报道时,声音的性质和来源尚不清楚。卡塔尔半岛电视台也援引伊朗媒体报道了这一消息。
目前尚无足够信息将锡里克地区的爆炸声与以军此前的军事行动联系起来,也没有可靠证据证实伊朗境内发生了新的空袭。因此,爆炸声究竟来自军事活动、事故还是其他原因,仍有待进一步核实。
内塔尼亚胡下令推翻伊朗政权,特朗普此前曾阻止大规模打击
以色列方面针对伊朗政权的公开表态,正变得更加直接。
据美媒CBS援引内塔尼亚胡21日当天在社交媒体的发文称,他已指示以色列国防军、摩萨德和安全部门采取行动,推翻伊朗政权。他还指责伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊延续其父、已故前最高领袖哈梅内伊的路线,并声称伊朗仍在试图发展核武器。
这番表态与本周稍早英国《金融时报》的报道相呼应。《金融时报》援引三名知情人士称,内塔尼亚胡此前已指示军方制定针对伊朗的新一轮大规模打击方案,原计划于10月10日前后实施,目标包括伊朗核设施、与政权相关的目标,以及电厂等民用基础设施。
据报道,以军当时已为持续数日的军事行动做好准备,预计打击规模将超过今年2月美以联合发动的军事行动。不过,特朗普反对在美国中期选举前重启大规模军事冲突,是这一计划未能实施的关键原因。
这意味着,尽管以色列继续对伊朗释放军事威胁,但美以双方在何时、以何种规模重启攻击的问题上,并非完全没有分歧。以色列的军事准备、美国对冲突升级时机的考量,以及伊朗可能采取的反制措施,共同构成了当前局势的重要变量。
美国扩大制裁伊朗“影子船队”,贝森特警告将追究所有支持伊朗的个人和机构
军事威慑之外,美国周三继续从经济和金融层面加大对伊朗的压力。
美国财政部21日发布公告,宣布对帮助伊朗规避制裁的法律和航运网络实施新一轮制裁。被制裁对象包括总部位于巴拿马和希腊的律师事务所Karnakis and Karnakis、位于新加坡和阿联酋的航运代理机构,以及一批涉及运输伊朗商品的货运船只。
美国财政部称,相关律师事务所多年来帮助注册航运公司、设立用于掩盖实际所有权的企业架构,使相关船只得以运输伊朗石油、石化产品和钢铁等商品;被制裁的航运代理机构则被指协助伊朗“影子船队”运作。
美国财长贝森特在声明中警告,无论是在海上参与非法石油转运,还是通过律师事务所提供支持,只要帮助伊朗政府,美国就会找到相关人员并实施制裁。他表示,相关行动将继续针对支持伊朗政权的个人和机构。
根据美国财政部公告,相关制裁措施将冻结被列名对象在美国境内或由美国人士控制的资产,并限制美国人士与其进行交易。美国还在调查一家希腊银行与伊朗之间可能存在的联系,并向多家欧洲银行索取与受制裁伊朗金融机构关系有关的信息。
这轮行动延续了美国针对伊朗石油出口、航运和金融渠道的施压策略。其目标不仅是打击直接参与运输伊朗商品的企业,也包括为相关贸易提供法律、注册和物流服务的中间机构,进一步提高第三方企业与伊朗开展业务的合规风险。
阿拉格齐称几乎无理由期待谈判进展,强调已做好充分自卫准备
伊朗方面则继续否认美国寻求和平的诚意。
据央视新闻报道,伊朗外长阿拉格齐21日发表文章称,伊朗完全不相信美国政府宣称的和平意愿具有诚意。鉴于白宫没有表现出就未来出路达成谅解的意愿,同时继续威胁动用更多武力,伊方几乎没有理由期待谈判取得进展。
阿拉格齐表示,伊朗仍致力于寻求有尊严、和平解决冲突的办法,同时已做好捍卫自身的充分准备。伊朗愿意与美国达成公正、体面的协议,但要求美国展现认真谈判的态度,并真正愿意永久停止侵略。
不过,外交沟通渠道并未完全关闭。CBS报道援引阿拉格齐当天的表态称,伊美仍通过调解方就一项为期七天的停火提议进行间接谈判。该提议此前遭到特朗普拒绝,美方则寻求加入新的条款。巴基斯坦和卡塔尔等国仍在参与斡旋。
美国拟要求部分中东使馆人员撤离,地区安全风险持续上升
外交安全层面的动向同样值得关注。
据路透社21日报道,三名美国官员透露,美国国务院正准备下令,要求海湾地区部分美国使馆人员及其家属离开驻在国。报道指出,这一安排与地区敌对行动可能再次升级有关,也涉及伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装近期对沙特阿拉伯发动的袭击。
卡塔尔媒体半岛电视台同日也援引消息人士称,美国国务院准备要求中东地区部分使馆人员撤离。不过,目前相关报道指向的是部分外交人员及家属的离境安排,不能据此认定美国已决定全面撤出中东外交人员。
从以军战机逼近伊朗边境、伊朗南部传出爆炸声,到美国进一步扩大制裁、评估驻外人员安全,周三的多条消息共同反映出地区风险正在累积。
眼下,最关键的变量仍是军事行动是否会从威慑和准备阶段转向新一轮大规模打击,以及美国与伊朗之间的间接谈判能否取得进展。在以色列持续释放打击信号、美国强化经济施压而伊朗坚持不放弃防御准备的情况下,任何一方的误判,都可能使局势进一步升级。
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Meta Is Getting Creative to Fund Its Massive AI Investments

news:2db6715d3222e1892dbac85a · 发布时间 2026-10-21T21:41:00+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T21:47:27.383757+00:00 · body

原文
This is an edition of the What’s News newsletter, which helps you catch up on the headlines and understand the news, free in your inbox daily. If you’re not subscribed, sign up here.

The new stock will have an effective date in January 2027 and won’t affect CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s voting control. In the third quarter, the company reported record revenue of $64.6 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase. The results came hours after a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay the state $25 billion for misleading users about its data-privacy practices. The state called it one of the largest verdicts in U.S. history.

Wall Street expected capital expenditures to accelerate from last quarter’s $5.8 billion, but they declined to $4.7 billion—still more than twice the company’s spend a year earlier. CEO Elon Musk has signaled Tesla would spend heavily on assets like AI computing power, saying in July that 2026 would be “a massive Capex year.” The company reported flat revenue in the third quarter. A merger between Tesla and SpaceX “would be a good idea,” Musk said on yesterday’s SpaceX earnings call.

The disruption to Ukraine’s use of Starshield is having a significant impact on Kyiv’s defenses against Russia’s invasion, according to Ukrainian military units and military analysts. Musk said last week that Starshield access was controlled by the U.S. government. SpaceX hasn’t so far responded to requests for comment on the Journal’s reporting that Musk had ordered the slowdown. U.S. officials have denied that the White House ordered the restrictions. Members of Congress from both parties are calling for an investigation into the SpaceX CEO.

The praise wasn’t a departure for the U.S. special envoy, as President Trump has sought to foster warmer relations with Putin in an effort to defuse the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv and develop economic ties with Russia. Witkoff’s remarks were made after he arrived in Russia to secure the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American citizen. Some Republican senators were quick to condemn the praise of a leader who has long been seen as one of the West’s most persistent adversaries.

The video, which shows Democrat Amy Acton’s mother calling her a liar and unfit for office, has prompted backlash across the political spectrum. Acton has said her mother’s husband sexually abused her, and she and her mother have been estranged since she was a child. Her opponent Vivek Ramaswamy has taken responsibility for the video, which has injected new tension in the closely contested race just two weeks before Election Day.

The portion of the world’s websites that could be vulnerable to one of the most severe online bugs ever. Artificial-intelligence tools helped find the critical security issue that could allow an attacker to steal information or launch a cyberattack on anyone visiting a hacked website.

Spanning about 1,900 miles and sustaining farms, towns and wildlife, the Rio Grande is the lifeblood of much of the Southwest—and it is running dry, in what experts describe as one of America’s most severe water crises. This has depleted reservoirs in Colorado, New Mexico and Texas, imperiling the many communities that depend on the river for drinking water and irrigation.

Yesterday, we asked whether Elon Musk should have ordered the Starlink slowdown in Ukraine. Here’s what you had to say:

“Absolutely not! He’s not a representative of the people or the government and has no business interfering in foreign policy.” —Nancie Carlson, Oregon

“No private individual should have that kind of power! We elect our representatives to Washington to represent us, and we certainly didn’t elect Musk. The argument that he owns the company and can do what he wants doesn’t factor in that he has many diverse shareholders who actually own the company and are also represented by the government in international affairs. Musk is much to be admired for his many accomplishments, but he has strayed into areas that must be left to elected officials.” —Darrell Ticehurst, California

Apple picking has become for families what “leaf peeping” is for new couples on their first weekend away: A high-stakes quest for joy that simultaneously raises a host of not-as-advertised realities. The Journal’s Ellen Gamerman details the excruciating delight of a modern day trip to the apple orchard.

WSJ | Buy Side: Is life insurance on your to-do list before the year ends? We found the best life insurance companies based on our analysis of term life and cash-value policies.

Today’s newsletter was curated by Amira McKee and Liz Webber.

纳斯达克金龙中国指数收跌2.35%,报5584.79点,美股早盘低开低走,整体低位震荡、北京时间22:48刷新日低至5539.10点。 热门中概股里,小鹏初步收跌5.6%,禾赛跌5.5%,小马智行跌4.2%,阿里跌3.9%,京东、理想跌3.

news:38922cfb81f8ea7e9038cdbd · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:00:02+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:00:12.021078+00:00 · body

原文
纳斯达克金龙中国指数收跌2.35%,报5584.79点,美股早盘低开低走,整体低位震荡、北京时间22:48刷新日低至5539.10点。
热门中概股里,小鹏初步收跌5.6%,禾赛跌5.5%,小马智行跌4.2%,阿里跌3.9%,京东、理想跌3.6%,万国数据、世纪互联涨1.1%霸王茶姬涨3.8%。
ETF中,中概互联网指数ETF(KWEB)收跌2.51%,中国科技指数ETF(CQQQ)收跌1.01%。德银嘉实沪深300指数ETF(ASHR)收跌0.67%,XtrackersHarvest中证50(ASHS)收涨0.14%,MSCI新兴市场ex中国ETF(EMXC)收涨1.01%。

EU probes pro-Kremlin disinformation around French riots

news:3db32dcab600bb6d797250ac · 发布时间 2026-10-21T04:00:22.818000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T04:02:27.534189+00:00 · body

原文
Laura Dubois in Brussels and Sam Jones in Berlin

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

EU regulators are examining possible foreign online interference and disinformation campaigns around the French riots and similar outbursts of violence and looting in other European countries in recent days.

According to security officials, pro-Russian and far-right social media accounts linked to previous disinformation campaigns have spread violent videos in an attempt to sow more chaos. Iran and Algeria are also suspected of being behind some of the messaging, experts said.

“We want to know how co-operative the platforms are,” said an EU official. “It is possible that Russian information campaigns . . . are happening, but platforms should not algorithmically amplify them.”

According to David Colon, researcher at Sciences Po who specialises in disinformation, “pro-Kremlin influencers” linked to the Russian campaign Storm-1516 have “amplified the events and spread a number of false narratives”. He also mentioned the Russian influence network called Matryoshka.

But, he stressed, the pro-Russian influencers “are not at the origin of the demonstration, nor . . . have they had an impact on the course of the events”.

Governments, including in France, have asked intelligence agencies to look into whether Russian agents played a more active role in stoking street violence directly.

One senior European intelligence official said there was no concrete evidence of such provocations. Russian disinformation efforts were mostly responding reactively and online, they said, but added that French investigations were in their early stages.

In Italy, where violent protests also took place this weekend, defence minister Guido Crosetto blamed the unrest on “a hybrid war that someone is waging on our nations through unconventional tools called TikTok, social media and YouTube without the west realising it, or even reacting.”

The European Commission met French authorities this week to discuss co-operation with social media platforms including Elon Musk’s X that have allowed racist and violent messages to go viral. Belgium, where protests also turned violent over the weekend, was also set to discuss the role of China’s TikTok, an interior ministry spokesperson said.

Regulators are asking online marketplaces such as Amazon and Vinted to block the sale of goods that appear to have been looted.

The FT identified several accounts that posted violent content, including footage falsely claiming to have been recorded in France and which gathered millions of views.

One X account with 5,000 followers posted a video of protesters throwing fireworks that was viewed almost 6mn times. The footage was in fact recorded in 2024 during protests in Tbilisi, Georgia.

X, Instagram, TikTok, Amazon and Vinted did not respond to requests for comment.

According to the EU’s diplomatic service, France is the second most targeted country in continental Europe after Ukraine for state-backed information manipulation.

Russian agents have staged physical provocations in France before: in 2023, people suspected of being Russian agents sprayed blue Stars of David around Paris, evoking memories of the persecution of Jews during the Holocaust. The aim of the graffiti, which was initially portrayed as an antisemitic incident in the press, was to sow divisions, according to disinformation watchdog Viginum.

Viginum did not respond to a request for comment.

Colon at Sciences Po said there were indications of Iranian and Algerian influence operations in France.

“The interplay between influencers, algorithms and foreign state operations can lead to extreme volatility . . . triggering violent behaviour driven by the viral spread of emotionally charged content,” he said.

Colon mentioned Franco-Iranian influencer Shahin Hazamy as an example of accounts suspected of having links to Iran. Hazamy is currently appealing against a sentence by a first-instance court for condoning terrorism over posts in favour of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group deemed terrorist by the EU.

Hazamy posted various videos about the French protests, including about police officers beating up protesters, one of which received 4mn views on X.

Hazamy strongly denied accusations of being a foreign agent and said these allegations were themselves being spread by individuals with ties to foreign states, including the United Arab Emirates and Israeli lobby groups.

“My political stance in support of Palestine is routinely exploited to discredit me,” he said, adding he was an independent journalist.

Authorities would be looking in particular at far-left groups that appear to be the driving force behind many of the outbreaks, the intelligence official said. Weaponising such movements is “part of the playbook” the official said, but stressed that for now the simplest explanation was homegrown political radicalism.

Officials have generally cautioned that while there were indications of disinformation and foreign influence by state actors, it was unclear whether they had a significant impact.

“You have an authentic mobilisation of people who are angry at institutions because of their proper grievances, and foreign state actors try to amplify this,” said another European intelligence official. “Their role should not be overestimated. It would be much too simple to say this was the fault of the Russians.”

Co-operation between police and online platforms to identify violent protesters or looters was also being discussed, the EU official said. On Monday, the European Commission met French media watchdog Arcom and on Tuesday representatives of all member states’ authorities responsible for digital enforcement met.

The Commission said for now the situation was managed by national authorities, but Brussels would step in if the risk became “systemic” and online platforms failed to co-operate.

“Platforms must make sure that their algorithms are not misused in such a context. This includes any attempt to amplify such violence and incidents,” said spokesperson Thomas Regnier. “Violence that is happening offline must not be algorithmically amplified or incentivised online.”

Comcast Planning Significant Jobs Cuts as Part of Reorganization

news:5997cf77f4eeee4838b2056f · 发布时间 2026-10-21T22:53:38.707000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T23:15:57.417304+00:00 · body

原文
Comcast Corp. is planning a significant number of job cuts as part of an overall restructuring of its cable-TV, broadband and wireless businesses, according to people familiar with the company’s thinking.

The reorganization is designed to put Comcast in a stronger position to operate as an independent company after it spins off the NBCUniversal businesses next year, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the plans haven’t been made public. The cuts, which could start to be announced in a matter of weeks, are aimed at creating a more nimble workforce and freeing up cash to invest in more growth opportunities, among other long-term goals.

The Philadelphia-based media and telecom conglomerate has been losing cable-TV subscribers for some time as customers cut the cord in favor of streaming options. More recently, Comcast has also been shedding internet customers with rivals such as AT&T Inc., T-Mobile US Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. pushing attractively priced fiber optic or fixed wireless connections.

Comcast has been promoting broadband by offering five-year price guarantees and a free wireless line for one year. The company is due to report earnings on Thursday.

Read More: Comcast Gets Serious About Customer Losses — A Long Fight Looms

Comcast has adjusted its portfolio to boost its stock price, which was down about 21% this year. Cable-TV networks like CNBC and MS Now were spun off as Versant Media Group in January.

Co-Chief Executive Officer Brian Roberts has made changes to senior management to address the subscribers losses. He promoted Steve Croney to chief executive officer of the broadband and wireless business, and hired Jon Gieselman, a former Apple Inc. and DirecTV executive, as chief growth officer.

Michael Angelakis, a former chief financial officer, is returning to lead Comcast after the NBC separation.

The company had 179,000 full and part-time employees as of Dec. 31, 2025.

Stocks Slip After Mixed Megacap Results, Oil Rises: Markets Wrap

news:5ffe186354b57cf2a5f69a43 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T22:13:33+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T22:33:52.595454+00:00 · body

原文
US equity-index futures fell as a technology rally faded, trimming gains sparked by strong earnings that had bolstered confidence in the artificial intelligence trade.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures slipped in early Asian trading after both benchmarks advanced on Wall Street. Meta Platforms Inc. jumped in late trading on a strong revenue forecast and International Business Machines Corp. reported better-than-expected sales. Tesla Inc. fell after hours after cutting its 2026 capital-spending forecast.

The picture in Asia was mixed, with futures pointing to losses in South Korea and gains in Japan. Elsewhere, Treasury yields rose, helping lift the dollar, while gold held steady around $4,140 an ounce.

The latest results will test whether earnings can keep the AI trade on track as investors weigh strong growth against the mounting cost of funding the industry’s expansion. Concerns have grown in recent weeks that heavy spending on data centers and computing capacity may take longer to translate into profits.

“It’s all about earnings,” said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management. “There’s definitely a tension in the market between the growth path of the AI names and the ability to finance the industry.”

Tesla Inc.’s spending again fell short of Wall Street expectations, complicating Elon Musk’s plan to transform the electric-vehicle maker into an AI and robotics company. Capital expenditures totaled $4.73 billion in the third quarter, well below the $7.95 billion analysts had expected, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Meta Platforms Inc., by contrast, raised its capital-spending outlook as it ramps up investment in AI, underscoring the vast sums technology companies are committing to the buildout.

The scale of that investment is putting greater attention on whether infrastructure can keep pace. BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink warned that delays in building data centers could push up computing costs and threaten economic growth.

“If we don’t build out these data centers, it is actually more inflationary because the cost of compute is so high right now,” Fink said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Wednesday on the sidelines of the Berlin Global Dialogue event. “And the faster we can build out more data centers, the more compute we have, the faster we can bring down the cost.”

Elsewhere, a late advance in Brent crude faded as concerns over an escalation in Middle East hostilities eased. The US clarified that it had ordered the departure of some staff in Saudi Arabia only, rather than across the Gulf region as a news report had suggested.

Oil also pulled back from intraday highs after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine on a potential peace deal.

Still, traders remained wary after repeated efforts to broker a ceasefire since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly five years ago failed to produce a lasting breakthrough.

“The market has seen numerous iterations of potential ceasefires and diplomatic breakthroughs, so there is understandable skepticism around whether improving rhetoric will translate into tangible progress,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Still, the shift in tone is tempering upside momentum.”

Texas Instruments Inc., the biggest maker of analog and embedded processing chips, gave a strong revenue forecast for the current period, lifted by demand from automotive and industrial customers.Intel Corp. touted progress with its long-delayed US factory expansion, saying it was finishing up a plant in Arizona and making headway on the chipmaker’s newest site in Ohio.AT&T Inc. showed strong gains in internet and mobile phone customers in the third quarter, but it wasn’t enough to assuage market concerns about the looming entry of SpaceX into the consumer cellular market.Philip Morris International Inc. Philip Morris Cuts Guidance on Currency as Energy Costs Bite (2) due to currency movements, as it warned that rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict and strikes from Russia’s war on Ukraine are taking a toll.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 7:10 a.m. Tokyo timeHang Seng futures fell 0.2%S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changedThe euro was little changed at $1.1231The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.11 per dollarThe offshore yuan was little changed at 6.6742 per dollarThe Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7025

Bitcoin was little changed at $84,687.68Ether was little changed at $2,492.93

Australia’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 5.26%

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $97.82 a barrelSpot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Tesla cuts spending before potential SpaceX deal even as Musk bets future on AI, robots

news:69ff95bd9a0f9a10a01c2e22 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:06:51.811000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:12:28.055325+00:00 · body

原文
Oct 21 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab cut its annual capital expenditure forecast by a fifth and ​posted surprise positive free cash flow in the third quarter on Wednesday, after investing far less in its AI and robotics ambitions than Wall Street had ‌expected.

The unexpected cash generated in the quarter comes at a critical moment for Tesla, as CEO Elon Musk explores combining the EV maker with his far more capital-intensive space venture, SpaceX (SPCX.O), opens new tab.

While the lower spending strengthens Tesla’s financial position ahead of any deal, preserving cash at the expense of investment — in AI, robotaxis and humanoid robots — could undermine the very growth story investors are betting on.

Tesla shares, which had risen 2% in after-hours trading after the company reported ​positive cash flow, higher gross margin and market-beating revenue, reversed course to trade down 2%. They have fallen about 14% this year.

"The free cash flow beat was a pleasant ​surprise, but when combined with the lower-than-expected capex, raises questions on the next step for the automaker," said Ryan Lee, senior vice president of product ⁠and strategy at Direxion, which offers ETFs tied to Tesla. "Lower capex suggests less of an 'all-in' approach to the AI arms race than one would expect from Elon."

Tesla said it expected capital expenses ​for 2026 to be roughly $20 billion, down from its previous forecast of more than $25 billion, but did not say what it would spend less on.

In the third quarter ended September 30, Tesla spent $4.7 ​billion in capex, double that of a year ago, but lower than the $7.5 billion analysts on average were expecting, according to LSEG data. Tesla reported free cash flow of $1.53 billion, compared with an expected $4.92 billion cash burn.

Musk said on Tuesday that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX was a "good idea" and that the companies had formed special committees to discuss a deal. On Wednesday, Musk said on a conference call with analysts ​that he had no more to say on the matter.

A merger would create a single company at the center of Musk's long-term vision: an integrated technology and manufacturing empire spanning AI, energy, ​robotics, communications and transportation on Earth and beyond.

Still, investors will seek evidence that Tesla is investing enough to turn Musk’s ambitions into commercial businesses, with the robotaxi rollout lagging his promises. Tesla's energy unit has recently ‌offered a ⁠counterweight to its auto business, which remains under scrutiny as rivals globally launch newer, often cheaper models. Tesla still leans heavily on the aging Model 3 and Model Y.

"The merger still faces a high bar, but tonight’s numbers make the financial logic harder to ignore," said Thomas Monteiro, a senior analyst at Investing.com.

"The main takeaway is that Tesla's surprisingly positive cash flow quarter did not come from stronger profits, but from spending billions less than planned at a time when SpaceX is preparing to invest up to $40 billion in a single quarter."

Revenue was flat from a ​year earlier, despite the end of US tax ​credits that supported sales last year. That ⁠was enough to top Wall Street targets. Net income plunged 43%.

Tesla said in a statement that it ended the quarter with the largest backlog for its passenger vehicles in four years. High gasoline prices have stoked demand for EVs, especially in Europe.

With 486,532 vehicles delivered in the third quarter, ​Tesla is on track to increase annual deliveries for the first time in three years.

"Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding ​our production by a significant ⁠margin," Musk said on the conference call with analysts. "In a nutshell, after many years of sort of grind and things being fairly flat, I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth."

The FSD (supervised) attach rate reached over three-quarters of new vehicle deliveries in North America, a nearly 20-percentage-point increase from the second quarter, Tesla said.

Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, came in at 18.1% in ⁠the third quarter, ​higher than analysts’ estimates of 16.7%, according to Visible Alpha data.

Tesla said it was aiming to produce 5 million ​vehicles a year by about 2030, up from an expected 2.5 million this year.

Amazon warns new cyber flaws detected using AI are being ‘broadly exploited’

news:84088ccd4c4ef6ec9b5d0d74 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T23:20:30.977000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T18:50:21.581198+00:00 · body

原文
Simply sign up to the Cyber Security myFT Digest -- delivered directly to your inbox.

The US National Security Agency on Wednesday warned vulnerabilities in a programming language that underpins the internet, discovered using AI tools, had left websites around the world critically exposed to hacking.

The warning from the intelligence agency, as well as UK authorities, came as some governments in Europe were reportedly taking websites offline while they patched the two security flaws.

The vast impact of the bugs, uncovered with the help of OpenAI and Google models after being undetected for more than a decade, highlights the ability of AI to upend cyber security.

The release of new models earlier this year from Anthropic and OpenAI with powerful cyber capabilities prompted warnings from politicians and financial regulators and led the US government to temporarily limit their rollout.

The NSA on Wednesday warned all organisations using the programming language known as PHP to immediately update their systems or take them offline.

The developers responsible for maintaining PHP released software updates to patch the vulnerabilities earlier on Wednesday.

“These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server’s file system or database,” the NSA said. “If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommended that organisations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated.”

Researchers at two US cyber security groups, Calif and Wiz discovered the vulnerabilities. Alphabet-owned Wiz estimated the compromised programming language powered about 70 per cent of all websites in the world.

“Given the severity of these flaws and PHP’s widespread use, we consider this one of the most impactful security issues in recent memory,” OpenAI said on Wednesday. “To our knowledge, frontier AI found these vulnerabilities before attackers did.”

“It highlights how AI can uncover security flaws with internet-scale impact, but the same capabilities can also help attackers rapidly develop offensive tools and exploits,” the AI lab added.

OpenAI worked with PHP, Calif and Wiz to verify the vulnerabilities and develop the patches.

The White House said federal agencies were assessing the potential impacts of the bugs on government systems and critical infrastructure.

PHP’s wide presence on the internet is largely because WordPress, the most widely used website-building platform, is written primarily in PHP and relies on it to function.

The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre said the vulnerabilities could potentially allow a hacker to take control of a website’s server without needing a password or other login credentials. “The NCSC is encouraging UK organisations to take immediate action,” it said.

强劲季报提振AI交易,纳指反弹超1%,绩优SpaceX涨近8%、Meta盘后走高,原油高位震荡

news:8ef7ba8c4ec12b9dcdcdcc81 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T23:20:03+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T08:19:43.495490+00:00 · body

原文
SpaceX强劲季报重燃市场对人工智能投资前景的信心,美股期货随之走高,科技股领涨。
标普500期货上涨0.2%,纳斯达克100期货上涨0.7%。SpaceX涨约9%,AI业务收入同比暴增830%并首次成为最大收入来源,净利润超预期2.3倍,提振市场情绪。与此同时,超微电脑(Super Micro Computer)发布亮眼初步季报,盘前涨约15%,进一步强化了AI需求持续强劲的市场叙事。
然而,利好情绪受到一定抑制。油价再度走高,布伦特原油向每桶110美元逼近,霍尔木兹海峡附近的船只遭受袭击威胁供应,同时美国原油库存数据显示库存下降490万桶。美债收益率及美元走势变化不大。奈飞(Netflix)则因四季度营收指引及广告收入双双不及预期,盘前跌约6%,成为当日主要拖累。
BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany的Stephan Kemper表示:"投资者在情绪上天生具有两极性。SpaceX和超微电脑所展示的强劲数据与积极指引,正是市场目前所需要的良药。"
标普500期货上涨0.2%,纳斯达克100期货上涨0.7%。SpaceX涨约9%,超微电脑涨约15%,奈飞跌约6%
欧元下跌0.1%,报1.1224美元
美国10年期国债收益率变化不大,为5.11%
德国十年期收益率变化不大,为3.40%
布伦特原油上涨0.9%,至每桶109.72美元
现货黄金下跌0.1%,报每盎司4,120.68美元
SpaceX季报引爆AI交易
SpaceX三季度营收145.8亿美元,同比增长161%,AI业务收入同比暴增830%,首次超越其他业务成为公司最大单一收入来源,净利润超出市场预期2.3倍。
据彭博,ING首席投资策略师Simon Wiersma表示:"SpaceX提供了市场正在寻找的答案——AI相关需求依然真实存在。这不仅提振了市场对SpaceX本身的信心,也改善了对整个AI生态系统的情绪。"
此外,埃隆·马斯克就SpaceX与特斯拉潜在合并表态支持,进一步推动SpaceX股价上行。
Anthropic千亿算力计划助力市场信心修复
SpaceX财报的超预期表现,叠加Anthropic PBC据报道计划未来数年投入高达7500亿美元用于算力建设,共同缓解了近期因估值高企和融资压力引发的市场忧虑。
BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany的Stephan Kemper表示:"投资者在情绪上天生具有两极性。SpaceX和超微电脑所展示的强劲数据与积极指引,正是市场目前所需要的良药。"
本周科技股财报季仍将持续,Meta Platforms与特斯拉将于周三盘后发布财报,市场密切关注AI投入能否继续兑现回报。
超微电脑初步季报超预期,奈飞指引拖累情绪
超微电脑公布第一财季初步业绩,营收超出分析师预期27%,盘前股价随之跳涨约15%,再度印证AI算力基础设施需求旺盛。
与科技硬件板块的强势形成对比,奈飞盘前下跌约6%。公司四季度营收指引与广告收入均低于市场预期,拖累流媒体板块情绪。
欧洲及亚洲市场表现分化
欧洲市场,斯托克600指数小幅上涨,能源和科技板块上涨被消费相关板块的回落所抵消。斯托克50指数开盘涨0.3%,法国CAC 40指数涨0.1%,德国DAX指数基本持平,英国富时100指数跌0.1%。法国10年期国债相对德国同期国债的收益率溢价扩大至逾155个基点。
亚洲市场,区域股市基准指数整体反弹,韩国综合股价指数(Kospi)表现居前。韩国Elice Inc.在经历韩国史上最差IPO首日表现之一后,股价单日反弹30%。
风险提示及免责条款
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

China Stock Rescue May Need More State Buying to Work, Bloomberg Intelligence Says

news:903929b42167edcf1acd6ab0 · 发布时间 2026-10-22T00:15:41.233000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-22T00:29:40.535367+00:00 · body

原文
China’s national team may need to accelerate stock purchases after the benchmark notched a record losing streak, though state-backed buying alone may not be enough to put the market on a sustained recovery, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Central Huijin Investment Co., the state-backed investor that leads China’s market stabilization efforts, raised $231 billion through ETF sales in the first half but has redeployed just $43 billion since purchases resumed in July, BI analysts including Rebecca Sin wrote in a note. That leaves about $188 billion in dry powder, enough for 75 sessions of buying at the recent pace.

“With no global equities rebound to rely on, the national team might need to buy more and do so for longer than in its two most recent rescues, during the April 2025 tariff shock and the July 2026 technology selloff,” according to the analysts. “Capacity isn’t the constraint; willingness to deploy money is. So far this month, the pace of buying suggests the national team is cautious,” they added.

According to BI estimates, state-backed funds spend about $15 billion between Oct. 9 through Oct. 20. That pace was slower than the July 2026 rescue.

Signs of national-team buying have picked up this month as the CSI 300 Index nears a technical bear market following 10 weeks of selling. The recent selling has been disproportionately centered on tech, with the Star50 Index down nearly 40% from its peak amid the global AI rout, making it one of the region’s worst performers.

The composition of state-backed buying has shifted toward technology and growth shares, BI notes. In October so far, the CSI 300’s estimated share of purchases has been about 45% so far, down from 55% historically. Meanwhile, the combined share of the tech-heavy Star50 and ChiNext gauges rose to about 32% from 11% historically. That dovetails with Beijing’s push to develop homegrown technology and preserve the stock market as a source of capital.

The challenge goes beyond where the money is being deployed. BI says that a panic-driven selloff can potentially be stemmed once selling is exhausted, while a steady decline fueled by weak domestic investor sentiment is harder to reverse. That would mean “more capital and policy support than market rescues” of the past.

A similar challenge emerged in 2024, when sustained ETF buying cushioned stocks through the summer, but failed to deliver a lasting turnaround until broader policy measures lifted sentiment in September.

Still, the national team’s return is more about slowing the selloff than engineering a turnaround, with direction ultimately determined by fundamentals, according to Zhu Zhenxin, head of Asymptote Investment Research in Beijing.

“If the market falls too quickly, the national team will probably continue buying, though the intervention may not be enough to reverse the market,” he said. “If the decline slows or the market moves sideways, the buying will probably stop.”

Bitcoin Rallies Back as Tech Rebound Sparks Speculative Appetite

news:9439e1fbb2edc079205196a0 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T16:15:49.199000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T16:30:25.785304+00:00 · body

原文
Bitcoin climbed alongside technology stocks as a revival in risk appetite spread to cryptocurrencies, lifting the token out of a bout of listless trading and offering another sign of resurgent speculative fervor across global markets.

The original digital asset rose as much as 2.4% to $84,737 as a rally sparked by SpaceX earnings helped reignite enthusiasm for riskier assets, even as questions lingered over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom.

Also helping sentiment: the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency unveiled a US Bank Regulator Finalizes Long-Awaited Crypto Framework for payment stablecoin issuers, in latest sign pro-industry development.

The latest uptick has been in part driven by a rebuilding of leverage via perpetual futures. Open interest, or the total outstanding number of the futures contracts, has been rising again after weeks of deleveraging, according to data compiled by Coinglass.

“Risk assets in general got a lift from solid earnings and renewed AI interest while oil remains elevated and choppy.” said Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute. “At the moment, this still feels like a recovery vs the start of a rally, however that could turn quickly if we approach $87,000 Bitcoin with decent momentum.”

Besides futures, the crypto options market is posing a bullish posture as well with demand clustered around call contracts at the strike prices of $95,000, $90,000 and $100,000, according to crypto exchange Deribit.

“The longs that were on got cleared out on the way down, and a good part of the bounce was shorts closing. That’s largely positioning resetting rather than new leverage going on,” said Himanshu Sahay, co-founder of Arch Lending.

Many analysts are monitoring Bitcoin ETF flows for a read on the health of the rally and retail investor involvement. Over the past month, some $2.3 billion has gone into spot funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show, suggesting renewed investor interest. Within the cohort of offerings, BlackRock’s IBIT has been the biggest beneficiary, absorbing the majority of those flows during that stretch.

Still, researchers at Glassnode say that though spot ETFs have seen inflows, it hasn’t come with heightened trading volume. “Inflows that repeat on rising volume would show demand broadening beyond a single day,” they wrote in a note Wednesday.

“I think there’s plenty of fuel in the tank for it to fly higher again,” said Daniel Reis-Faria, chief executive officer of ZeroStack.

Meta puts Muse agent at heart of AI strategy, plans new stock to power investments

news:9546ced8e8003aaa1e14c33b · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:05:07.892000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:12:28.064692+00:00 · body

原文
Oct 21 (Reuters) - Meta (META.O), opens new tab introduced new non-voting shares on ​Wednesday in a move that would help fund the social media giant's costly AI expansion, as it reported strong growth of its consumer ‌AI agent app Muse.

Shares of the company rose more than 4% in extended trading, as it also forecast fourth-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates.

The Facebook and Instagram parent has been pouring money into advanced chips and data centers to compete more aggressively with OpenAI and Anthropic, eroding its historically strong free cash flow.

Meta will issue a new class of non-voting Class C common stock in January ​2027, effectively resulting in a two-for-one split, to fund acquisitions and retain top talent while maintaining CEO Mark Zuckerberg's control amid Silicon Valley's intensifying AI ​race.

Zuckerberg said more than 10 million people in the US and Canada have set up Muse accounts in a month and ⁠a half and growth remained strong. He said he expected Muse would serve "billions of people" who would potentially generate more revenue than the average Meta user.

"We want to help every person ​have an extremely capable personal agent that understands your goals and can help you achieve them and improve your life in whatever ways you want," Zuckerberg said on ​a conference call after Meta published its financial report.

The company raised the lower end of its annual spending forecast, now expecting capital expenditure to be between $135 billion and $145 billion this year, up from $130 billion to $145 billion expected previously.

The company reported better-than-expected revenue of $64.60 billion for the quarter ended September 30, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $63.37 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The company projected ​fourth-quarter revenue between $73 billion and $76 billion, above estimates of $73.73 billion.

Meta reported a free cash flow deficit of $2.12 billion in the third quarter, compared with positive free cash ​flow of $10.63 billion a year earlier.

"Our investments are paying off, the core business is strong, and we're seeing velocity across the board," Zuckerberg said in a statement.

The early popularity of its consumer-focused ‌AI agent ⁠Muse and the release of a competitive new series of AI models have helped Meta justify its spending to investors, even though some enterprises are restricting the agent's access over security concerns.

"The market has shifted from punishing Meta for spending to rewarding it for having a compelling product story," said Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com.

Legal challenges are also mounting, including a $25 billion penalty ordered by a judge in New Mexico earlier on Wednesday after a jury found Meta misled the state's residents about how it shared user data with ​third parties and enforced policies on hate ​speech and misinformation in a case ⁠related to British political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica.

In August, Meta agreed to pay as much as $18 billion over a decade and restrict teenagers' use of Facebook and Instagram to settle claims by nearly all US states alleging that Meta's platforms were designed to addict ​children.

The $25 billion penalty is a "stark reminder of the current legal challenges Meta faces, which will continue into next year," Emarketer ​senior analyst Minda Smiley ⁠said. "Questions and concerns related to privacy and safety will only ramp up should AI agents become more mainstream, which could ultimately hurt Meta considering its reputation in this area."

Meta posted diluted earnings per share of $3.83 in the quarter, a figure that would have been $7.40, had it not been for a $9.89 billion charge related to the August settlement.

The agreement removed a significant ⁠regulatory hurdle ​that had weighed on Meta's stock and allowed the company to avoid a potentially lengthy trial that ​could have exposed more internal documents about its treatment of young users.

Almost all of Meta's revenue comes from advertising, with Reels competing with TikTok and YouTube Shorts for dominance in the short-video market and Threads ​taking on Elon Musk's X, while its AI sharpens ad targeting and recommendations to boost user engagement.

SpaceX and Tesla Consider Merger

news:b3012360b8912d0fc5d43313 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:26:00+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:29:12.474432+00:00 · body

原文
This is an edition of the Markets P.M. newsletter, a recap of the day’s most important markets moves, delivered after the closing bell. If you’re not subscribed, sign up here.

SpaceX and Tesla shares surged after Elon Musk said his two companies were exploring a merger. Each company has appointed special board committees to consider the deal, which would be the biggest in M&A history if completed. Such a deal would also give Musk more control at Tesla. SpaceX shares gained 7.8%, while Tesla’s shares rose 3.4%.

Netflix stock fell 5.3% after the streaming giant reported its slowest revenue growth in years. The company, which has cut staff and overhauled its leadership team, said it was working to spur more viewing time.

The yield on the 10-year French government bonds crossed 5% for the first time in 24 years. Last weekend’s riots have added to worries about the country’s fiscal and political woes.

Stocks rose. The Nasdaq gained more than 1%, while the Dow added 0.7%, or 360 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.

The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq have spent years trying to outdo each other as they compete for the hottest new listings. Lately, it isn’t much of a fight. The Nasdaq has raised nearly $120 billion in traditional IPOs so far through Friday, while the NYSE has raised $20 billion. The lion’s share of Nasdaq’s haul comes from SpaceX and it could add another $100 billion or so to its tally if AI giant Anthropic officially selects Nasdaq for its IPO next month.

WSJ’s David Wainer explains how Elon Musk’s ambitions with Tesla and SpaceX are turning the aerospace company into an AI company.

Be prepared for the trading day ahead—sign up for Markets A.M.

Markets P.M. catches you up on the day’s most important markets moves, delivered after the closing bell. This email was written by Jinjoo Lee, writer for Heard on the Street, The Wall Street Journal’s home for financial analysis and commentary. To send us your feedback, reply to this email. Got a tip for us? Here’s how to submit.

法国10年期国债收益率站上5%整数位心理关口,为最近24年来首次

news:b8c6d1d075cd5b815237631e · 发布时间 2026-10-21T16:55:26+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T16:56:19.372975+00:00 · body

原文
周三(10月21日)欧市尾盘,法国10年期国债收益率涨8.1个基点,报5.013%,全天处于上涨状态、整体呈现出N形走势,多次涨穿5%,北京时间23:21达到5.024%,为2002年以来首次涨穿5%整数位心理关口、逼近当年上半年顶部5.367%、2000年二季度最高位5.679%、1996年年底最高位6.114%。
两年期法债收益率涨8.3个基点,报3.752%,逼近2026年10月2日最高位3.849%、2008年二季度最高位4.858%;30年期法债收益率涨5.4个基点,报5.519%,逼近2026年10月2日顶部5.579%、2001年二季度顶部5.888%、2000年年初最高位6.314%。
意大利10年期国债收益率涨5.8个基点,报4.577%;两年期意债收益率涨7.1个基点,30年期意债收益率涨3.1个基点。
西班牙10年期国债收益率涨5.2个基点,报4.081%。
希腊10年期国债收益率涨5.9个基点,报4.418%。

美股杠杆加不动了?华尔街“已耗尽资产负债表”,只能劝对冲基金“加空仓”

news:bb0bc36877ea7027425a5c85 · 发布时间 2026-10-22T00:20:09+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-22T00:39:06.816667+00:00 · body

原文
当内部风控触及上限,华尔街的答案不是踩刹车,而是移动球门柱。
据彭博最新报道,巴克莱银行今年早些时候在亚洲AI股票交易热潮中触及对冲基金客户融资上限后,通过内部拍卖机制,将宏观利率交易台的部分资本配额借调给大宗经纪业务,以维持对亚洲对冲基金客户的贷款扩张。与此同时,包括高盛在内的多家银行交易员开始向对冲基金客户施压,鼓励其持有更多空头头寸——这一操作在账面上压缩了资产负债表占用,却并未真正降低市场整体杠杆水平。
高盛首席财务官Denis Coleman本月早些时候表示,股票融资需求持续超出行业可用容量,高盛因此得以"有选择性地部署资源"。高盛大宗经纪数据显示,截至10月18日当周,美国多空对冲基金净杠杆率下降3.2个百分点至43.7%,创五年新低——但这一下降几乎全部来自空头头寸的增加,而非多头的削减。自7月31日以来,多头杠杆仅下降0.5个百分点至128.8%,空头杠杆则上升8.0个百分点至85.1%,处于五年来最高水平,整体总杠杆率约为214%,较此前不降反升。
巴克莱"移动球门柱":内部拍卖绕过风控上限
据彭博报道,巴克莱银行高管今年早些时候希望扩大对亚洲对冲基金客户的融资规模,以把握亚洲AI股票急速上涨的机遇。然而,银行已触及内部融资上限。解决方案是:由宏观利率交易台通过内部拍卖机制,将部分资本配额让渡给大宗经纪业务——后者由Adeel Khan主管的全球市场部门负责运营。
巴克莱官方表态称,该行"动态部署投资银行资产负债表,在把握客户机遇的同时保持对风险和回报的严格管控"。然而,据彭博援引的知情人士信息,这一"严格管控"实际上在触及上限之后才真正发挥作用,而应对方式是重新划定上限本身。
值得注意的是,英国银行已于今年7月AI交易出现裂痕之际开始审查这一市场领域,并于9月明确将目光锁定在伦敦大宗经纪商对亚洲股票的融资业务上。
讽刺一幕:拒绝了"AI股神",却仍将额度用到极限
这一事件中最具讽刺意味的细节在于:巴克莱此前曾以AI板块集中度风险为由,拒绝接受对冲基金Situational Awareness作为客户——而这一决定事后被证明是正确的。
Situational Awareness由Leopold Aschenbrenner创立,该基金通过总收益互换工具运行约4倍杠杆,主要通过高盛建立多AI基础设施、空软件股的头寸组合。今年7月AI板块回调时,追加保证金通知接踵而至,该基金被迫将全部公开持仓以约10%的折价抛售给Ken Griffin旗下的城堡投资,基金规模在数日内从约450亿美元骤降至约100亿美元。
然而,巴克莱虽然成功规避了这一年度最显眼的爆仓事件,却仍将对亚洲对冲基金的融资额度推至极限,甚至不得不从其他业务台借调资本。这说明,Situational Awareness的崩盘不过是整个市场通过少数几家交易商资产负债表共同押注同一AI主题这一系统性问题的最显眼症状,而非根源。
行业普遍承压:高盛、瑞银相继承认融资趋于饱和
巴克莱并非孤例。据彭博报道,高盛CFO Denis Coleman本月早些时候表示,股票融资需求持续超出行业可用容量;他在7月曾表示,大宗经纪和固定收益融资领域存在"远超我们愿意承接规模的需求"。瑞银CFO Todd Tuckner则在7月表示,该行股票资产负债表在大宗经纪业务上的使用正趋于"更为节制"。
彭博策略师Simon White早在6月便已发出预警,指出期货融资利率因总收益互换需求激增而急剧攀升,交易商通过期货和总收益互换向市场提供的杠杆敞口已达创纪录水平,股票库存升至2230亿美元高位,"交易商资产负债表可能因监管约束而面临供给瓶颈"。巴克莱此后的操作,正是对这一"供给瓶颈"的直接印证。
"加空仓"的把戏:总杠杆不降反升
当资产负债表空间告罄,华尔街给出的"解决方案"是:让客户加仓空头。据彭博报道,巴克莱及高盛等银行的交易员与对冲基金客户合作,通过鼓励后者持有更多空头头寸来降低大宗经纪账面上的资产负债表占用——空头所得资金可在内部用于为多头融资。
然而,高盛大宗经纪数据揭示了这一操作的实质。高盛的Lee Coppersmith在10月18日的周报中指出,自7月底以来,净杠杆的下降"几乎全部来自空头增加,而非多头减少"。多头杠杆仅微降0.5个百分点至128.8%,空头杠杆则大幅攀升8.0个百分点至85.1%,处于五年来第100百分位,整体总杠杆率约为214%,较Situational Awareness爆仓后不降反升。
瑞银交易台交易员Torsten Sippel在10月18日的周报中亦指出,上周市场走势"看起来像是仓位重置,而非全面股票清仓,与数月前Situational Awareness引发的去杠杆非常相似",并警告称,在对冲基金净敞口已降至五年来第30百分位、总杠杆仍处于第90百分位以上的背景下,"若盈亏压力持续,投资组合面临进一步去杠杆的脆弱性"。
Coppersmith亦坦言,若业绩压力持续,"通过抛售多头和回补空头进一步去杠杆的空间确实存在"。214%的总杠杆意味着,一旦多头和空头同时反向运动——正如7月AI基础设施股下跌、软件股反弹时所发生的那样——所谓的"对冲"将迅速失效。
丰厚回报驱动冒险:大宗经纪成营收引擎
为何要如此费力地突破限制?答案在于利润。据彭博预测,巴克莱股票业务预计将于本周四公布约8.65亿英镑(约12亿美元)的第三季度营收,这将是该行自2009年——即收购雷曼兄弟北美业务次年——以来最强劲的第三季度表现。
大宗经纪业务是今年华尔街股票营收的核心驱动力,而推动交易营收激增的市场波动,本身在很大程度上正是大宗经纪商所提供的杠杆所催生的。这形成了一个自我强化的闭环:银行向基金放贷,基金推高AI股价,AI波动带来交易营收,营收为大宗经纪业务提供更多资产负债表空间——直到这一循环反向运转。
目前,英国银行已在审查伦敦大宗经纪商的亚洲股票账簿,瑞银将上周的去杠杆走势定性为Situational Awareness爆仓的重演,而整体总杠杆仍接近历史高位。
风险提示及免责条款
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

10月22日会员早报:市场押注美国很快重启对伊打击 法国10年期国债收益率24年来首破5%

news:bf5bc3e70ea36a60d6565506 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T22:25:56+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T22:36:28.037572+00:00 · excerpt

原文
1、【市场押注美国很快重启对伊打击】五角大楼已要求中央司令部完成重启大规模作战的准备,美国增派第三个航母打击群赴中东;同时以军战机被曝抵近伊朗边境,伊朗南部锡里克21日夜传爆炸;国际油价正在为一场可能很快到来的打击定价。
2、【法国10年期国债收益率24年来首破5%】10月21日,法国10年期国债收益率盘中升破5%,为2002年7月以来首次;本周以来累计上行逾20个基点(即0.2个百分点),而全球主要经济体国债收益率同期平均只升了不到6个基点。法德10年期国债利差,也就是投资者借钱给法国比借给德国多要的那部分回报,是衡量法国风险溢价的温度计,盘中一度扩大到约159个基点,逼近本月初创下的15年高点。
3、【欧盟将推新工具:进口激增时可“立即”限制市场准入】当地时间10月21日,欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在斯特拉斯堡出席欧洲议会全会时宣布,欧委会将提出新的贸易工具,保护欧盟免受不公平竞争。一旦廉价进口激增、威胁欧洲产业,成员国可以“立即”限制其进入单一市场。冯德莱恩表示,欧洲必须能够“在全球以公平的条件竞争”。
4、【欧洲多国政府网站紧急下线】10月21日(周三),荷兰、芬兰、法国、德国、比利时等国的政府机构相继将网站下线避险,起因是PHP被曝出两个高危漏洞,细节在补丁就绪前提前泄露,黑客随即动手。PHP在能识别出编程语言的网站中占比约75%,WordPress、Drupal、Joomla、Magento等主流建站和电商平台都建在它上面。正因为PHP是这些平台的底层引擎,攻击者无需逐一锁定目标,扫一遍互联网就能批量找到存在漏洞的服务器。
5、【Meta设立无投票权新股为AI扩张向股市融资铺路】Meta于10月21日(周三)美股盘后发布三季报,同时宣布设立一类在纳斯达克上市、但不带投票权的C类普通股,用于资本融资、员工薪酬和潜在收购。今年Meta的资本支出最高可达1450亿美元,这一安排让它提前备好了向股市融资的工具,而且不会稀释创始人兼CEO扎克伯格的投票控制权。同日,Meta将2026年资本支出(含融资租赁本金)指引从1300亿至1450亿美元调整至1350亿至1450亿美元,下限上调50亿美元,上限不变;相比之下年初给出的区间“仅有”1150亿至1350亿美元,此后每个季度都在上调。

Meta因涉嫌在社交媒体上对儿童造成伤害,在澳大利亚面临集体诉讼

news:cb736b705b5c52c335fe0f9b · 发布时间 2026-10-22T00:28:38+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-22T00:31:01.377551+00:00 · body

原文
澳大利亚一家法院已受理一起针对Meta Platforms旗下公司(即Facebook和Instagram)的集体诉讼,指控这些社交媒体平台使儿童接触到有害内容,并通过算法使其沉迷其中。这可能是澳大利亚首例指控社交媒体危害用户——尤其是儿童和青少年——的诉讼。该集体诉讼代表八名原告提起,他们声称自己在18岁以下时曾受到Meta的伤害,并正在寻求赔偿。

欧洲最大软件公司SAP三季度营收首破100亿欧元,云积压订单增长28%再新高|财报见闻

news:d05adf1d1a55958dd48eb6b8 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T23:33:35+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T23:37:36.921735+00:00 · body

原文
SAP第三季度业绩全面超出预期,云业务加速增长叠加AI工具渗透率提升,令这家欧洲最大软件公司展示出对企业应用市场冲击的韧性。
10月21日美股盘后,软件公司SAP发布2026年第三季度财报,公司总收入达到102.70亿欧元,同比增长13%,不变汇率下增长12%,首次单季突破100亿欧元;非IFRS营业利润达到30.30亿欧元,同比增长18%,同样首次突破30亿欧元。
管理层强调,这反映出SAP云转型后的商业模式扩张性正在释放。三季度SAP云收入为66.68亿欧元,同比增长26%,不变汇率下增长25%,高于彭博汇编的分析师预期约65.7亿欧元。
其中Cloud ERP Suite收入达到59.24亿欧元,同比增长29%,不变汇率下增长28%,继续成为SAP增长最快、最重要的业务线。
衡量未来12个月云收入可见度的当前云积压订单(Current Cloud Backlog)达到241.44亿欧元,刷新公司历史最高记录,同比增长28%,不变汇率下增长26%。
这意味着尽管市场此前担心AI可能冲击传统SaaS软件模式,但至少在SAP的核心企业软件客户群中,云迁移和ERP现代化需求仍然稳固。
SAP同时更新了全年收入指引:公司预计2026年云收入将落在258亿至262亿欧元指引区间的上端,云和软件收入也将接近363亿至368亿欧元区间上端。公司维持全年非IFRS营业利润118亿至122亿欧元、自由现金流约100亿欧元的预期。
受此提振,SAP美股股价盘后一度涨至250美元,截至发稿涨幅回落至约2%。
三季度核心财务:收入、利润双线齐升
按IFRS口径,SAP第三季度总收入为102.70亿欧元,同比增长13%,按固定汇率计增长12%。
云收入同比增长26%,Cloud ERP Suite收入增速尤为突出,按固定汇率计达28%,至59.24亿欧元,成为增长的核心引擎。软件许可收入则下滑9%至1.47亿欧元,延续向云端迁移过程中传统许可业务萎缩的趋势。
利润层面,IFRS经营利润为29.30亿欧元,同比增长18%;非IFRS经营利润为30.30亿欧元,同比同样增长18%,经营利润率按非IFRS口径提升1.2个百分点至29.5%。税后净利润(IFRS)为22.69亿欧元,基本每股收益为1.96欧元,同比增长14%。
首席财务官Dominik Asam表示,季度总收入首次突破100亿欧元、非IFRS经营利润首次单季超过30亿欧元,体现了公司商业模式的规模效应与成本管控纪律。
值得注意的是,三季度云收入增速受益于若干一次性因素,主要包括此前陷入财务困境的客户恢复履约后带来的跨季收入补录。
此外,Reltio、Dremio和Prior Labs三项收购合计贡献收入4900万欧元,但对IFRS和非IFRS经营利润分别形成5900万欧元和3900万欧元的拖累。
云业务继续超预期,Cloud ERP Suite是增长主轴
三季度SAP云收入为66.68亿欧元,同比增长26%,不变汇率下增长25%。这一增速不仅显著高于公司整体收入增长,也高于市场预期,是本季财报最受关注的部分。
从结构看,SaaS/PaaS收入为66.12亿欧元,同比增长27%,不变汇率下增长26%;其中Cloud ERP Suite收入为59.24亿欧元,同比增长29%,不变汇率下增长28%。
相比之下,Extension Suite收入为6.88亿欧元,同比增长10%,不变汇率下增长8%;IaaS收入仅5600万欧元,同比下降27%。这进一步凸显SAP当前云业务的重心并非基础设施云,而是围绕企业核心流程的软件云化,尤其是ERP、财务、人力资源、供应链等关键业务系统。
云收入占总收入比例也在继续提升。三季度云收入占总收入约65%,而去年同期约为58%。这意味着SAP的收入结构正在进一步从传统许可证和支持服务,转向订阅式、可持续性更强的云模式。
云积压订单再创新高,AI工具加速落地
SAP三季度当前云积压订单达到241.44亿欧元,同比增长28%,不变汇率下增长26%。这一指标通常被视为未来12个月云收入的前瞻指标,因此对判断SAP云业务可持续性尤为关键。
管理层表示,"自主企业"(Autonomous Enterprise)战略不仅获得客户认可,而且正在被采用。CEO Christian Klein称,客户正在投资云、数据基础设施和Business AI,并认为Joule Work让企业转型的商业案例更具吸引力。
不过,SAP也提示,全年当前云积压订单增长预计将小幅放缓,并且这一判断基于第四季度宏观环境稳定的假设。换言之,当前订单表现强劲,但公司并未释放出“持续加速”的信号,而是更偏向稳健增长。
从客户案例看,本季继续有多家企业选择“RISE with SAP”,包括阿斯利康、英飞凌、Banco Bilbao、Aydem Enerji、NTN等;A5X、Bitzer、Rittal等选择“GROW with SAP”。这表明大型企业云迁移和中型企业云ERP导入仍在推进。
展望上调,全年云收入指引推至区间高端
SAP将2026年全年云收入预期调整至指引区间上沿,预计按固定汇率计收入为258亿至262亿欧元(增长23%至25%),较2025年的210.2亿欧元大幅增长。云与软件收入同样上调至363亿至368亿欧元区间上沿(增长12%至13%)。
非IFRS经营利润预期维持不变,仍为118亿至122亿欧元(按固定汇率计增长13%至17%);全年自由现金流目标约100亿欧元亦保持不变。
SAP同时提示汇率风险:以2026年9月30日汇率(1欧元兑1.14美元)测算,全年云收入增速将受到约1.5个百分点的负向汇率影响,非IFRS经营利润增速则将受到约2个百分点的拖累。
对于中期展望,SAP预计2026年按固定汇率计总收入增速将与2025年(10.6%)持平,并于2027年加速。公司同时预计,随着云迁移步伐加快,未来数年软件支持收入的下滑速度将进一步加快。
股价从低谷反弹,回购计划稳步推进
今年早些时候,市场对AI工具可能取代传统企业应用软件的担忧引发软件股大规模抛售,此轮被市场称为"SaaS末日"(SaaSpocalypse)的调整令SAP股价承压,SAP股价从7月23日的低点累计反弹逾60%。
回购层面,SAP于2026年1月宣布规模最高达100亿欧元、有效期至2027年12月31日的股份回购计划。截至2026年9月30日,公司已在该计划下以平均164.79欧元的价格累计回购25,205,983股,累计耗资约42亿欧元。
三季度SAP经营现金流为19.20亿欧元,同比增长28%;自由现金流为17.18亿欧元,同比增长36%。前三季度经营现金流为85.86亿欧元,同比增长9%;自由现金流为79.68亿欧元,同比增长11%。
风险提示及免责条款
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

Meta ordered to pay $25 billion penalty to New Mexico in data privacy case

news:d7044b3a88444109efb8f903 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T17:27:51.153000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T17:35:27.855710+00:00 · body

原文
Oct 21 (Reuters) - A judge in New Mexico ordered Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab to pay $25 billion on Wednesday after a jury found the company had misled consumers in a case arising from allegations that a political ​consulting firm involved in Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign obtained data from millions of Facebook users without their consent.

New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez said it was one of the largest, if not ‌the largest, single state verdict against a company in American history.

"Facebook's wrongdoing — over the course of years and systematically broadcast to the public — goes to the heart of Facebook's core business practices," Judge Francis Mathew wrote in his order following the verdict.

Mathew found that a penalty of more than $219 billion was warranted, based on state law, but he reduced the figure to $25 billion.

In a statement, C.J. Mahoney, Meta's chief legal officer, said the company is confident it will win on appeal.

“This ruling, and the Attorney General's approach to this enforcement, makes it all but ​impossible to do business in the state of New Mexico," Mahoney said. "At its core, this lawsuit seeks to impose a tax on speech to enforce new rules for what people can say online."

The company had previously ​said a penalty in the billions of dollars risked violating its constitutional rights to due process and protection from excessive fines.

The penalty is the largest levied against the tech ⁠giant in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal. In 2019, the company was hit with a $5 billion penalty by the US Federal Trade Commission stemming from the same scandal.

Six other states settled their lawsuits related to Cambridge Analytica for $459.2 ​million as part of a $17.1 billion multistate settlement Meta reached in August to resolve states' claims that the company's platforms had harmed teen mental health.

New Mexico's attorney general had sued Meta in 2021 following revelations that ​Cambridge Analytica had harvested personal data from as many as 87 million Facebook users through a third-party app.

The state accused Meta of lying to Facebook users in New Mexico about who had access to their data, how the company handles hate speech and misinformation posted on the platform and other internal policies. The company knew that third parties had broad access to users' personal data, and it tolerated hate speech or other harmful content when it benefited the company's bottom line, the state said.

Cambridge Analytica, now defunct, worked for Trump's successful presidential campaign ​in 2016, and gained access to the personal information from millions of Facebook accounts for the purposes of voter profiling and targeting. It obtained that information without users' consent from a researcher who had been allowed by Facebook to deploy an ​app on its social media network.

"It has been a long time coming holding Big Tech accountable," Torrez told a press conference in Albuquerque after Wednesday's ruling. "I think today's judgment is a clear break with that past and a very clear warning to those in ‌this space ⁠and beyond that we intend to protect our people and protect our consumers."

Analyst Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson & Co, called the ruling costly but unlikely to impact the company's value.

"Meta is worth nearly two trillion dollars, and will likely continue to appeal these cases and drag them out," Luria said.

Legal experts and financial analysts said the penalty was likely to face a lengthy battle on appeal.

Jurors on September 25 found that 26 of 29 statements made by the company and its leadership on those issues were misleading. They said the company had committed more than 43 million violations of New Mexico’s consumer protection laws, based on the number of Facebook users or New Mexico ​residents who were the audience for each misleading statement.

State law ​allows a penalty of up to $5,000 per violation, and ⁠directs that all of the money go to New Mexico's school system, Torrez told reporters after the verdict. At a hearing on October 1, Randi McGinn, a lawyer for New Mexico, had asked Mathew to award the state between $35 billion and $40 billion, saying that would be supported by the US Constitution's protections on due process and the jury's verdict.

"This court ​should speak to Meta in the only language it understands, which is money, and the value of its stock price," McGinn said.

In court filings, Meta urged Mathew to ​cap the penalties at $3.45 billion, saying ⁠a higher penalty ran the risk of scaring businesses out of the state. The evidence showed that Meta does not sell user data and New Mexico did not prove that any consumer had actually been misled, the company said in court filings.

Daryl Lim, an associate dean at Penn State Dickinson Law, said that while the US Constitution generally protects against excessive fines, because of the way New Mexico law is written, the large size of the penalty does not automatically mean it could be overturned.

The ​verdict was the second in six months by a Santa Fe jury in a lawsuit brought by the state of New Mexico against ​Meta Platforms.

In the first trial, which ended in March, a Santa Fe jury found Meta misled users about young users’ safety on its Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp platforms and ordered the company to pay $375 million in civil penalties. After a second phase of that trial, a judge directed the ​company to pay $567 million into a New Mexico fund for teen mental health and ordered Meta to implement measures to protect teen Facebook and Instagram users in New Mexico.

Kalshi to Allow Leveraged Futures Bets With Bitcoin-Backed Loans

news:ec10d56f5b6838b5d8753940 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T14:26:12.851000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T14:36:41.588469+00:00 · body

原文
Prediction markets platform Kalshi Inc. will offer some clients the ability to post collateral for leveraged perpetual-futures trades using cryptocurrencies, under a new arrangement with digital-asset custodian BitGo Holdings Inc.

Customers of Kalshi Prime, the company’s US-registered futures commission merchant, will be able to borrow against digital assets held at BitGo and use the proceeds to fund margin positions on futures traded on Kalshi’s main exchange, the company said in a statement on Wednesday.

Under a tri-party collateral management structure, there are typically three parties involved: a borrower, a lender, and an agent who handles the collateral. The loans will be provided by Kalshi Katalyst, a lending affiliate of Kalshi Prime, and secured against assets deposited at BitGo Bank & Trust.

Cryptocurrencies eligible for use against the loans will include Bitcoin, Ether or stablecoins considered compliant with the Genius Act, Kalshi Prime Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bandman said in an interview. Other custodians are expected to be added to Kalshi’s network in due course.

“What we wanted to do was make it possible for customers to stay in crypto,” Bandman said, citing examples such as investors who’d prefer not to exit their Bitcoin holdings or a Latin American company that relies on US-dollar stablecoins for its business operations.

Kalshi began offering perpetual futures — futures contracts that have no expiry date — tied to gold, silver and cryptocurrencies earlier this year. It’s also sought permission from regulators to list perpetual-style products tied to oil, as well as US stocks. Kalshi Klear, its clearinghouse, applied to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer margin on select event contracts last month.

The move could make Kalshi more attractive to crypto-native trading firms and “whales,” Bandman said, referring to individuals with large digital-asset holdings. Those traders represent a slice of the market where the US exchange may have a structural disadvantage compared to rival Polymarket, an offshore exchange that runs on blockchain.

“I built this because I was thinking about digitally native customers who are active and who might already be trading perpetual futures in some of the unregulated offshore markets,” Bandman added. “That was kind of the audience that I was envisioning, but now that we’ve built it, what’s fascinating is hearing these other use cases come out of the woodwork.”

IBM Posts 5% Sales Growth, Says Infrastructure Deals Came Back

news:efc5b4cc6dbac93f76bb5ba1 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:10:18.517000+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:14:12.670298+00:00 · body

原文
International Business Machines Corp. reported sales that topped analysts’ estimates, saying it had recovered most of the infrastructure deals that were delayed earlier this year.

Sales increased about 5% to $17.1 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 30, the company said Wednesday in a IBM RELEASES THIRD-QUARTER RESULTS. IBM’s infrastructure unit, which includes mainframe servers, expanded 4% to $3.7 billion. Both were ahead of analysts’ average projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

About two-thirds of the mainframe and associated software deals that slipped earlier this year have since been inked, Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said in an interview.

In July, IBM said that customers were temporarily shifting their spending to chips and servers amid AI-fueled shortages, harming its mainframe and software units. This fueled panic among investors already concerned that artificial intelligence tools will disrupt many software incumbents and sent the shares down 25%, the worst day since at least 1968.

IBM’s closely watched software unit expanded 8.3% to $7.8 billion, ahead of the $7.64 billion anticipated by Wall Street. Big Blue has sought to refashion itself as a high-growth software company through major acquisitions of Red Hat, HashiCorp and Confluent.

For the full year, the company now expects free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion. Previously, it expected about $1 billion. Profit, excluding some items, was $2.95 a share in the third quarter, compared with the average estimate of $2.86.

The shares gained about 5% in extended trading after closing at $251.46 in New York. The stock declined 15% this year through Wednesday’s close.

IBM Reports Higher Profit as Some Delayed Deals Come Through

news:f5ce9762063decd6563e7a90 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:19:00+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:24:12.577743+00:00 · body

原文
International Business Machines reported a higher third-quarter profit and growing revenue across its software and infrastructure segments, as the company looks to prove to investors that its disappointing second-quarter showing was just a blip.

IBM’s IBM 3.94%increase; up pointing triangle second-quarter profit was hit by mainframe deals that fell through, weighing on the company’s software and infrastructure segments. Around two-thirds of those deals have since closed during the third quarter, and IBM is optimistic about most of the rest, Chief Financial Officer Jim Kavanaugh said.

“We feel pretty good,” he said in an interview. “With the exception of maybe one or two, they’re all still in play.”

Investors should understand the second-quarter shortfall as a story about timing rather than demand destruction, Kavanaugh said, adding that IBM hasn’t seen customers moving away from mainframes, the servers it sells to large enterprises in sectors like banking and retail.

“We do not see anyone getting off of our mainframe platform, and therefore the associated mainframe software stack on top of it,” Kavanaugh said. The current z17 mainframe cycle has added about $1 billion in incremental revenue compared to the prior cycle just six quarters in, he said.

IBM reported a third-quarter profit of $2.19 billion, or $2.30 a share, compared with a profit of $1.74 billion, or $1.84 a share, a year earlier. The earnings per share figure includes a one-cent negative impact from discontinued operations.

Stripping out certain one-time items, adjusted earnings were $2.95 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting $2.85 a share.

Revenue rose to $17.1 billion, up from $16.33 billion a year prior and beating analyst expectations of $16.82 billion.

The gains were largest in IBM’s software segment, where revenue grew 8% to $7.8 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of $7.66 billion. Revenue from infrastructure, which includes IBM’s mainframes, rose 4% to $3.71 billion, while consulting revenue was roughly flat at $5.34 billion.

The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 4% to 5% revenue growth.

Kavanaugh said IBM also plans to guide for full-year software growth of 7% to 8%, lifting the low end of the range from 6%. The lower bound assumes IBM closes around 10% or more of the slipped second-quarter deals, while the upper bound represents all the deals closing.

IBM also said it now expects free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion this year, up from its previous guidance for a roughly $1 billion increase.

德州仪器营收指引超预期

news:fd41807475952bfcab5bb63d · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:02:15+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:04:33.339595+00:00 · body

原文
全球最大模拟芯片和嵌入式处理芯片制造商德州仪器给出了强劲的当期营收指引,受汽车和工业客户需求提振。第三季度营收同比增长28%至60.6亿美元,高于分析师平均预期的59.3亿美元;每股收益(EPS)为2.62美元。
公司预计,截至12月的季度营收将在58亿-63亿美元之间,分析师预期57.3亿美元。当期EPS将为2.45-2.79美元,分析师预期为2.26美元。
在人工智能泡沫担忧拖累芯片板块之际,这一前景对整个芯片市场而言是个积极信号。德州仪器表示,其工业、汽车和数据中心业务均出现“广泛增长”,尤其受益于客户群体多元化,并非所有客户都处于AI基础设施建设的风口浪尖。

$TXN | TEXAS INSTRUMENTS Q3 26 EARNINGS:

tg:marketfeed/1062077 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:09:30+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:13:04.684634+00:00 · body

原文
$TXN | TEXAS INSTRUMENTS Q3 26 EARNINGS:

• REV: $6.06B (EST $5.93B)
• EPS: $2.62 (EST $2.42)
• CAPEX: $463M (EST $650.6M)
• SEES Q4 REVENUE: $5.80B TO $6.30B (EST $5.73B)
• SEES Q4 EPS: $2.45 TO $2.79 [...](https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/2112999670759014752)

IBM Q3 2026 EARNINGS $IBM

tg:marketfeed/1062080 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:09:46+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:13:14.708300+00:00 · body

原文
IBM Q3 2026 EARNINGS $IBM

OPER EPS $2.95, EST. $2.86
REV. $17.10B, EST. $16.83B
SOFTWARE REV. $7.80B, EST. $7.64B
CONSULTING REV. $5.34B, EST. $5.39B
FCF $3.03B, EST. $2.63B
STILL SEES FY REV. AT CONSTANT FX +4% TO +5%, EST. +4.12% [...](https://x.com/financialjuice/status/2112999751029551141)

IBM Q3 CONSULTING REVENUE $5.34 BLN, SLIGHTLY BELOW ESTIMATE OF $5.39 BLN, WITH

tg:marketfeed/1062091 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:12:15+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:13:52.771595+00:00 · body

原文
IBM Q3 CONSULTING REVENUE $5.34 BLN, SLIGHTLY BELOW ESTIMATE OF $5.39 BLN, WITH FREE CASH FLOW $3.03 BLN, ABOVE ESTIMATE, AND THE COMPANY STILL SEES FY REVENUE GROWTH AT CONSTANT FX OF 4% TO 5% [...](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2113000339263889621)

$IBM | IBM Q3 26 EARNINGS:

tg:marketfeed/1062094 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:13:16+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:21:54.910118+00:00 · body

原文
$IBM | IBM Q3 26 EARNINGS:

• REV: $17.10B (EST $16.83B)
• OPER EPS: $2.95 (EST $2.86)
• SOFTWARE REVENUE: $7.80B (EST $7.64B)
• CONSULTING REVENUE: $5.34B (EST $5.39B)
• STILL SEES FY REV GROWTH AT CONSTANT CURRENCY: +4% TO +5% (EST +4.12%) [...](https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/2113000615098167693)

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS CEO SAYS Q3 DATA CENTER REVENUE WAS UP ABOUT 95% YOY AND GREW

tg:marketfeed/1062117 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:38:31+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:44:34.692668+00:00 · body

原文
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS CEO SAYS Q3 DATA CENTER REVENUE WAS UP ABOUT 95% YOY AND GREW ABOUT 20% SEQUENTIALLY, WITH THE CFO SAYING Q3 EPS INCLUDED A 1-CENT REDUCTION NOT IN ORIGINAL GUIDANCE DUE TO DISCRETE TAX ITEMS AND THAT END-OF-Q3 INVENTORY WAS $4.7 BLN, UP $67 MLN FROM THE PRIOR QUARTER - CONF CALL [...](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2113006989014159853)

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS CEO SAYS Q3 DATA CENTER REVENUE WAS UP ABOUT 95% YOY AND GREW

tg:marketfeed/1062119 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T20:38:47+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T20:44:41.463272+00:00 · body

原文
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS CEO SAYS Q3 DATA CENTER REVENUE WAS UP ABOUT 95% YOY AND GREW ABOUT 20% SEQUENTIALLY, WITH THE CFO SAYING Q3 EPS INCLUDED A 1-CENT REDUCTION NOT IN ORIGINAL GUIDANCE DUE TO DISCRETE TAX ITEMS AND THAT END-OF-Q3 INVENTORY WAS $4.7 BLN, UP $67 MLN FROM THE PRIOR QUARTER - CONF CALL [...](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2113007055175049379)

NEW ZEALAND CPI (Q/Q) Q3: 0.7% (EST 0.8%; PREV 1.5%)

tg:marketfeed/1062153 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T21:46:20+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T21:48:52.212510+00:00 · body

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NEW ZEALAND CPI (Q/Q) Q3: 0.7% (EST 0.8%; PREV 1.5%)

- CPI (Y/Y): 3.7% (EST 3.8%; PREV 4.1%)
- TRADEABLE CPI (Q/Q): 0.2% (EST 0.2%; PREV 2.7%)
- NON-TRADEABLE CPI (Q/Q): 1.0% (EST 1.2%; PREV 0.6%) [...](https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/2113024043133849627)

스페이스X 와 SMCI 덕분에 아시아 증시는 오늘 활기차게 반등하긴했으나 미국 시장에서는 아직 의구심이 깔끔하게 해소된건 아닌 모양새. 나스닥도 아직은 0.3~0.5%에서 갈팡질팡. 무엇보다도 내일 새벽에 TSLA, META 등 빅테크를 비롯해서 IBM , LAM 등 AI 관련주들의

x:2112995581429993767 · 发布时间 2026-10-21T19:52:58+00:00 · 首次入库 2026-10-21T19:53:07.445360+00:00 ·

原文
스페이스X 와 SMCI 덕분에 아시아 증시는 오늘 활기차게 반등하긴했으나 미국 시장에서는 아직 의구심이 깔끔하게 해소된건 아닌 모양새. 나스닥도 아직은 0.3~0.5%에서 갈팡질팡.

무엇보다도 내일 새벽에 TSLA, META 등 빅테크를 비롯해서 IBM , LAM 등 AI 관련주들의 실적이 나올 예정이다보니 아무래도 확인하고 가자는 관망심리가 나타난다해도 전혀 이상치 않은 상황. 

일단 코스피는 바닥권에서 저점은 높여놨으니 한 숨은 돌려놓은 상황이긴한데 앞서 말했듯 시장에 관망심리가 팽배한 상황인지라 일단은 내일 새벽에 결과를 까봐야 알 듯. 

그래도 실적 시즌답게 SPCX와 SMCI 가 크게 한 건 해준건 답답한 매크로 때문에 끌려다니던 가뭄 같던 시장에 단비 같았음. 다른 빅테크들도 힘을 보태줄 수 있길 바라며 오늘은 이만 쉬러 가야겠음. 다들 고생 많았슈 굿밤-! 
__________
26.10.21 수요일 구독 콘텐츠 업데이트 목록

1. 20261021 NXT 프리마켓 머니플로우
2. 20261021 뇌동매매를 줄이는 법
3. 20261021 스페이스X 차트 코멘트

【华泰资产配置】法债风波还是欧债危机2.0?

capduck-2c52532d9a2bd9db7b5d97ad830a35befe830c99 · 发布时间 原始发布时间未提供 · 入库 2026-10-21T14:36:07.512656+00:00 · pending

原文
**核心观点**

近期法国主权债务风险升温,法德10年期国债利差一度突破140BP、评级接连下调,欧债危机2.0担忧再起。我们认为,财政、民生诉求、政治碎片化以及国际资金配置变化等因素下法国财政困局短期难解。但欧元区也尚不具备2011年欧债危机的恶性循环条件:法国基本面稳健、风险未广泛传染、银行资本充实,防火墙完善,系统性危机概率不高。法债风险溢价或维持高位,短期冲击欧股与欧元,关注预算案表决与2027年大选。策略上,各类资产继续以控制仓位为主,继续增加短债、红利等类现金资产占比,提高操作灵活性。后续关注美国中选、AI企业三季报业绩表现。

**核心主题:法债风波还是欧债危机2.0?**

近期法国主权债务风险升温,法德10年期国债利差一度突破140BP,评级接连下调,欧债危机2.0担忧加剧。本轮困局源于债务积累、利率中枢抬升与整顿受阻,短期难解:一是财政整顿空间有限,2025年债务率升至115.7%,税负居OECD前列,加税或使财政收入进入拉弗曲线右侧,社保刚性叠加低息债到期置换,利息负担加重;二是民生诉求与减赤冲突,抗议游行成为股债汇三杀导火索之一;三是政治碎片化叠加2027年大选,540亿欧元整顿方案或难获跨党派共识;四是截至2025年末,日本投资者持有约5%法债,后续日本资金回流本土或加剧法债抛售压力。但欧元区尚不具备上轮危机的恶性循环条件:法国经常账户平衡、银行稳健,意西与德利差远低于危机时期,风险未广泛传染,银行盈利与资本充足率居高位,TPI、ESM、OMT防火墙完善,系统性危机概率有限。配置上,法债风险短期主要冲击欧洲市场,欧股承压、欧元跑输美元;极端情形下避险资金流向德债、美债与美元,若倒逼美联储转向降息,对黄金和美债更友好。

**市场状况评估:美国10月加息预期降温,国内政策利率“换锚”**

国内方面,上周数据显示外需维持韧性,价格走势分化,内需持续修复。海外方面,中东局势升级推高油价,美国通胀压力上行,美联储官员暗示10月按兵不动。国内货币政策方面,政策利率“换锚”,央行延续适度宽松取向,持续投放中期流动性。财政政策方面,超长期特别国债发行收官,地方债发行提速,民生保障政策持续完善。地产政策在供需两端持续发力。

**配置建议:海外AI基建信用风险发酵,市场情绪降温**

海外AI融资风险发酵,全球科技调整带动市场情绪降温。向后看,我们认为美国中选落地前,大类资产能见度偏低,市场短期或维持高波环境。策略上,各类资产继续以控制仓位为主,继续增加短债、红利等类现金资产占比,提高操作灵活性。后续关注美国中选、AI企业三季报业绩表现。中债方面,市场累计了一定的涨幅,降准降息预期暂未落地且监管态度有变,需要增强灵活性。A股方面,建议继续以中低仓位或观望应对。美债建议适当缩短久期,长端波段操作。美股建议适度均衡配置,AI核心资产逢低布局,并留有一定现金/短债应对市场波动。

**后续关注:国内重要会议、国内外经济数据**

国内:1)中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第五次全体会议;

海外:1)美国10月PMI初值。

风险提示:美国通胀超预期,美国就业市场超预期放缓,地缘关系持续紧张。

**正文法债风波还是欧债危机2.0?近期法国主权债务风险持续升温,法德10年期国债利差一度突破140BP、法国主权信用评级接连下调,市场对法国财政可持续性的担忧明显加剧。本轮法债调整发生在政府债务持续积累、全球利率中枢抬升以及法国财政整顿反复受阻的背景下,财政基本面与政治约束之间的矛盾愈发突出。与此同时,法国作为欧元区第二大经济体,其主权信用风险也引发了市场对新一轮欧债危机的担忧。**为此,我们尝试对法国财政问题与欧债危机2.0发生可能性进行探讨,以供投资者参考。

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**向后看,我们认为法国债务困局短期难解,财政、政治与资金结构的三重约束或持续制约法债利率下行空间:
第一,法国财政压力已处高位,且财政整顿空间有限,债务负担或将持续加重。**2025年法国政府债务率已升至115.7%,财政赤字长期高企,债务可持续性压力较大。更为棘手的是,法国财政收支两端的调整空间均较为有限,未来财政状况难以快速改善。①收入端,法国税负位居OECD前列,进一步加税或导致财政收入进入拉弗曲线右侧,财政增收空间有限。②支出端,法国养老金、医疗等社会保障支出占比较高,且人口老龄化进一步强化支出刚性,财政紧缩难度较大;与此同时,法国存量低息国债陆续到期+债务滚续及新增融资需求,高息置换或将持续推升利息支出,进一步加重刚性财政负担。

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**第二、近日法国各地抗议游行,更是凸显了社会缓解生活成本压力、改善公共服务的诉求与债务压力之间的矛盾,也成为法国股债汇三杀的导火索之一。**当前能源价格上涨及前期通胀的累积效应持续挤压法国居民生活水平,据欧央行测算,2026年法国居民实际可支配收入购买力或将继续同比下降0.4%,民众对社会保障和公共服务的需求进一步增强。然而,法国政府的高赤字、高债务问题与民生诉求形成直接冲突,社会不满情绪及抗议活动则进一步加大法国政府财政紧缩的执行阻力,使其陷入改善民生与削减赤字的两难困境。

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**第三,政治碎片化+2027年总统大选,进一步加大法国政府财政整顿难度。**2024年马克龙提前解散国民议会并重新举行选举后,执政阵营失去稳定多数,政府更替频繁,财政预算反复陷入政治博弈。当前勒科尔尼政府提出540亿欧元财政整顿方案,计划将2027年赤字率从5.4%降至5.0%,但方案涉及养老金、医疗、公共服务及税收等敏感领域,叠加2027年总统大选临近,反对党支持紧缩方案的政治动力不足,财政整顿或难以形成跨党派共识。值得注意的是,10月6日总统候选人勒庞提出未来五年约1400亿欧元的财政节支目标,试图增强市场对其财政政策的信心,但其同时主张降低部分税负、调整养老金制度,意味着实际节支还需覆盖减税及福利承诺带来的财政成本,加大了未来法国财政状况改善效果的不确定性。

**第四,国际资金配置变化或对法债形成边际压力。**法债海外投资者占比较高,其中截至2025年末,日本投资者持有约5%的法国国债,明显高于意大利国债的1.6%。随着日本利率正常化、本土国债收益率上升,海外债券配置吸引力有所下降,2026年9月日本投资者已转为净卖出海外债券,法债需求或边际减弱,并进一步推高法国融资成本。

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**2011年欧债危机爆发的关键在于市场形成了“主权债务危机→公债资产缩水→银行部门资产负债表恶化→银行流动性紧缩→信贷衰退→经济衰退→债务负担加剧”的恶性循环(《重温欧债危机始末与当下启示》,2022年6月21日)。相比之下,当前欧元区尚不具备上述恶性循环形成的充分条件,新一轮系统性欧债危机发生的可能性相对有限,具体有以下几点因素:
1)法国自身基本面相对稳健,短期爆发主权债务危机的风险低于上一轮危机中的部分南欧国家。**2010—2012年欧债危机期间,部分南欧国家经常账户大幅赤字、对外部融资依赖较高,叠加2008年全球金融危机后银行资本薄弱,容易形成资本外流、银行风险与主权债务恶化的负反馈。相比之下,法国当前经常账户基本平衡、居民储蓄率较高,银行体系资本及流动性状况也相对稳健,尚不具备当年部分南欧国家外部失衡与金融脆弱性集中暴露的条件,短期陷入主权债务危机的风险或相对有限。

**2)欧元区整体财政风险相对可控,尚不具备上一轮欧债危机中多国债务风险集中爆发的条件。**葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙债务率尚未进入历史极端区间,多数实现初级财政盈余、债务率趋稳或下降。且尽管法国、比利时、德国、奥地利及荷兰等传统核心国家转为初级财政赤字,但德国、荷兰及奥地利债务负担相对可控,比利时虽债务压力较大,但经济体量有限。财政风险更多集中于法国,而非欧元区普遍性的债务恶化,难以形成上一轮危机中多国主权债务风险相互强化的局面。

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**3)欧元区经济基本面较上一轮危机更具韧性,为抑制系统性债务风险提供支撑。**9月欧元区制造业PMI升至52.9,连续处于扩张区间,经济意外指数也处于2023年初以来高位。相对稳健的基本面有助于支撑财政收入与政府偿债能力,降低经济衰退与主权债务风险形成负反馈、进而触发系统性欧债危机的可能性。

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**4)法债风险也尚未出现明显的广泛传染迹象,欧元区主权债市场整体压力仍然有限。**上一轮欧债危机期间,希腊债务问题迅速向意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙等国蔓延,主要成员国主权利差同步大幅走阔。相比之下,当前尽管法德利差已接近上一轮欧债危机峰值,但意大利、西班牙等其他主要经济体与德国的国债利差仍远低于彼时水平,尚未出现广泛的主权信用风险重定价。同时,欧元区主权债系统性压力指数(SovCISS)仍处于相对低位,欧元区整体债务市场压力或有限。

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**5)欧元区尚未出现上一轮危机式的广泛评级下调,主权信用风险仍呈现明显分化。**2025年以来,法国、比利时、奥地利及芬兰等国相继遭遇评级下调或展望转负面,主要反映各国自身财政失衡及债务负担上升的风险;但与此同时,意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙及希腊等上一轮危机国家的评级反而有所改善,尚未形成多国信用质量同步恶化的局面。值得注意的是,法国评级恶化已传导至欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF),不过其已停止新增救助,当前主要由欧洲稳定机制(ESM)承担其过往职能。目前DBRS仍维持ESM及欧盟AAA稳定展望,法国信用风险或尚未实质性削弱欧洲整体救助体系的信用基础。

**6)欧洲银行体系盈利及资本实力明显增强,短期内难以成为主权债务风险的放大器。**上一轮欧债危机中,欧元区国债价格下跌侵蚀银行资产负债表,迫使银行进一步抛售国债,形成风险负反馈。当前尽管法国巴黎银行CDS利差已有小幅上行,但升幅明显小于法国主权CDS,主权信用风险向银行体系传导尚不显著。同时,欧元区银行盈利能力处于近20年高位,普通股一级资本充足率由2015年约13.5%升至2025年16%,风险吸收能力明显增强,当前银行体系重演上一轮危机负反馈循环的可能性或偏低。

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**7)欧元区政策防火墙较上一轮危机更加完善,有助于阻断主权债务风险扩散。**当前已形成TPI、ESM及OMT三重防线:TPI抑制无序债市波动及跨国传染;ESM通过预防性信用额度、贷款及国债市场支持缓解融资困难;OMT则可配合ESM,为严重债务危机提供附条件购债支持。法国虽已进入超额赤字程序,但只要未被认定未有效落实欧盟要求的财政纠正措施,仍可能符合TPI资格,政策救助空间依然存在。

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**总体而言,法国高债务、高赤字及财政整顿受阻等问题短期难解,法债风险溢价仍可能维持高位,但欧元区其他成员国基本面相对稳健,主权风险尚未广泛传染,叠加银行体系韧性较强及政策防火墙完善,系统性欧债危机发生的可能性相对较低。不过,近期市场对法债风险的进一步定价,仍然可能扰动投资者情绪,抑制风险偏好,短期关注法国抗议游行和2027年预算案表决情况。尾部风险情形下,若主权债务风险持续升级,欧洲高债务国家国债利差可能同步走阔,并通过银行资产减值、融资成本上升及信贷收缩向金融体系和实体经济传导,对欧洲金融市场及经济增长形成较大冲击。**尤其需要警惕2027年4月法国总统大选前后,政治格局变化及财政政策调整可能引发新一轮风险重定价,或成为法债风险集中释放的重要窗口。

**对资产配置而言,法债风险短期主要冲击欧洲市场,或体现为欧洲股市整体承压、法国股市相对德国等更多折价、欧元跑输美元等。后续若极端情景下欧债危机2.0爆发,大类资产或进入避险需求+美国降息预期主导的市场环境,全球避险资金或流向德国国债、美国国债及美元、日元等避险资产。如果危机引发全球性冲击并导致美联储也转向降息,预计会限制美元走强的幅度,对黄金和美债更为友好。本周配置建议1)大类资产:海外AI融资风险发酵,全球科技调整带动市场情绪降温。向后看,我们认为美国中选落地前,大类资产能见度偏低,市场短期或维持高波环境。策略上,各类资产继续以控制仓位为主,继续增加短债、红利等类现金资产占比,提高操作灵活性。后续关注美国中选、AI企业三季报业绩表现。2)国内债市:**金融街论坛年会官宣政策利率“换锚”,激发市场乐观情绪,但金融时报提醒不宜过度解读。向后看,内生融资需求偏弱、资金松和机构欠配决定了债市逆转风险不大,不过机构行为趋同可能放大波动,但调整仍是配置机会。近日利差快速压缩后,**操作上,市场累积了一定的涨幅,降准降息预期暂未落地且监管态度有变,需要增强灵活性。建议维持超长利率债+5年左右高等级信用债+存单的基本组合,并在政金债、超长地方债等品种中继续挖掘相对机会。3)国内股市:筹码逻辑是主线,当前不稳定筹码的出清尚未结束,暂不期待一次性反转。**后续关注点是美联储议息会议、量能、换手率、关键点位,不过当前我们更建议继续以中低仓位或观望应对,直到市场放量或合力趋稳向好。配置上,建议继续以红利高股息作为底仓,关注银行、核电、水电及煤炭等方向;非机构重仓的主题机会预期更活跃;科技品种可小仓位、分多日尝试回补,优先关注三季报业绩兑现、估值明显回落的国产算力、光通信及上游涨价材料;独立景气方向等待市场企稳后逐步参与,关注创新药、军工及造船海工;同时适度博弈地缘、政策和自主可控方向的交易机会。

**4)美债:美国**9月CPI、PPI双双超彭博一致预期,确认通胀压力,不过上周AI交易降温,避险资金买盘带动美债利率高位回落。本周初在欧债情绪传染、油价上涨以及股市风险偏好回暖等影响下,美债利率止跌回升。**向前看,中选前美债或适度转向积极,AI监管收紧、地缘战略僵持、财政扩张空间收窄等预期对美债形成一定支撑,关注10月FOMC美联储表态,11月财政部发债等是否触发利率进一步下跌。**中选后,地缘不确定性或有所扩大,油价上行等尾部风险仍存,中长期看,AI融资挤出、发达国家债务困境、能源供给冲击、经济过热风险等结构性矛盾仍在,美债利率波动中枢仍在抬升。操作上,建议适当缩短久期,长端波段操作。

**5)美股:**AI交易降温与利率回落带动美股风格反转,10月以来科技抱团资金获利了结,消费、医疗等板块明显修复,美股市场广度改善。Coreweave股债双杀引发市场对债务风险担忧,不过其主要通过子公司SPV融资,一定程度上隔离了母公司的信用风险,且目前B200、H100租赁价格仍在上涨,收入端并未明显恶化,短期信用风险或有限。不过结构上更利好信用等级更高的头部云厂商。AI链仍是三季报核心关注点,台积电、阿斯麦业绩显示硬件景气度维持高位。节奏上看,中选前美股或季节性偏弱,11月不确定性落地后情绪或转暖。**建议适度均衡配置,AI核心资产逢低布局,并留有一定现金/短债应对市场波动。6)商品:**强美元与高利率仍是金价核心制约,短期磨底震荡,重启上涨有待利率、油价回落等触发剂。铜宏观层面偏逆风,美国铜关税进展仍不明朗,跨市场套利交易有所抬头,智利铜矿罢工结束,供应担忧有所缓解,铜价短期或延续高位震荡。供给受限+库存去化+炼油产能受限+油运涨价,地缘降温前油价或难以大幅回落。地产政策转向宽松,不过多为需求端刺激,对实物工作量传导或相对有限,黑色系或维持震荡;蒙煤通关量有望恢复,旺季到来前,山西推动煤矿复产,双焦盘面偏弱。

**市场状况评估**

国内:上周数据显示外需维持韧性,价格走势分化,内需持续修复。高频方面,水泥供需延续修复。消费方面,地铁客运量同比增幅收窄,国内航班量同比降幅扩大,汽车消费仍偏弱。地产方面,新房、二手房累计成交同比下行,挂牌量价环比小幅下降,一线冰山指数环比延续下行,高能级城市中上海成交相对较强,土地成交面积与成交总价同比转负,溢价率回落,二线城市实时成交偏强。外需方面,港口吞吐量同比回升,干散货运价下跌,出口集装箱运价小幅上涨,韩国、越南出口同比增幅维持韧性。生产端来看,工业方面,铁路、公路货运同比增幅扩大,行业开工分化,焦化、半/全钢胎开工率同比降幅收窄,地炼开工率同比增幅基本稳定,化工链开工率整体偏弱。建筑业方面,水泥供需同比回升,黑色供给低位回升,需求仍偏弱,沥青开工延续低位,PVC开工率同比降幅收窄,专项债发行进度有所追赶。价格方面,原油、铜均价上涨,铝价下跌,焦炭期货均价上涨、铁矿石价格下跌,螺纹钢价格基本持平。

海外:中东局势升级推高油价,美国通胀压力上行,美联储官员暗示10月按兵不动。美国9月CPI同比上行3.7%,高于彭博一致预期的3.6%及前值的3.4%;环比上行0.6%持平预期高于前值的0.4%。美国9月PPI同比上行6.3%,高于预期的5.3%及前值的5.6%;环比上行1.3%,高于预期及前值的0.5%。美国9月零售销售环比上行0.8%,高于预期的0.3%低于前值的1.1%。美国9月工业产出环比上行0.7%,高于预期的0.4%及前值的0.1%。欧元区9月CPI终值同比上行3.8%持平预期与前值,环比上行0.6%持平预期与前值。

**国内政策判断:**

货币政策:央行延续适度宽松取向,持续投放中期流动性。9月政府融资同比增速止跌回升,但剔除政府融资的社融增速降至5.34%,私人部门融资动能仍待修复。操作层面,10月15日开展7000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购,净投放2000亿元,10月两个期限合计净投放4000亿元;上周公开市场逆回购净回笼260亿元。关注本周金融街论坛政策增量表述及10月MLF操作。

财政政策:超长期特别国债发行收官,地方债发行提速,民生保障政策持续完善。上周一般国债净融资-933亿元,特别国债净融资500亿元、发行进度达90.6%,注资特别国债尚余1500亿元待发;地方新增专项债发行402.58亿元、进度升至82.1%,特殊新增专项债发行323亿元,累计规模达年初预算的139.7%。财政部、教育部修订城乡义务教育补助经费管理办法,明确实施期限至2030年末,并强化预算绩效管理和资金使用监督。

地产政策:上周房地产政策在供需两端持续发力。供给端方面,杭州推进商品住房销售制度改革,对2026年8月28日后发布土地出让公告且实行预售的项目,要求购房资金全部纳入监管,竣工验收且配套设施具备交付条件后解除监管;推行现房销售定金制,定金不超过住房总价的5%并纳入监管。需求端方面,长春支持符合条件的缴存人及配偶一次性提取公积金,用于吉林省内自住住房装修,涵盖适老化、适儿化改造。

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**后续关注**

国内:

1) 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第五次全体会议

2) 9月人民币在Swift全球支付中的占比

海外:

1) 美国至10月16日当周EIA原油库存

2) 美国至10月16日当周EIA天然气库存

3) 美国至10月17日当周初请失业金人数

4) 欧元区10月消费者信心指数初值

5) 日本9月核心CPI年率

6) 欧元区10月制造业PMI初值

7) 美国10月标普全球制造业PMI初值

8) 美国10月标普全球服务业PMI初值

9) 美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值

10) 美国9月耐用品订单月率

11) 美国8月FHFA房价指数月率

12) 美国10月谘商会消费者信心指数

13) 美国至10月23日当周EIA原油库存

**风险提示1)美国通胀重新超预期。**若美国通胀后续再度超预期上行,可能导致美联储加息幅度超预期,引发全球风险资产回调。

**2)美国就业市场超预期放缓。**美国就业市场超预期放缓或加剧市场对美国经济“硬着陆”的担忧,引发美元指数与美债收益率下行及全球风险资产的避险回调。

**3)地缘关系持续紧张。**地缘冲突应归于“影响重大但难于预判”一类,地缘局势与外交斡旋瞬息万变,只能做持续跟踪和预案,而不能跟随情绪做投资决策。

**文章来源**

研报《法债风波还是欧债危机2.0?》2026年10月21日

张继强 S0570518110002 研究员

陶 冶 S0570522040001 研究员

王建刚 S0570526070008 研究员

褚浩男 S0570126070022 联系人

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Meta 业绩与昨夜美股

cf346d5d2efc45248cbe6259ef8dea9f · 发布时间 2026-10-21T23:51:38+00:00 · 入库 2026-10-21T23:54:38.681454+00:00 · approved

原文
先说 Meta 业绩,核心业务的现金流依然充足,AI驱动广告展示量增10%、平均广告价格增14%;部分“内容理解”改用自家模型后,单位处理成本降超80%。MUSE自然是电话会重点,需求真实但成本高、变现刚起步:美加合计1000万激活用户、日活250万,购物为最大场景,ASP 200美元;目前主要靠免费层(较小模型),前沿模型放在付费层。盈利依赖未来一年“计算成本效率提升10倍”的预测,变现比Meta传统剧本更早启动,显著规模化要等到2027年后,定位是未来10亿级别的产品。

资本开支与现金流压力:2026年capex指引上调至1350–1450亿美元(低端上调50亿美元),2027年具体capex与费用指引要等到Q4电话会。

买方反馈,财报整体稳健、基本符合预期,多数人认为利空已提前计入,北美广告很强,Reels人均时长创历史新高。管理层虽然没给2027年收入指引,但称AI投入会支撑2027年强劲增长。capex是否见顶分歧大:一方认为已见顶,另一方说明年会超2000亿;共识是2026年数字不重要,关键看2027年capex和CFO说法。

融资方面,关注是否股权融资、Class C“数百亿美元”融资是否合理;有人推测1月发Class C并可能拆股,先给2027年指引再逐步上调capex,也有人认为当前股权融资比债务融资合适。

大盘方面,QQQ收涨1.1%,开盘涨65bp后日内持续走高,收盘前美国财政部批准部分被扣船只卸货,指数进一步拉升。半导体、网络安全强势,旅游股、中概互联网、电信走弱。

半导体+2.2%,催化当然来自SPCX业绩、SMCI业绩,以及Altimeter的Gerstner在CNBC看多Anthropic,Gerstner给出Anthropic IPO估值区间1.5–2万亿美元,测算基准为2027年GAAP营收1400–1500亿美元,给予10–12倍倍数,较机构模型高出6–15%;买方对Anthropic 2027营收预期区间极宽,为1150–2000亿美元,S-1文件预计最早周五披露。

SpaceX大涨8%,马斯克抛出的13GW算力目标,多数买方并不采信,有人投票50%认为明年新增算力≤7GW,仅6%认为>10GW。卖方集体上调预测:JPM上调2027–2028预测,2027年末算力10GW、2027营收2540亿美元;MS将2027财年收入上调至1780亿美元,假设算力8.3GW。市场争论SPCX大量新增算力对新兴云厂商是利好还是冲击,看多的认为对应每GW收入400–800亿美元,反驳方则认为供给由需求决定

NVDA涨2.5%,跑赢SOX指数,Jensen在柏林GTC称AI基础设施需求具备结构性韧性,欧洲是增量增长市场。NVDA与AMKR计划先进封装产能扩张超300%,预计2027年测试产能达到2026年两倍,带动TER涨2.6%、AEHR涨3%。加密矿企跑赢大盘,GLXY涨7.4%、WULF涨6.2%、IREN涨4.6%;新兴云NBIS盘中曾跌4.5%,收盘几乎持平。存储硬盘涨跌互现,STX涨3.2%、WDC涨3.9%、MU涨2%。

AMD涨3.4%,Evercore调研显示Agent智能代理推动服务器CPU/GPU配比从1:2~1:4向1:1演进,CPU ASP 2026H1环比涨10–15%,H2预计涨15–20%,专家预计直到2027Q1 CoWoS瓶颈缓解前涨价可持续20–25%。ARM涨2.5%,拿下超大规模云厂商新增CPU部署约一半份额。AMBA盘中最高涨9.7%,收盘涨4.4%,传闻英伟达考虑收购。

网络安全暴涨,导火索是AI发现PHP高危漏洞,允许黑客无需登录远程执行代码,波及全球约70%网站,OpenAI称是近年影响力最大漏洞之一,FBI要求无法打补丁机构直接下线系统。ZS涨7.8%、OKTA涨7.5%、CRWD涨5.3%、NET涨5%、S涨3.5%、PANW涨2%、FTNT涨1.8%。Evercore梳理受益链条:Web防火墙为AKAM、FSLY、NET,风险暴露管理为TENB、QLYS、RPD,终端安全为PANW、S

仓位与杠杆上,高盛Prime数据显示,空头杠杆接近5年新高(99百分位),月迄今卖空交易量与做多交易量比约5:1。过去两周TMT全球出现有记录以来最大规模净卖出。全球AI股票多空比处在过去一年第6百分位。Mag7大型科技股净敞口创历史新高。

20年期美债拍卖结果偏弱但市场接受度高,10年期美债收益率几乎持平5.12%。10月28日加息概率15%(前一日13%),市场仍计价12月加息。原油早盘因霍尔木兹水雷消息冲高1.5%后回吐全部涨幅,美国国务院澄清撤离海湾使馆人员报道不实。BTC报84500美元,涨3%。

(完)

更多内容第一时间发在星球群,群友多数来自机构,一二级都有。星球专注于产业信息分享、重要事件解读

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仅为研报翻译,不作为投资建议

Meta这场业绩会,开始回答Agent怎么赚钱

capduck-db1289d6ea52cbf98f12adad7c70b7db9d91c310 · 发布时间 原始发布时间未提供 · 入库 2026-10-22T00:52:30.232213+00:00 · pending

原文
# Meta这场业绩会,开始回答Agent怎么赚钱

原创 北向牧风 北向牧风 北向牧风

_2026年10月22日 00:19_ _上海_

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Meta 昨晚(美东 10/21)盘后出了 Q3 财报,股价盘后一度涨了 4% 左右,电话会开着开着又吐回去一大半,最后挂在 +2.4%。

今天电话会增量信息有限,大多围绕商业模式,可能除了商业模式外,对硬件来说值得看的是拆股,Meta 给老股东每股送一股新的 C 类股,没有投票权,Polymarket、雅虎财经直接写成了 1 拆 2...

Jesse Cohen 在路透里说了一句,挺能代表当晚的情绪:市场从惩罚 Meta 花钱,变成奖励它有产品故事了。

财报数据我就不列了,直接看官方这页(来源:Meta Q3 2026 业绩 PPT):

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图:Q3 营收 646 亿美元,同比 +26%,其中美国和加拿大 289 亿(来源:Meta Q3 2026 业绩 PPT 第 3 页)

**1/简单点评:**

先说这个 C 股是什么

每持有一股 A 股或 B 股,送一股 C 股,没有投票权,明年 1 月 19 日生效,1 月下旬开始交易。经济上确实等于 1 拆 2,所以大家都按拆股读。但单纯拆股用不着专门新建一类股票,新闻稿和电话会把用途写得很清楚:融资、员工薪酬、收购。

**这类股票是拿来卖的。**

电话会上高盛的 Eric Sheridan 直接问了资本结构,Susan Li 的回答是没有具体融资计划要宣布,只是觉得先把资本结构的框架搭好比较审慎。

14C 后半部分是特别委员会跟扎克伯格谈判的全过程,一次次开会都记着,语气跟电话会完全不一样。5 月 29 日,管理层跟委员会说,预计追加融资的压力会大幅上升,建议现在就建一类无投票权股,留给以后的股权融资用。6 月 11 日那次会上,财务顾问 Moelis 转述了上面那句:5 月董事会上的三套长期预测,每一套都要在几年里筹几千亿美元。到 8 月初,管理层跟委员会讲的已经是公司"近期迫切需要股权融资"。

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图:Meta 14C 里 6 月 11 日特别委员会的会议记录(来源:SEC,Meta PRE 14C)

为什么不发债?文件里也写了。这个量级的债会伤到信用评级。7 月 Meta 得州数据中心合资项目发的那笔债,认购就比别的发行弱,Moelis 的说法是超大厂的信用条件在收紧。还有一句说得很直白:要赶在竞争对手把各条融资渠道挤满之前把钱拿到,点名的是谷歌、SpaceX、Anthropic、OpenAI。

几千亿是什么量级?我简单算了一下。按最少 2000 亿、摊三四年,一年要从外面补 500-700 亿美元。Meta 今年前三季度经营现金流 969 亿,全年大概 1300 亿上下(Q4 按跟 Q3 差不多估),也就是说,**管理层自己的预测里,每年得从外面补的钱,相当于一年经营现金流的四成到一半。**这还是 5 月的预测,那时候 Muse 还没上线。

这一季的报表也可以看出现金流的一些问题。自由现金流 -21 亿,去年同期是 +106 亿;账上现金 824 亿、债务 837 亿,基本打平;今年到现在一股没回购,去年前三季度回购了 260 多亿。

全年 capex 指引 1350-1450 亿,前三季度花了 858 亿,Q4 一个季度就要花 490-590 亿,中值比 Q3 还多五成。

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图:自由现金流从去年 Q3 的 106 亿一路降到 Q2 的 8 亿,Q3 转负到 -21 亿——这一季买设备花了 339 亿,比经营现金流 328 亿还多(来源:Meta Q3 2026 业绩 PPT 第 15 页)

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所以拆股在现在来看是利好硬件整体的,Muse 跑得越快,要的算力越多,钱就越得从外面找。但是电话会给的27年以及之后的指出是模糊的,只说根据业务去调整投入。

财报前 JPM 有一段话说:大多数投资者仍然认为 Q3 之后大概率会股权融资,明年 Meta 肯定要烧自由现金流,唯一的问题是到时候债便宜还是股便宜。JPM 买方调查里,2027 年 opex 加 capex 的共识是 4350-4750 亿美元。

  

所以要发股买方心里早有数,这份 14C 新给的是量级和时间。

  

拆股说到这,下边主要是电话会的一些关键信息

**1/ Muse最有价值的信息,是用户已经在拿它做什么**

管理层披露,上线约六周,美国和加拿大超过1000万人设置了Muse个人Agent;这些用户中,约25%会在任意一天使用它。

CFO另一个口径是,超过25%的周活用户使用购物功能。扎克伯格提到平均购买金额超过200美元,后续问答确认包含旅行。

这说明产品已经触及有交易价值的场景。

下载量证明的是Meta的分发能力,Muse能不能成为生意,要看Agent替用户完成了多少任务

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图:Convequity在财报当天盘前提的问题

管理层认为Muse已经找到产品市场契合。

**2/ 这次商业模式讲得具体了。**

多数用户免费使用;促成交易后,计划由商家支付费用。想用更强模型、更多tokens的个人用户付订阅费;需要额外功能的企业,也可以付费。

Meta过去最擅长的是理解消费者,把合适的广告送到他面前。Muse想再往后走一步:替消费者找商品、比较选择、完成任务,然后从促成的交易中获取收入。

这个延伸有吸引力,因为收入可以与交易价值挂钩。但商家愿意付多少、愿不愿开放接口,都会影响它能走多远。

高盛在Q&A里就追问:有些平台和供应商不希望Agent访问,怎么办?

CFO的回答是,长期会更多依赖经过授权的API、合作伙伴关系,以及消费者Agent和商家Agent直接交互。近期不少体验仍然是AI辅助,完全自主的交易需要时间。

所以,模型能操作网页只是其中一环。商家是否接入、用户是否授权,也决定任务能否完成。

**3/ 随后巴克莱追问单用户成本,CFO没有给具体数字。**

管理层给出的是未来一年算力成本效率改善超过十倍的目标,路径包括利用闲时算力、更小的模型和推理优化。同时也明确,扩大用户规模会让总服务成本继续上升。

**单位成本下降和总支出增加,可以同时发生。**

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图:Gene Munster从电话会里读出的判断...

还有一个更难的变量。

扎克伯格在最后补充,一年后,今天这个智能水平有望通过更小的模型,以更低成本交付;但到时候,用户可能已经想要更强的模型了。

因此,**十倍效率改善不能理解成十倍利润改善。**还要看用户做多少任务、每个任务消耗多少算力,以及Meta能从中收多少钱...(但是总量是持续增加)

模型变便宜,可能扩大使用;更强的模型,又可能带来更复杂、更耗算力的任务。这两股力量会一起影响成本。

**4/ 也就能理解,为什么Meta要比过去更早变现。**

Evercore问:过去你们做新产品,通常先拉用户、做留存,再考虑变现。Muse的服务成本明显更高,这次是不是得更早赚钱?

扎克伯格的回答很直接:商业化会比过去更早推进。一方面,成本和机会的规模都很大;另一方面,用户已经在用Muse购物,收费模式需要跟着建立起来。

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图:扎克伯格回答Evercore时说,Muse的变现会比惯常节奏更早

Agent替用户持续查找、比较、执行任务,每多完成一次工作,都可能增加推理消耗。使用越深入,产品价值和服务成本会一起上升。

Meta仍然希望大多数人免费使用,尽快建立消费者与商家共同参与的Muse网络。但这次,用户增长、商业化、降本需要同步推进。

这里也有Meta的优势:现有广告业务提供收入,消费端有分发渠道,商家端有长期关系。它可以承受新业务的培育期,也有机会把消费需求和商家服务接起来。

只是,这些优势还需要转化成实际付费和可持续的毛利。

电话会里还有一个值得留意的安排:Meta准备通过企业API、Muse Code等服务,承接更多付费推理需求。按照管理层的思路,模型训练已经产生了较大的固定成本,接下来希望把模型用于更多能产生收入的场景。

这也意味着,未来要观察的已经不只是Muse一个应用。企业业务能否带来收入、广告系统能否继续改善,都影响这笔AI投入的整体回报。

**5/ 对算力的含义,先落在需求用途变多。**

同一套模型和基础设施,可以服务广告推荐、Muse、企业API和代码工具。个人Agent如果持续运行,也可能带来更多推理需求。

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图:扎克伯格说算力是Muse目前最大的限制之一,所以还没在全球上线

对硬件需求,这是正面线索;具体订单弹性,还取决于自研芯片与外采的比例、模型效率,以及部署节奏。管理层这次没有给出2027年capex的量化指引。

今天先聊到这,早晨SemiAnalysis发的文章显示HV硬件落后 A100 五年、软件已在前沿,结合DS开源推理框架,这个大家其实还没有深刻理解...

要知道这个开源推理框架拿出任何一个都可以搞个新公司...

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路透早报:10月22日

f6d32451507b4ce78b41ecd10d5362d8 · 发布时间 2026-10-22T00:05:52+00:00 · 入库 2026-10-22T01:42:15.007661+00:00 · approved

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**要闻提示**

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- **马克龙誓言防止骚乱重演,斥责外国领导人相关言论“愚蠢”**
- **克宫:普京原则上同意下月重启俄乌美三方会谈**
- 李强同普京会晤:中方愿同俄方更好发挥经济互补优势,加强务实合作

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孟加拉杜尔迦节活动

图 路透/Mohammad Ponir Hossain

**重大数据或新闻**

---

--马克龙誓言防止骚乱重演,斥责外国领导人相关言论“愚蠢”

法国总统马克龙周三誓言,将防止上周末发生的暴力事件在今后几天计划举行的抗议活动中重演,他将于周四与情报官员和高级部长们会面商讨危机,并警告称,任何试图在周六市中心制造骚乱的人都将被阻止。马克龙并斥责包括美国总统特朗普在内的部分外国领导人有关骚乱的言论“愚蠢”且“不可接受”。此前,特朗普在未提供证据的情况下将骚乱归咎于移民和激进伊斯兰主义。

--克宫:普京原则上同意下月重启俄乌美三方会谈

俄罗斯总统外交政策助理乌沙科夫表示,俄罗斯总统普京向美国总统特使威特科夫表示,原则上莫斯科愿于下月恢复与乌克兰和美国就结束乌克兰冲突举行会谈。普京与威特科夫还讨论了柴油供应协议的落实情况与伊朗危机。

*俄罗斯称首批柴油将于周四启程前往美国,该油轮将运送4万吨柴油。

--乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示,乌克兰支持美国提出的提议,即尽快举行乌克兰、俄罗斯和美国谈判代表参加的三方会谈,最迟不晚于11月初。

*乌官员表示,周三晚间,俄军向乌克兰首都基辅发射了弹道导弹,造成民宅和一座加油站受损,并导致人员受伤。路透目击者报称,市内发生了爆炸。

--据新华社报道,中国国务院总理李强在圣彼得堡会见俄罗斯总统普京,指出中方愿同俄方更好发挥经济互补优势,维护当前双方合作的良好发展态势,加强能源资源、经贸投资、交通运输等务实合作,取得更多积极成果,促进两国共同繁荣。

*塔斯社报道称,普京表示,俄中关系正在成功且充满活力地发展。

--独家:美拟从海湾地区部分使馆撤离人员,应对胡塞武装威胁升级

美国官员表示,美国国务院正准备下令从海湾地区多个美国使馆撤离部分工作人员及其家属。两名美国官员称,此举是由于敌对行动可能再次爆发,尤其是也门胡塞武装可能恢复袭击活动。美国驻利雅得大使馆发布安全警报称,胡塞武装未来可能对沙特发动进一步攻击。

--伊朗外长阿拉格齐在英国金融时报发表的一篇文章中写道,伊朗愿通过外交途径解决问题,但也将捍卫自身安全。

--独家:美国计划出借约三分之一取暖油储备,以抑制油价

美国能源部表示,特朗普政府提议借出美国100万桶取暖油应急储备中的近三分之一,以抑制油价上涨。由于伊朗冲突和乌克兰战争导致柴油短缺,油价已经飙升。能源部一位消息人士称,政府将评估是否有必要进一步释放储备。

*另外,市场观察人士和分析师表示,特朗普与俄罗斯达成的柴油供应协议不太可能大幅降低柴油价格。他们指出,承诺的供应量太小,不足以缓解全球供应紧张的局面。

--AI发现PHP重大漏洞引发全球网站停摆潮,欧洲多国政府网站紧急下线

被广泛使用的编程语言PHP曝出严重漏洞后,欧洲及其他地区多个政府网站紧急下线,全球网站运营商则争相采取防护措施,以避免系统遭受攻击。PHP开发团队紧急发布了PHP编程语言多个严重漏洞的修复补丁,敦促所有用户“立即更新”。这些漏洞已在软件中潜伏多年,直到借助人工智能(AI)技术才被发现。

--特斯拉第三季自由现金流意外转正,AI和机器人支出远低于预期

特斯拉公布第三季度业绩,自由现金流意外转为正值,原因是其在AI和机器人项目上的资本支出远低于分析师预期。与此同时,这家电动车制造商正在评估与首席执行官马斯克旗下火箭公司SpaceX合并的可能性。

--苹果表示,其首款折叠屏手机iPhone Duo将于周五正式发售,届时将向到店顾客提供数量有限的现货。此前该产品首批网上预售数分钟内即告售罄,部分订单的交货时间已延至1月。

--Meta营收和展望超预期,推新股融资支持AI扩张

Meta公布,第三季营收为646亿美元,高于分析师平均预期的633.7亿美元,并预计第四季度营收将在730亿至760亿美元之间,亦高于市场预期的737.3亿美元。Meta还宣布将发行新的无表决权股份,以支持其大规模AI扩张计划;与此同时,该公司表示其面向消费者的AI助手应用Muse用户增长强劲。

--欧洲央行经济学家表示,欧元区经济今年应对能源冲击的表现好于预期,对化石燃料依赖度下降、财政支持力度增强以及AI投资热潮,共同帮助维持了经济增长。

--德国总理默茨表示,俄罗斯的虚假信息和混合攻击对德国的安全构成了最大威胁,莫斯科正在对冷战结束后建立的政治秩序发起根本性攻击。

--俄罗斯表示,将日本Terra Drone公司向乌克兰出售无人机视为敌对行为,并警告将予以严厉回击。

--朝鲜领导人金正恩的胞妹金与正在朝中社发表的声明中表示,朝鲜将在10月底前沿其整个边境线启动针对韩国的宣传扩音器。

--中国发布关于推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合的意见,提出推动集成电路、工业母机、高端仪器、先进材料、生物制造等领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破;全面实施“人工智能+”行动,推动人工智能赋能千行百业。

--官方数据显示,沙特阿拉伯8月份的原油出口量从7月份的412.5万桶/日升至445.1万桶/日。

--新西兰官方数据显示,第三季消费者物价指数(CPI)同比增幅放缓至3.7%,且低于分析师预期,不过仍高于央行目标区间上限。

--独家:路透看到的内部备忘录显示,eBay将裁员约9%,精简业务并加码增长领域。eBay发言人向路透证实了此次裁员。

--知情人士称,中国矿产资源集团(CMRG)已与力拓集团达成新的铁矿石供应协议;CMRG已口头通知部分钢厂该协议,并将从周四开始收集各钢厂计划向力拓采购的铁矿石数量信息。

--据俄罗斯国家通讯社RIA援引副总理诺瓦克的话报导,俄罗斯和中国预计,俄罗斯天然气工业(俄气/Gazprom)与中国石油天然气集团(CNPC)将在今年年底前,就拟议中的“贝加尔力量”天然气管道项目达成商业协议。

--奇瑞汽车高管向路透表示,该公司愿意与美国汽车制造商建立合作伙伴关系,并正为明年年初在加拿大推出品牌做准备。作为中国最大的汽车出口商,奇瑞在欧洲及其他地区实现快速增长后,正寻求拓展北美市场。

**市场摘要**

---

**股市**

‍

美国股市周三收高,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数领涨;SpaceX和Supermicro(超微)财报提振了投资者对AI相关股票的信心,不过通信服务类股走弱限制了大盘升幅。道琼斯工业指数上涨360.21点或0.69%,报52856.09点;标普500指数上涨44.60点或0.58%,报7757.17点;纳斯达克指数上涨278.04点或1.05%,报26702.86点。

欧洲股市上涨,几乎收复了法国周末骚乱以来的全部跌幅。强劲的企业业绩提振市场人气,促使投资者暂时淡化对经济和政治不确定性的担忧。泛欧STOXX 600指数上涨0.92%,收于644.49点。英国富时100指数收高0.19%,法国CAC 40指数收高1%,德股DAX指数收升1.35%。

**汇市**

‍

美元指数基本持平,交易员权衡油价上涨再度引发的通胀风险,并等待下周召开的美联储会议;与此同时,受澳洲央行鹰派言论提振,澳元走强。欧元收跌0.04%,报1.1232美元。澳元兑美元上涨0.36%,报0.7027美元。英镑上涨0.12%至1.3394美元。美元兑日圆微跌0.02%,报158.13日圆。

**债市**

美国公债收益率小幅下跌,投资者评估借贷成本上升对AI类股的影响。不过在20年期公债标售结束后,收益率脱离盘中低点。指标10年期公债收益率下跌0.6个基点至5.111%。30年期公债收益率下跌1.3个基点,报5.412%。

欧元区公债收益率普遍上涨,法国大规模抗议活动加剧了市场对其财政状况脆弱及政治不确定性的担忧。法国指标10年期公债收益率自2002年7月以来首次触及5%,当日上涨8个基点,本周累计上涨逾20个基点。法德10年期公债利差目前为150个基点,在欧元区主要主权债券市场中居于最高水平。德国10年期公债收益率上涨3.4个基点至3.4274%。

**油市**

油价基本收平,投资者权衡俄乌谈判可能取得的进展、美国原油库存下降以及美伊对话停滞等因素。布兰特原油期货收盘上涨3美分,涨幅0.03%,报每桶108.82美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI) 收盘下跌67美分,跌幅0.7%,报每桶97.15美元。

**金属市场**

金价收高,从盘中触及的近一周低点反弹,美国公债收益率下跌为金价提供支撑,同时投资者正等待下周美联储会议的召开。现货金收报每盎司4140.38美元,上涨0.39%。12月交割的美国期金收盘上涨0.2%,报每盎司4150美元。

铜价下跌,受库存增加及供应担忧缓解影响。1615 GMT,伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜下跌0.4%,报每吨14364美元。

‍

[原资料图片未包含在已有归档中]

180K聊天

wx:inbox:88788195eeda13c2f34bcc04 · 2026-10-21T12:46:47+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_fcbw046g0l6w12:
#科技日报 

【编号 18003858】

今日科技早盘

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wx:inbox:06f8bd4020c7aec88085dcbc · 2026-10-21T18:14:27+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJBSNEFdm8c&feature=youtu.be

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wx:inbox:07b611bc2c0f631e87387630 · 2026-10-21T21:55:37+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
meta txn lrcx ibm

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wx:inbox:277f43b22e0c7f95a304faad · 2026-10-21T22:07:06+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
muse

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wx:inbox:3d3c1bd8f5b0329812d81c23 · 2026-10-21T22:08:52+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
Meta has no guidance on 2027 capex, mentions it will be released in Q4.

180K聊天

wx:inbox:cd05bfabc93d7f89c44b7041 · 2026-10-21T22:22:31+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
meta 

1/ 基础业绩好

2/ 2027 capex 没有给数字,没有清晰指引

3/ 之前市场预期的股权融资/ 融资节奏没有落地,没有清晰指引

4/ 新业务比如 muse ,api 业务没有清晰数字

5/ cfo 回答打太极

没有太多明显增量,晚点有其他卖方解读再放上来。

180K聊天

wx:inbox:b971748b9958e993c57d239c · 2026-10-21T22:35:48+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
muse 购物

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wx:inbox:83ba1d59b8e1572e75f36b80 · 2026-10-21T23:17:59+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_in1mem4jwpg512:
Claude duet

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wx:inbox:67b318d1ea407f8912546fde · 2026-10-21T23:22:32+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_fcbw046g0l6w12:
#科技日报 

【编号 18003859】

隔夜科技日报

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wx:inbox:ee948ac3ed2880d81b5c1d0e · 2026-10-21T23:26:35+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_fcbw046g0l6w12:
#北美交易台 

【编号 18003860】

隔夜北美小结

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wx:inbox:be9ebdb9d1e69235320a1208 · 2026-10-21T23:36:37+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

华为与 DeepSeek 的共生关系 --- The Huawei-DeepSeek Symbiosis.pdf

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wx:inbox:b05e06d0c6bd9cfd6a874b48 · 2026-10-21T23:36:38+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

The Huawei-DeepSeek Symbiosis.pdf

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wx:inbox:cb3563f2c52cfb07b69cea82 · 2026-10-22T00:17:50+00:00 · 群内观点/线索

wxid_fcbw046g0l6w12:
#中港交易台 

【编号 18003861】

本土开盘前小结

180K隔夜科技日报

已保存原件

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Good afternoon. QQQs +1.1% opened +65bps and grinded
higher most of the day, moving higher near the close when
Treasury authorized the offloading of cargo involving some
blocked vessels.
下午好。纳指 100 ETF (QQQs) 收涨1.1%,开盘上涨65个基
点,全天大部分时间震荡走高,并在收盘前因财政部授权卸载涉
及部分受阻船只的货物而进一步拉升。
Semis +2.2% outperformed as SPCX's guide, SMCI's
preannouncement, and some bullish Anthropic comments by
Gerstner on CNBC had semi vibes feeling better than they
have been over the past couple weeks. Software +1.8% was
led by cyber on an Al-found PHP flaw (ZS +8%;OKTA
+7.5%;CRWD +5.3%;S +3.5%). Internet -1% as travel
lagged (EXPE -5%;BKNG-3.4%) ahead of META's print
(Zuck talking up Muse on the call) as the Consumer Agentic
Winners vs Losers basket was up 5%. China internet lower
again (BABA-4%; PDD -3.6%; JD-3.6%)as the HS Tech
Closed below 4,000 for the first time since Oct 2024. Telcos
were also weaker after AT&T missed on phone adds (T
-6.4%;TMUS -2.5%;VZ-2%), NFLX-5.3% on a weaker
set of numbers and GOOGL -1.6% on mixed Cleveland's
checks.
半导体板块上涨2.2%,表现优于大盘,主要受 SPCX业绩指
引、SMCI预盈公告以及 Gerstner 在 CNBC上针对
Anthropic发表的看多言论影啊,使半导体板块的情绪较过去几
周有所好转。软件板块上涨1.8%,其中网络安全股因 AI发现
PHP 漏洞领涨(ZS +8%;OKTA +7.5%;CRWD +5.3%;S
+3.5%)。互联网板块下跌1%,旅游股在 META 财报发布前表
现滯后(EXPE-5%;BKNG-3.4%),尽管扎克伯格在电话会
议上大谈 Muse,1
且“消费者代理型 AI赢家 vs 输家”组合上涨了
5%。中国互联网股再次走低(BABA -4%;PDD -3.6%;JD
-3.6%),恒生科技指数自2024年10月以来首次收于 4,000
点下方。电信板块同样走弱,此前 AT&T的新增手机用户数未达
预期(T-6.4%;TMUS-2.5%;VZ-2%),NFLX因业绩数
据疲软下跌5.3%,GOOGL则因克利夫兰研究中心(Cleveland
Research)的调研结果喜忧参半而下跌 1.6%。
On positioning, GS had some good color from their Prime
team toaay saying short leverage near 5-year highs (99th
percentile) with short sales outpacing long buys ~5 to 1 MTD,
also saying the last two weeks were the largest net selling of
Global Info Tech on record and Global Al stocks' long/short
ratio in the 6th percentile vs. the past year with Mag 7 net
exposure at a new record high.
仓位方面,高盛(GS)的主经纪商(Prime)团队今天提供了一
些不错的分析,称空头杠杆接近5年高点(处于99百分位),
本月至今空头抛售与多头买入之比为~5:1;此外还提到,过去
两周全球信息技术板块出现了有记录以来最大的净抛售,全球 AI
概念股多空比处于过去一年的 6% 分位,而“美股七巨头”
(Mag 7) 的净敞口则创下历史新高。
We sent out first takes on META, TXN, IBM, and LRCX here.
我们在此发布了对 META、TXN、IBM 和 LRCX 的初步解读。
In macro land, rates took a soft 20-year auction in stride and
the 10Y was little changed at ~5.12%. Odds of a 10/28 hike
are ~15%(~13% yesterday), with December still priced for a
hike. Crude gave back an early ~1.5% pop on Hormuz mine
headlines, and late in the day the State Dept said reports it
would order evacuations of some Gulf embassy staff were
inaccurate, with its directive limited to non-emergency staff in
Saudi Arabia. BTC ~$84.5K, +3% to its highest since 10/14.
宏观层面,利率市场从容应对了疲软20年期国债拍卖,10年
期国债收益率基本持平于~5.12%。10 月 28 日加息概率为
~15%(昨日约为13%),市场仍定价12月会加息。原油价格
回吐了早前因霍尔木兹海峡水雷消息而出现的~1.5% 涨幅;随
后美国国务院表示,有关其将下令撤离部分海湾地区使馆工作人
员的报道不准确,其指令仅限于驻沙特阿拉伯的非紧急工作人员。
比特币报~8.45万美元,上涨3%,创下10月14日以来的最
高水平。
Let's get to the good stuff...
让我们进入正题
1 Day Movers/Shakers
Winners
SMCI
ZS
SPCX
OKTA
GLXY
BE
MIDB
DDOG
CRDO
WULF
APPS
CIEN
FSLY
NET
DELL
9.5%
7.8%
7.8%
7.5%
7.4%
7.1%
6.7%
6.5%
6.3%
6.2%
6.2%
5.7%
5.6%
5.3%
5.3%
XPEV
NFLX
EXPE
TCEHY
BABA
PTON
MBLY
DASH
JD
PDD
BKNG
CPNG
SE
Z
LYFT
Losers
-5.5%
-5.3%
-5.0%
-4.1%
-3.9%
-3.9%
-3.8%
-3.8%
-3.6%
-3.6%
-3.4%
-3.1%
-3.1%
-2.9%
-2.7%
TMT Subsectors
Security SW
Quantum
Expensive Software
Semi Equip
Hardware
Network Equip
Semis
Apple Suppliers
Software
Biz Services
Payments
Video Games
Media
Internet
E-commerce
Telecom
1D %
3.8%
3.0%
2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.5%
-0.1%
-0.6%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-1.8%
-3.5%
AI Sub-Sectors
Global Memory
AI Power
AI Software
Optical
CPUs
Broad AlIndex
Memory Losers
AI Tech Beneficiaries
AMZN Trainium Infra
Google Al Infra
Electric Grid Enablers
Neoclouds/Miners
Memory Exposed
Nuclear
Robotics
AI Adopters
1D%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.4%
1.1%
1.1%
Factors
Consumer Agentic W/L
Bitcoin Related
TMT Momentum Pair
Retail Favorite
Profitable Secular Growth
Non Profitable Tech
Strong Balance Sheet
China Sales Exposed
HF VIP Long
Weak Balance Sheet
Secular Growth
Megacap
TMT Quality
High Short Interest
GARP Software
GARP
1D%
5.4%
5.2%
2.1%
1.9%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
AI/SEMIS人工智能/半导体
• Anthropic: Altimeter's Brad Gerstner (an Anthropic
investor) on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning here.
Asked whether the IPO goes at $2T or $1.5T, he put last
week's investor-day sentiment at "like a ten out of ten'
then: "The numbers that we have in the Altimeter forecast
for this for next year, let's call it 140 or $150 billion in
GAAP revenue right for next year... If you apply a 10 times
multiple to that, Andrew, you get to 1.5 trillion. If you
apply 12 times multiple, you get closer to 2 trillion. So l
think that's the range that we're talking about! The math
works off the $150B end (12x is ~$1.8T). This is roughly in
line with his Oct 15th framing of $100B 2026 exit run rate
doubling would be "ike $200B ARR exit next year" Some
context on what that implies and what we're hearing
buyside is modeling:
Anthropic: Altimeter 的 Brad Gerstner(Anthropic 的投
资者)今天早上参加了 CNBC Squawk Box节目(链接
见此)。在被问及 IPO 估值是2万亿美元还是1.5万亿美
元时,他表示上周投资者日的情绪“大约是10分(满分10
分)”,随后说道:“在 Altimeter 对明年的预测中,我们暂
且称明年的 GAAP 营收为1400亿或1500亿美元…..
Andrew,如果你对其应用10倍的乘数,估值就是1.5万亿。
如果应用12倍的乘数,估值就接近2万亿。所以我认为这
就是我们讨论的范围。”这一计算是基于1500亿美元高
端数据(12倍即~1.8万亿美元)。这与他在10月15日
提出的框架大致相符,即 2026年1000 亿美元的退出运行
率翻倍将达到“明年约2000亿美元的 ARR 退出水平”。以
下是关于这意味着什么以及我们听到买方建模情况的一些
背景:
• The $140/$150 # is 2027 GAAP revenue, not ARR,
and 2.6-2.8x~$54B of 2026 revenue. To put these
numbers into context: From an assumed~$90B of
end-2026 ARR (What we model right now), getting
there takes ~$7.8-9.4B of new ARR a month (equal
monthly adds), for ~$180-198B of ARR by Dec-27.
That's back to 1H26's ~$8B of new ARR a month, vS.
~$2-3B a month in Aug/Sep (~$5.4B ex one-offs).
Right now, we model $132B of 2027 revenue ($167B
of Dec-27 ARR), so he's~6-15% above us.
Something closer to a $100B exit ARR would make
the math a lot easier.
140/150美元的数字是 2027年 GAAP 营收,而非
ARR(年度经常性收入),是~2026年540亿美元营
收的2.6-2.8倍。为了便于理解这些数字:从假设的
2026 年底约 900 亿美元 ARR(我们目前的模型预
测)来看,要实现这一目标,每月需要新增~78-94
亿美元的 ARR(等额月度增长),到2027年12月
ARR 将达到~1800-1980亿美元。这相当于回到了
2026年上半年每月~80亿美元的新增 ARR 水平,而
8/9 月每月仅为~20-30 亿美元(剔除一次性项目后约
为54亿美元)。目前,我们预测 2027年营收为
1320亿美元(2027年12月 ARR为1670亿美元),
因此他的预测比我们高出~6-15%。如果 2026年底
退出 ARR 接近1000亿美元,计算起来会容易得多。
Still asking around where buyside settling in for 2027
numbers, getting wide ranges anywhere from $115B
to $200B (high end of Anthropic's Reuters reported
plan from August - hopefully they do a better job at
setting expectations once public). So let's call it
~$140B. Some speculated in Slack Gerstner doing
his best to lower expects given sentiment although
some said he could just as easily be pumping.
Obviously no one has their model completely set
given we haven't even received the S-1, which might
come as soon as Friday.
1 亿左向夂亡圢听习亡对9007 年粉坦的豬期 但利的结
LJHリ/L
围很大,从1150亿美元到 2000亿美元不等(后者是
路透社8月报道的 Anthropic 计划的高端——希望他们
上市后在管理预期方面能做得更好)。所以我们暂且称
之为~1400亿美元。Slack 上有人推测,考虑到目前
的情绪,Gerstner 正在尽力降低预期,尽管也有人说
他同样可能是在拉抬股价。显然,由于我们甚至还没收
到 S-1文件(最早可能在周五发布),目前还没有人
模型是完全确定的。
• SPCX +8% with a much better set of numbers for
investors to chew on, even though l aian't hear many
believe the 13GW # Elon threw out.
SPCX +8%,尽管我没听到多少人相信马斯克抛出
13GW 这一数字,但其公布的一系列数据确实好得多,足
以让投资者细细品味。
TM
T8
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Sell-side was largely positive in their recaps. Piper said it
and peers had been "grossly mis-modeling" SPCX. JPM
more than doubled its 2027-28 numbers, modeling
10GW of compute exiting 2027 and $254B of 2027
revenue (~$400B of exit ARR vs. Musk's $500B-$1T),
and MS took FY27 revenue to $178B from $113B while
modeling 8.3GW vs. Musk's~13GW.
卖方在总结报告中大多持积极态度。Piper 表示,该公司及
同行此前对 SPCX的建模存在“严重错误”。摩根大通
(JPM) 将其 2027-28年的数据翻了一倍多,预计 2027
年底算力将达到 10GW,2027年营收将达到 2540亿美元
(退出时的年经常性收入 ARR 约为 4000亿美元,而马斯
克的预期为 5000亿至1万亿美元);摩根士丹利(MS)
将2027财年营收预期从 1130 亿美元上调至1780亿美元,
同时建模算力为 8.3GW,而马斯克的预期为~13GW。
• NVDA +2.5% feeling the 13GW love, outperforming the
SOX as Jensen was at GTC Berlin saying sounding bullish
as always, saying Al infrastructure demand remains
structurally strong (agents + physical Al + industry-wide
adoption), Europe is a real incremental growth market
rather than a lagging one, and the economics of the
factories themselves are improving via faster deployment
and longer asset life.. NVDA and AMKR +4.9% plan a
owYo epansion in duvancea-packagng capacity, afle
NVDA expects 2027 test capacity at 2x 2026(TER
+2.6%; AEHR +3%).
NVDA +2.5%,受到13GW 的利好提振,表现优于 SOX
指数。黄仁勋在柏林 GTC 大会上发言,一如既往地表现出
看涨态度,称 AI 基础设施需求在结构上依然强劲(智能体
+物理 AI+全行业采用),欧洲是一个真正增量增长市
场而非滞后市场,且工厂本身经济效益正通过更快的部署
和更长的资产寿命得到改善。NVDA与 AMKR(+4.9%)
计划将先进封装产能扩大300%以上,且 NVDA 预计
2027年的测试产能将达到 2026年2倍(TER +2.6%;
AEHR +3%)。
• Miners outperformed while the neoclouds
underperformed as investors digested what the SPCX
print meant for the space: GLXY +7.4%; WULF +6.2%;
IREN +4.6%; HUT +3.7% vs. CRWV-50bps; NBIS
+7bps (lows of -4.5%/-4.3%).NBIS at GTC berlin saying
it plans >1GW of Vera Rubin capacity next year and CEO
Volozh telling Gavin Baker at GTC Berlin that "now we
raise prices every 12 minutes on the auctions. Not only
raising, by the way. Sometimes they go down,"
矿商股表现优于大盘,而新型云服务商 (neoclouds)表现
不佳,投资者正在消化 SPCX数据对该领域影响:GLXY
+7.4%;WULF +6.2%;IREN +4.6%;HUT +3.7%,相
比之下 CRWV -50bps; NBIS +7bps(盘中低点曾达
-4.5%/-4.3%)。NBIS 任相不GI心不会上衣示,叶划明
年实现超过 1GW 的 Vera Rubin 产能;CEO Volozh 在柏
林 GTC大会上告诉 Gavin Baker:“现在我们在拍卖中每
12 分钟调整一次价格。顺便说一句,不只是涨价,有时也
会下调。”
Arvind Srinivas
@glocalinvestor
X
Wild excerpt from $NVDA Berlin GTC
@GavinSBaker :"You raised prices how many times in the
last 3 months?"
SNBIS CEO VOLOZH: "Ugh, nobody counts. Now we raise
prices every 12 minutes on the auctions. Not only raising,
by the way. Sometimes they go down."
EVERY 12 MINS...
来自 $NVDA 柏林 GTC 大会的惊人片段
@GavinSBaker:“过去3个月里你们涨了多少次价?”
$NBIS CEO VOLOZH:“呃,没人数过。现在我们在拍卖中每
12 分钟调整一次价格。顺便说一句,不只是涨价,有时也会下
调。”
每12分钟一次.
180k
号180K
UV
5:00 PM•Oct 21,2026・1.05万 Views
下午5:00•2026年10月21日・1.05万 次查看
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Good discussion in TMTB Slack here on whether SPCX's
supply helps or hurts the neos. Arun Dhar boiled the neo bull
case down to two things: Musk's revenue math implies $40-
80B per GW (spot down 20% or up 80% from here), and his
debt raise doesn't worsen unsecured financing for everyone
else, though "the more Neos expose themselves to spot
pricing, the harder it is to lend to them." bretzel pushed back
that "Spcx doesnt set the pricing, demand does," noting
GOOGL, one of SPCX's two biggest customers, called its deal
a "temporary bridge": “Who is the buyer at $50/w then?"
TMTB Slack 上关于SPCX供应对新进入者(neos)是有利
还是有弊展开了精彩讨论。Arun Dhar 将看好新进入者理由归
结为两点:马斯克的营收计算意味着每 GW 产生 400-800亿美
元(现货价格较目前下降20%或上涨80%),且他的债务融资
不会恶化其他人的无抵押融资环境,尽管“新进入者越是暴露在
现货定价之下,就越难向其提供贷款”。bretzel反驳称“定价不
是由 Spcx决定的,而是由需求决定”,并指出 SPCX的两大
客户之一 GOOGL 将其交易称为“临时桥梁”:“那么到时谁会以
50 美元/瓦的价格买单呢?“
• Memory/HDDs mixed : STX +3.2%; WDC +3.9%; MU
+2%;SKHY +2.5%;SNDK +94bps. Only thing we
heard here was a similar sentiment to what MK said in
Slack: "f Elon is able to add this much capacity then it
suggests the market isn't as tight as we think." We get
WDC tomorrow, which should be a good tea leaf for how
the rest of the space reacts this earnings season.
存储/硬盘驱动器(HDD)板块涨跌互现:STX +3.2%;
WDC +3.9%; MU +2%;SKHY +2.5%;SNDK +94个
基点。我们在这里听到唯一观点与 MK 在 Slack中表达
的类似:“如果埃隆能够增加这么多产能,说明市场并不像
我们想象的那么紧俏。”明天我们将迎来 WDC 的财报,这
应该是观察该行业其他公司在本财季表现的一个重要风向标。
• AMD +3.4% as Evercore's checks with 20+ Al engineers
found agentic fan-out pushing server CPU:GPU ratios
from one per 2-4 GPUs toward 1:1, with CPU ASPS up 10-
15% q/q in 1H26 and seen up 15-20% in 2H26 (one
expert models 20-25% through 2027 until CoWoS eases
in 1Q27). Evercore also has ARM +2.5% capturing about
half of new hyperscale CPU deployments.
AMD 上涨 3.4%,Evercore 对 20多名 AI工程师的调研发
现,代理式扇出(agentic fan-out)正推动服务器 CPU与
GPU 的配比从每2-4颗 GPU 配一颗 CPU 趋向1:1,预计
2026年上半年 CPU 平均售价(ASP)环比上涨10-15%,
下半年上涨15-20%(一位专家预测到 2027 年涨幅将达
20-25%,直到 2027年第一季度 CoWoS 产能缓解)。
Evercore 还指出 ARM(+2.5%)占据了约一半新型超大
规模云服务商(hyperscale) CPU 部署份额。
• AMBA +4.4% spiked as much as +9.7% on a Betaville
alert that NVDA may be a bidder before fading; Tae Kim in
TMTB Slack: "when was the last time betaville nailed
anything?O for last 100.“
AMBA上涨 4.4%,受 Betaville 警报称 NVDA 可能是竟购
者的影响,盘中一度飙升 9.7%,随后涨幅收窄;TMTB
Slack 的 Tae Kim 评论道:“Betaville 上次预测准是什么时
候?最近 100 次里没中过一次。”
INTERNET 互联网
• NFLX-5.3% (opened -6.6%) on the ads reset with Q4
Needham downgraded to Hold, while MS says the ad
delays are “months not years! Not a lot of pushback on
the weaker numbers today - the thing I heard cited the
most was both bears and bulls questioning how much
downside there is left. Bears also thinking that initial
CY27 guide Will come in lower than LDD street expects
and saying street's~$5.2-5.3B FY27 ad # requires near-
doubling from a lower base, while the current ad tier still
earns less per member than the standard ad-free tier.
Bulls will say subscription demand and pricing remain
resilient despite weaker engagement trends.
NFLX-5.3%(开盘-6.6%),主因广告业务调整,且第四
李度营收指引低于华尔街和买方预期。Needham 将其评级
下调至“持有”,而摩根士丹利(MS)表示广告业务延迟
是“以月计而非以年计”。今天对疲软数据的反驳并不多一
我听到最多的说法是,无论看空者还是看多者都在质疑还有
多少下跌空间。看空者还认为,最初 2027历年指引将低
于华尔街预期低双位数(LDD),并表示华尔街对 2027
财年~$52亿-53亿的广告收入预测要求在较低基数上实
现近乎翻倍,而目前的广告版套餐每会员收益仍低于标准无
广告套餮。看多者则会认为,尽管参与度趋势走弱,但订阅
需求和定价能力依然保持韧性。
• META solid print post-close (+5% AH). During the day,
couple things to flag:• Reuters reported a New Mexico
jury ordered META to pay $25B over privacy claims,
Semafor reported at~3:17pm that META plans nonvoting
Shares and more stock sales to fund Al (confirmed in the
PR) and Anthropic opened a research preview of Claude
Duet, a proactive agent app.
META 盘后财报表现强劲(盘后上涨5%)。日内有几点值
得关注:•路透社报道,新墨西哥州陪审团因隐私指控判处
META 支付250亿美元;Semafor 在下午3:17报道称,
META 计划发行无投票权股份并进行更多股票销售以资助
AI 业务(已在公关稿中确认);Anthropic 开启了 Claude
Duet的研究预览,这是一款主动型智能体应用。
• GOOGL -1.6% (low -2.9%)on Cleveland's checks: Q3
trenas Slower at quarter-end on mixed retail and softer
ROI, with a lower 2027 ad outlook on reduced enthusiasm
for the LLM monetization ramp. Mizuho, still positive on
TPUS, Cut its multiple to 23x from 30x on search risk
which goes at the current push and pull between bulls
and bears: cloud vs. search and what multiple you pay for
the whole co. if search begins decel'ing close to LDD in
the next few quarters on tougher comps. Remember,
search is still majority of profits and carry much higher
margins than cloud so a mix shift here faces uphill battle.
EPS next Wednesday. Positioning/Sentiment the most
mixed out of the 4 hyperscalers as name has been used
as funding short.
GOOGL 下跌1.6%(低点下跌2.9%),受 Cleveland 调
研报告影响:由于零售业表现参差不齐且投资回报率
(ROI) 疲软,第三季度趋势在季未放缓,同时因对LLM
货币化增长的热情降低,下调了 2027年广告业务展望。瑞
穗证券(Mizuho)仍看好 TPU,但考虑到搜索业务风险,
将其估值倍数从30 倍下调至23倍,这正触及了目前多空
博弈核心:云计算与搜索业务的博弈,以及如果搜索业务
因基数较高而在未来几个季度减速至低双位数(LDD)增长,
你应该为整个公司支付多少倍的估值。请记住,搜索业务仍
贡献了大部分利润,且利润率远高于云计算,因此这里结
构性转变面临巨大挑战。下周三公布每股收益(EPS)。在
四大超大规模云服务商中,该股的仓位/情绪最为复杂,因
为该标的已被用作空头融资工具。
• AMZN -10bps. Snippet from MS' note earlier in the week
we missed:
AMZN下跌10个基点。摘录一段我们之前遗漏的摩根士丹
利(MS)本周早些时候的报告:
P Equity Research
X
@pequityresearch
Morgan Stanley: We believe AWS's planned incremental GPU purchases will
skew to Vera Rubin and Rubin Uitra, we see these extra chips ariving an extra
~2GW /~1 GW of compute capacity in'27/28 vs. our prior estimates.
• SPOT -14bps opened -3% on the NFLX read through
before recovering into tomorrow morning's print. The
glass half full read: If SPOT can thread the needle on the
Q4 GM guide, then SPOT could become one of the large
cap non Al supply chain stocks as NFLX remains in
funding short camp.
SPOT 下跌14个基点,受 NFLX 业绩解读影响开盘下跌
3%,随后在明早财报公布前有所回升。乐观的解读是:如
果 SPOT 能在第四季度毛利率(GM)指引上表现出色,那
么随着 NFLX仍处于资金流出阵营,SPOT 可能会成为大盘
股中非 AI供应链的标的之一。
• Travel sold off a day after outperforming on Jefferies's
better checks: EXPE -5%; BKNG-3.4%;ABNB-1.8%.
My guess is maybe some selling ahead of the META print
as investors remain concerned on the the agent
overhang: a check we heard found LLMs send NYC hotel
searches to branded results 87% of the time vs.41% on
Google, with brand-direct links at 97% vs. 13%.
旅游板块在因杰富瑞(Jefferies)乐观调研数据而走强一
天后遭到拋售:EXPE下跌5%;BKNG下跌3.4%;
ABNB下跌1.8%。我的猜测是,由于投资者仍担心 AI智能
体(agent)带来的负面影响,可能在 META 财报公布前出
现了一些抛售:我们听到一项调研发现,LLMS 将纽约市
酒店搜索引导至品牌结果的比例为 87%,而 Google 仅为
41%;品牌直连链接的比例为 97%,而 Google 仅为13%。
SE -3.1% extended Tuesday's-9% on Forrest Li's memo,
with the open-ended Sea Cloud capex and a possible
Monee IPO the overnangs as investors hesitant to add
into the print despite all the negativity.
SE下跌3.1%,延续了周二因李小冬 (Forrest Li) 内部信
导致9%跌幅,Sea Cloud 无上限的资本支出以及
Monee 可能的IPO 成为悬而未决的压力,尽管负面情绪笼
罩,投资者在财报公布前仍犹豫是否加仓。
SOFTWARE 软件
• Cyper ripped on critical vulnerabilities identified in PHP:
ZS +7.8%;OKTA +7.5%; CRWD +5.3%; NET +5% S
+3.5%;PANW +2%; FTNT +1.8%. TWo critical PHP
flaws let attackers run code remotely without logging in;
they were found with Al, OpenAl called it one of the most
impactful vulnerabilities in recent memory, and the WSJ
said Al had found a bug putting up to 70% of the world's
websites at risk. The ELI5 for all us non-technical folks via
Claude:
由于 PHP发现严重漏洞,网络安全板块大幅走高:ZS
+7.8%;OKTA +7.5%;CRWD +5.3%;NET +5%;S
+3.5%; PANW +2%; FTNT +1.8%。两个 PHP 严重漏洞
允许攻击者在无需登录的情况下远程运行代码;这些漏洞是
迎是A及现,NEIR!你景八千不影料取入浦心之
一,《华尔街日报》表示,AI发现这一漏洞使全球高达
70%的网站面临风险。以下是 Claude 为我们这些非技术
人员提供的通俗解释:
PHP is the behind-the-scenes software that builds a
web page each time you load it (your login screen,
your shopping cart). It runs about 70% of websites,
and the flawis in PHP itself, not in any one company's
code, so even a well-built site is exposed. A stranger
can send a specially crafted request, with no
password, and get the website's computer to run their
commands, letting them take it over, steal data, or
deface the site.
PHP 是一种幕后软件,每当你加载网页(如登录界面、
购物车)时,它都会负责构建页面。全球约70%网
站都在运行PHP,而该漏洞存在于PHP 本身,而非莫
家公司的代码中,因此即使是架构良好的网站也会暴露
在风险之下。陌生人可以发送一个特制的请求,无需密
码,即可让网站的计算机运行其指令,从而接管网站、
窃取数据或篡改页面。
The FBI's Cyber Division told organizations that can't
patch to take systems offline:
联邦调查局(FBI)网络部告知无法打补丁的机构将系统离
4:
t Token Gremlin reposteo
FBI Cyber Division Q
@FBICyb..•3h
Two critical vulnerabilities have been identified
in PHP, a widely used programming language
that powers websites and web applications.
These vulnerabilities (CVE-2026-109618 and
CVE-2026-109619) could allow malicious cyberl
actors to remotely execute code in PHP coreo
potentially compromising sensitive data and.
Tetworks.
成信公:
The FEl urses organizations to take the
following steps now:
If an immediate update is not feasible it is
recommended that organizations take the
System offiine until it can be fully mitigated.
Immediately update affected PHP
installations following the guidance on php.net.
InventorCwhere PHP runs in your environment,o
prioritizing internet-facing systems and vendoro
products that bundle PHP.
Monitor web servers for suspicious activity.
including PHP processes unexpectedly
launching command shells or doxmnioading files.
Ensure appropriate process-monitoring
capabilities are in place to help identify
potential exploitation.
I If you find signs of compromise, isolate
affected SVstems Dreserve vour web serverand
More Al-driven attack news throughout the day: The
Information reported hackers used Anthropic, Spacex
and Moonshot models to fully automate attacks on 400+
LatAm financial institutions, and MSFT said a China-
aligned group used an Al framework to get privileged
cloud access in under three hours. Evercore called out
the PHP winners: web firewalls (AKAM, FSLY, NET),
exposure management (TENB, QLYS, RPD) and endpoint
(PANW, S).
全天有更多 AI驱动的攻击消息:据 The Information 报道,
黑客利用 Anthropic、Spacex 和月之暗面(Moonshot)
的模型,实现了对 400多家拉美金融机构攻击的全自动
化;微软表示,一个与中国有关联团体利用 AI 框架在不
到三小时内获得了云端的特权访问权限。Evercore 点名了
PHP(私有混合平台)的赢家:Web 防火墙(AKAM、
FSLY、NET)、暴露管理(TENB、QLYS、RPD)和端点
安全(PANW、S)
Consumption stronger all day though didn't hear any
great reasons why other than the Al outperformance in
general: DDOG +6.5%; MDB +6.7% with SNOW
+98bps leading the rear. Didn't hear much on the SNOW
weakness: ISl was positive on CoCo checks, but also said
spending controls are becoming more common and
flagged the tougher comps heading into next year.
消费板块全天走势较强,尽管除了 AI板块整体表现优异外,
没听到什么特别好的理由:DDOG 上涨6.5%;MDB 上涨
6.7%,SNOW 上涨98个基点垫底。关于 SNOW 的疲软
没听到太多消息:ISI对 CoCo(消费控制)检查持积极态
度,但也表示支出控制正变得越来越普遍,并指出明年将面
临更严峻的同比基数压力。
• ZM +2% after its investor day set FY30 targets of 6-8%
revenue growth(VS. ~4% consensus) and a~40%
operating margin (from 33-36%); Oppenheimer
upgraded to Outperform saying they are gaining
confidence in "its transition from video meetings to a
broader Al communications and workflow platform”
ZM 上涨2%,此前其投资者日设定了 2030财年营收增长
6-8%的目标(市场预期为~4%),以及~40%营业利
润率(目前为33-36%);Oppenheimer 将其评级上调至
“跑赢大盘”,称对其“从视频会议向更广泛的 Al通信和工作
流平台转型”的信心正在增强。
• DOCN +2% gave back most of a premarket pop on
Piper's upgrade (Al accelerating ARR, financing concerns
overdone).
DOCN上涨 2%,在Piper上调评级(AI加速年度经常性
收入 ARR,融资担忧被过度放大)后,回吐了盘前的大部
分涨幅。[[source_end]]
• CRM -27bps digested the $5.66B BRZE deal (58%
premium). Wolfe called the deal a strategic necessity but
flagged near term Marketing cloud confusion the key risk.
Wolfe also flagged ADBE -65bps's Marketing Cloud
share at risk and modestly positive for TWLO +3.1%.
CRM-27bps,市场已消化其以 56.6亿美元收购 BRZE
交易(溢价58%)。Wolfe称该交易是战略必然,但指出
短期内营销云 (Marketing Cloud)的混乱是主要风险。
Wolfe 还指出 ADBE-65bps 的营销云份额面临风险,并对
TWLO +3.1% 持适度乐观态度。
ELSEWHERE 其他地方
• T-6.4% despite beats on revenue, EPS and FCF:
postpaid phone adds of 379K missed ~387K (405K a
year ago) even with iPhone 18 promos, fiber ARPU fell
4%, and management flagged higher Q4 marketing and
acquisition costs from an extended device launch cycle.
The bar we heard was an EBITDA guide signaling >4%
growth (Street ~3.9%) in a crowded name. Peers fell in
sympathy (TMUS -2.5%; VZ -2.2%; CHTR -2.5%;
CMCSA -1.3%) as T added a record 769K fiber and FWA
subs.
T-6.4%,尽管营收、EPS 和 FCF 均超预期:后付费手机
用户新增37.9万,低于预期的~38.7万(去年同期为
40.5万),即便有iPhone 18促销活动也未能达标;光纤
ARPU下跌4%,且管理层指出由于设备发布周期延长,第
上子反昌胡们狹合队牛付上T。我们听划以顶期正 EDIIUA
指引需显示 >4%增长(华尔街预期为~3.9%),而该
股筹码过于拥挤。由于T的光纤和 FWA 用户新增创纪录
76.9万,同行股价受累下跌(TMUS -2.5%;VZ-2.2%;
CHTR -2.5%;CMCSA -1.3%)。
• TSLA +3.4% into the print tonight as Elon said they had
formed a committee to evaluate a SPCX/TSLA merger.
TSLA +3.4%,今晚将发布财报,埃隆表示他们已成立委员
会评估 SPCX与 TSLA的合并事宜。
• DELL +5.3%; HPE +3.7% in sympathy with SMCI; JPM
called DELL out directly as a beneficiary of easing power
and financing constraints after SPCX's guide, and both
are partners on NVDA's DSX POD.
DELL +5.3%; HPE +3.7%,受SMCI 带动上涨;摩根大通
直接点名 DELL 是 SPCX 发布指引后电力和融资约束缓解
的受益者,且两者均为 NVDA DSXPOD的合作伙伴。
• MBLY -3.8% as RBC downgraded to Underperform,
arguing carmakers' move to central computers (NVDA,
QCOM) puts its driver-assist business at risk, along with
VW concentration and no new wins.
MBLY-3.8%,因加拿大皇家银行(RBC)将其评级下调至
“跑输大盘”,理由是汽车制造商向中央计算(NVDA、
QCOM) 的转型使其驾驶辅助业务面临风险,此外还存在
大众汽车(VW)客户集中度过高且无新订单的问题。
• COIN +3.6%;HOOD +3.8%;CRCL +4.5% with BTC
+3%. Rosenblatt initiated HOOD at Buy, and Mizuho's
survey of 600+ HOOD users had ~94% likely to trade
single-stock perps, 84% funding them mostly or entirely
with new money. Some good discussion on the bull vs
bear case in Slack's idea-dinner channel here:
COIN +3.6%; HOOD +3.8%; CRCL +4.5%,BTC 上涨
3%。Rosenblatt对 HOOD 给予“买入”初始评级;瑞穗对
600多名 HOOD用户的调查显示,~94%的用户可能会交
易个股永续合约,84%的用户主要或全部使用新资金为其
注资。Slack的 idea-dinner 频道中关于看涨与看跌观点
精彩讨论如下:
Akh 回 9:40AM
Anyone have thoughts on SHOOD? 1love the theme long term...as new generation comes online for investing, this is numero uno.
Good:
• less dependent/concentration on crypto
• Perpetual trading of futures, longer hours to trade options, play into the demographic
• On the leading edge of Al and agentic for trading
Bad:
● large part of bull case, prediction markets, seem destined to be curtailed in some form in the future...not near term concern
• when Al trade hits indigestion period, this will get hurt
● competition is formidable (although I think HOOD resonates best with young and first-time investors)
• AAPL +1.3% into Friday's iPhone Duo launch.
AAPL+1.3%,迎接周五 iPhone Duo发布。
BULLISH AND BEARISH
WEEKLY OPTION FLOW
每周看涨与看跌期权流向
Bullish♥
Symbol :の
INTC
Bearish
Symbol $の
DIS
VBIS
Trades $
16
15
12
15
13
17
11
AMAT
ISM
AAQI
COHR
7
8
Last Trade :
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
2026-10-20
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
2026-10-20
2026-10-20
2026-10-20
2026-1020
22026-10-21
2026-10-19
2026-10-20
2026-10-20
2026-10-20
2026-10-19
2026-10-21
2026-10-20
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
Score T
Premium ① $
Trades s
14
13
12
11
11
9
9
B
7
7
6
6
6
$60.3M
$30M
$21.4M
$61.5M
$15.5M
$7.88M
$55.5M
$34.8M
$5.71M
$5:51M
$7.42M
$12M
$41.5M
$8.85M
$5.17M
$8.34M
$22.3M
$14.7M
$25.5M
$4.55M
DI
DOX
DRIG
EHG
ELUT
EXI
HRL
4
1
1
Source: RunningoftheBulltards
来源:RunningoftheBulltards
Last Trade $
2026-10-19
2026-10-19
2026-10-19
2026-10-16
2026-10-19
2026-10-15
2026-10-19
2026-10-14
2026-10:20
2026-10-15
2026-10-15
2026-10-20
2026-10-19
2026-10-20
2026-10-19
2026-10-15
2026-10-20
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
2026-10-21
Score A
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
:1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Premium ®a
$1.49M
$7.3M
$2.53M
$1.87M
$2.37M
$2.87M
$140K
$318K
$1.15M
$675K
$1.43M
$7.81M
$381K
$725K
$214K
$275K
$206K
$305K
$1.49M
$233K

180K隔夜北美小结

已保存原件

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US EQUITIES COLOR: MO' BOUNCE
美股盘面分析:反弹持续
22 October 2026|4:52 AM China
Standard Time
■《 Share♥号 PDF
S&P +58bps closing @0 7,757 w/ a MOC of $400mm to BUY.NDX
+113bps @0 29,822, R2K +36bps 2,783, and Dow +69bps @
52,857.15.887bn shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs
ytd daily avg of 18.532bn shares. VIX -352bps @ 16.7, WTI Crude
-180bps @ $101.79, US 10YR unch @ 5.12%, gold +25bps @
4,135, dxy +24bps @ 101.69 and Bitcoin +210bps @ $84,485
标普500指数上涨58个基点,收于7,757点,收盘竞价
(MOC) 为4亿美元买入。纳斯达克100指数上涨113个基点
报29,822点;罗素2000指数上涨36个基点,报2,783点;道
琼斯指数上涨69个基点,报52,857点。美国各股票交易所总成
交量为158.87亿股,而今年以来日均成交量为185.32亿股。
VIX指数下跌352 个基点,报16.7; WTI原油下跌180个基点,
报101.79美元;美国10年期国债收益率持平于5.12%;黄金上
涨25个基点,报4,135美元;美元指数(DXY)上涨24个基
点,报101.69;比特币上涨210个基点,报84,485美元。
Mkt broadly boosted by Momentum + chasing in high velocity
pockets (SPCX > 1m call options). Bartlett: Mag7 lagged which felt
driven by increased competition concerns following SPCX SI
results, rotational dynamics into SPCX, Cleveland checks weighing
on GOOGL, possible source-of-funds trading into expected future
issuance. Semis bounced but felt underwhelming (particularly
coming off 10 of 11 sessions lower), despite positive news flow &
constructive global tech px action overnight (SMCI +10% on
positive pre). Our desk was NOT overly active today. Our floor was
a 5on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels, finishing +3%
better to buy on still relatively muted notional. Asset Mgr flows
finished ~flat with demand in Fins/Reits, industrials, and energy Vs
supply in utilities, Hcare, and tech. HFs finished small net buyers,
driven by demand in tech, Hcare, and Fins vs supply in comm
services.
市场受到动量因素广泛提振,高波动领域出现追涨(SPCX看涨
期权超过100万张)。Bartlett 指出:七巨头(Mag7)表现滯
后,这似乎是由于 SPCX纳入标普指数(SI)结果公布后对竞争加
剧的担忧、向 SPCX的轮动动态、克利夫兰调查(Cleveland
checks)对GOOGL压力,以及为应对预期中的未来发行而进
行的资金来源交易。半导体板块有所反弹,但表现乏力(尤其是
考虑到此前11个交易日中有10日下跌),尽管隔夜有积极新
闻流和建设性的全球科技股价格走势(SMCI因预盈积极上涨
10%)。我司交易台今日活跃度不高。以1-10分衡量,我司交易
大厅的整体活跃度为5分,在名义成交额依然相对低迷情况
下,最终录得3%净买入。资产管理公司 (Asset Mgr) 资金流
向最终持平,对金融、房地产信托(REITS)、工业和能源有需
求,而公用事业、医疗保健和科技板块则出现供应。对冲基金
(HFS)最终为小幅净买入,主要受科技、医疗保健和金融板块
需求驱动,而通信服务板块则出现供应。
POST BELL: META +5%... Solid Q3 Rev beat, guiding Q4 $73-
76bn nicely above $73.57bn. New class of stock coming Jan 27./1
TSLA (+) +4%...3Q deliveries were a clear beat and we already
got that news at the beginning of October. Qualitative
commentary seems more positive vs recent quarters.J/ LRCX
-7.5% .. beat on quarter with F2Q GMs 52.4% VS cons ~52% and
guides slightly above street // IBM +6%.. (was +4% into print
today).. software revs accel to +9% y/y cC (VS +5% y/y cc last qtr)
with a rebound in Transaction Processing revs
收盘后:META +5%..第三季度营收稳健超预期,第四季度指引
为730-760亿美元,高于预期的735.7亿美元。2027年1月将
推出新类别股票。// TSLA (+)+4%..第三季度交付量明显超预
期,我们在10月初已获悉该消息。定性评论较近期几个季度似乎
更为积极。// LRCX-7.5%..季度业绩超预期,第二财季毛利率为
52.4%,高于市场预期的52%,且指引略高于市场预期。//1BM
+6%…(今日财报发布前已上涨4%)…软件营收按固定汇率计算
同比增长加速至9%(上季度为5%),交易处理业务营收回升。
DERIVS: Fairly quiet day on the vol desk following VIX expiry this
AM, with the street cleaner coming out of the print. Index vol
caught a bid across the entire term structure, though a steady
compression in skew dominated the narrative as the session
progressed. Fixed strike vol was getting bid on the chase to the
topside, which we haven't seen in a while. The most notable shift
occurred flow wise as we finally saw buyers of short-dated upside
in real size ... $18m premium spent on both SPY Nov 800 calls and
Dec 810 calls. With positioning increasingly defensive, the desk
views right-tail hedges as historically cheap at current levels. Given
that the S&P sits ~1.1% off its Oct 6th peak, adding convex
insurance looks highly tactical here ... SPY Nov 800 815 call
spreads offer 8x payout. The S&P implied move for the rest of the
week goes out at 78bps. (TY Shayna Peart)
衍生品:今晨VIX到期后,波动率交易台全天表现较为平淡,财
报发布后市场情绪有所出清。指数波动率在整个期限结构上均获
得买盘支撑,但随着交易时段的推进,偏度(skew)的持续压缩
主导了市场走势。在追涨行情中,固定行权价波动率获得买盘,
这是近期少见的现象。资金流方面最显著的变化是,我们终于看
到了大额短线看涨期权的买家…...在 SPY 11月800看涨期权和
12月810看涨期权上各投入了1800万美元的权利金。随着仓位
日益趋向防御性,交易台认为目前水平的右尾对冲工具处于历史
低位。鉴于标普 500指数较10月6日的高点仅下跌1.1%,在此
处增加凸性保险极具战术意义.....SPY 11月800/815看涨期权价
差组合提供8倍赔率。本周剩余时间标普500指数隐含波动位
移为78个基点。(感谢 Shayna Peart)
HFS have heavily net sold global equities so far in October,
driven by short sales far outpacing long buys (~5 to 1).
Overall Long leverage now sits in the 73rd percentile vs.the
past year (94th percentile 5-year), while Short leverage has
risen sharply and is approaching 5-year highs in the 99th
percentile.
10月至令,对冲基金大幅净卖出全球股票,主要原因是卖空规模
远超做多买入(比例约为5:1)。目前,整体多头杠杆率处于过
去一年中的第73百分位(过去五年中第94百分位);与此同
时,空头杠杆率大幅上升,正逼近五年高点,处于第99百分位。
Overall Prime Book: Long vs Short Leverage
205
200-
195-
190-
185
180
175
170-
165
160-
155
150-
145
140-
2022
JanJul Jan
Long Leverage (%, left)
2023
2024
Jul
Jan Jull
Jan
2025
Jut
Short Leverage (%, right)
2026
Jan Jul
125
120
115
110
-105
100
•95
90
85
80
-75
-70
长按关注|微信公众号180K
TECHNOLOGY
SEMICONDUCTORS
AVGO
+1.03%
NVDA
+2.54%
AMD
+3.36%
SOFTWARE - INFRASTRUCTURE
PLTR
ORCL
+4.74%
MSFT
+0.20%
PANW CRWD
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS
AAPL
+1.32%
MU
+1,96%
INTC
+1.39%
MRVL ADI
TXN
+2,47%
COMPUTER HARDWA
ANET
STX
+1.73%
DELL
SNDK
P
+0.94%
SEMICON
SOFTWA
LRCX
CRM
-1.00%
UBER
ADP
AMAT
+0.98%
KLAC
+1.04%
COMMUNICA
IBM
+3.94%
CSCO
+0.52%
ELECTRONIC
TEL
APH
COMMUNICATION SERVIC CONSUMER CYCLICAL
INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATI
INTERNET RETAIL
GOOGL
-1.62%
META
+0.47%
TELECOM SERV
VZ
T
FINANCIAL
BANKS - DIVERSI
BAC
+0.28%
ENTERTAINM
NFLX
DIS
JPM
-0.02%
WFCC
INSURANCE-
CREDIT SERVI
V
+0.32%
MA
+0.35%
ASSET M
FINAN
BLK
BRK-B
-0.15%
ICE
BX
BANKS-
CAPITAL MAR
CB
MS
GS
TRV
ALL
PNC
INSURA
AMZN
-0.10%
AUTO MAN
HOMEI
HD
RESTA
TSLA
+3.41%
TJX
INDUSTRIALS
AEROSPACE &
FARM&H
GE
BA
CAT
DE
-1.33%
+2.06%
RTX
-0.90%
GD
JCI
BE
SPECIALTY IND
GEV
PH
+4.00
ETN
CONSUMER DEFENSIVE
DISCOUNT ST
BEVERAGES
KO
PEP
WMT
-0.04%
COST
-0.87%
HOUSEHOL
PG
TOBAC
PM
-1.22
HEALTHCARE
DRUG MANUFACTURERS - GE
MRK
JNJ
-0.61%
+1.06%
LLY
-1.01%
ABBV
-1.48%
DIAGNOSTI
PFE
BMY
MEDICAL
ABT
SYK
TMO
MDT
HEALTHCAR
UNH
CI
-0.54
ISRG
MCK
UNP
ELV
ENERGY
OIL & GA
XOM
+0.13%
CVX
+0.47%
UTILITI
UTILITIES -
D
NEE
COP
MPC
VLO
PSX
OIL &
REALE
SO
BASIC MATERIAL
SPECIALTY

180K转发:Meta融资原文件

已保存原件

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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
____________________________________________
SCHEDULE 14C
Information Statement Pursuant to Section 14(c) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
____________________________________________
Check the appropriate box:
ý Preliminary Information Statement
¨ Confidential, for Use of the Commission Only (as permitted by Rule 14c-5(d)(2))
¨ Definitive Information Statement
Meta Platforms, Inc.
(Name of Registrant as Specified In Its Charter)
Payment of Filing Fee (Check all boxes that apply):
ý No fee required.
¨ Fee paid previously with preliminary materials.
¨ Fee computed on table in exhibit required by Item 25(b) of Schedule 14A (17 CFR 240.14a-101) per Item 1 of this Schedule and Exchange Act Rules
14c-5(g) and 0-11
1 Meta Way
Menlo Park, California 94025
NOTICE OF ACTION TAKEN BY WRITTEN CONSENT BY HOLDERS OF
A MAJORITY OF THE AGGREGATE VOTING POWER
OF ALL OUTSTANDING SHARES OF CAPITAL STOCK OF META PLATFORMS, INC.
To Our Shareholders:
This notice and accompanying information statement (the "Information Statement") is being distributed to the holders of record, as of the close of business
on October 20, 2026 (the "Record Date"), of the Class A common stock and the Class B common stock of Meta Platforms, Inc. (the "Company," "Meta," "we,"
"us," or "our").
The purpose of the Information Statement is to inform you of action taken by holders of a majority of the voting power of the outstanding shares of capital
stock of the Company to (i) amend and restate the Company's Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation (the "Charter"), to be effective as of January
19, 2027 (the "Charter Effective Date"), to, among other things, establish a new class of capital stock, which will be known as Class C common stock (as so
amended and restated, the "Restated Charter"), and (ii) amend and restate the Meta Platforms, Inc. 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (the "2025 Plan") to, among
other things, provide that shares available for issuance thereunder can consist of either shares of our Class A common stock or shares of our new Class C
common stock, as further described in this Information Statement (the "Equity Plan Amendment"). On the Record Date, the Consenting Shareholders (as defined
below) delivered to the Company a written consent (the "Written Consent") approving the Restated Charter and the Equity Plan Amendment.
The "Consenting Shareholders" are, collectively, CZI Holdings, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings II, LLC, Chan
Zuckerberg Holdings III, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings IV, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings V, LLC, and Chan Zuckerberg Holdings VI, LLC. As of the close of
business on the Record Date, the Consenting Shareholders together owned 315,826,951 shares of the Company's Class B common stock, representing
approximately 56.1% of the voting power of the outstanding shares of capital stock of the Company, on a combined basis.
Our board of directors (the "Board") has (i) adopted and declared advisable, based on the unanimous recommendation of a special committee consisting
of disinterested and independent directors established to review such transaction (the "Special Committee"), the Restated Charter, which adjusts our capital
structure by establishing a new class of capital stock, which will be known as Class C common stock (the "Recapitalization"), and (ii) declared a dividend of one
share of Class C common stock for each outstanding share of Class A common stock and Class B common stock (the "Dividend"), contingent upon the filing and
effectiveness of the Restated Charter. Based on the recommendation of the Special Committee and as further described below, our Board believes that the
Recapitalization and Dividend are in the best interests of the Company and our shareholders in order to, among other things, (i) create a publicly traded, non-
voting equity security that the Company may use for capital raising, employee compensation, potential acquisitions, and other general corporate purposes, in
each case, without diluting the voting power of the existing Class A and Class B common stock; (ii) establish a deep and liquid trading market for Class C
common stock designed to minimize any trading-value discount relative to the Class A common stock; (iii) in addition to the initial number of shares of Class C
common stock that are freely transferable immediately following the Dividend, ensure that Mr. Zuckerberg's ability to freely transfer his economic interest in his
remaining shares of Class C common stock from the Dividend is permitted only in compliance with the Founder Alignment Agreement (as defined below); (iv)
ensure that future dividends of Class C common stock pursuant to the Founder Alignment Agreement are subject to the Company's achievement of extraordinary
stock price targets and certain other conditions in the Founder Alignment Agreement; and (v) continue to align with the determinations historically made by the
Board, acting through its Compensation, Nominating & Governance Committee, as disclosed in the Company's annual proxy statements, that Mr. Zuckerberg's
equity ownership sufficiently aligns his interests with those of the Company's shareholders such that no cash compensation or equity or equity-based awards to
him are warranted (and, by not having to establish any such cash compensation or grant any such equity or equity-based awards, accrue significant benefit to
the Company's shareholders by avoiding the compensation expense and impact on the Company's stock price that any such cash compensation program or
equity or equity-based grants to Mr. Zuckerberg would have imposed on the Company's shareholders). The Company also expects to conduct offerings of Class
C common stock from time to time in the future.
In order to establish the Class C common stock, it is necessary to amend and restate the Charter. The Board has also adopted and declared advisable
the Equity Plan Amendment to, among other things, include shares of Class C common stock for issuance thereunder. The Equity Plan Amendment will be
effective as of, and is conditioned upon, the filing and
2
effectiveness of the Restated Charter. The Restated Charter and the Equity Plan Amendment were approved by the Consenting Shareholders on October 20,
2026.
Following the unanimous recommendation of the Special Committee, the Board approved, declared advisable, and recommended the Restated Charter
and the Equity Plan Amendment for approval by the Company's shareholders, and the Consenting Shareholders approved the Restated Charter and the Equity
Plan Amendment, in each case, pursuant to the General Corporation Law of the State of Delaware (the "DGCL"), the Charter, and the Company's Amended and
Restated Bylaws (the "Bylaws"). A copy of the Restated Charter showing the changes from the Charter, with deleted text shown in strikethrough and added or
moved text shown as underlined, is attached as Annex A to the Information Statement. A copy of the Equity Plan Amendment showing the changes from the
2025 Plan, with deleted text shown in strikethrough and added or moved text shown as underlined, is attached as Annex B to the Information Statement.
In connection with the Recapitalization, Mr. Zuckerberg entered into the Founder Alignment Agreement with the Company. The Founder Alignment
Agreement governs dispositions of shares of Class C common stock by Mr. Zuckerberg and the other members of the Holder Group (as defined below) following
the Dividend, as well as certain other conditions. The Founder Alignment Agreement also governs the timing of future dividends of shares of Class C common
stock, subject to legally available funds. Mr. Zuckerberg's ability to sell his shares of Class C common stock received in the Dividend is subject to the terms of
the Founder Alignment Agreement. A copy of the Founder Alignment Agreement is attached as Annex C to the Information Statement.
The Written Consent constitutes the only shareholder approval required to approve the Restated Charter and the Equity Plan Amendment under the
DGCL, the Charter, and the Bylaws. The Board is not soliciting your proxy or consent in connection with the Restated Charter and the Equity Plan
Amendment and no proxies or consents are being requested from shareholders.
The Information Statement is being furnished only to (1) inform the Company's shareholders of the actions described above before they take effect in
accordance with Rule 14c-2 promulgated under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and (2) provide the notice required under Section 228(e) of
the DGCL. The Company intends to file the Restated Charter with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware on or about October 21, 2026, but the
Restated Charter will not be effective until the Charter Effective Date. The Equity Plan Amendment also will be effective upon the Charter Effective Date. This
Notice of Internet Availability of Information Statement is being distributed and made available on or about [●], 2026 to shareholders of record as of the Record
Date.
This Information Statement does not constitute an offer to sell, or an invitation on our behalf, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any of the equity securities
described herein, including the Class C common stock, and may not be used for or in connection with an offer or solicitation by anyone, in any jurisdiction in
which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.
THE INFORMATION STATEMENT IS FOR YOUR INFORMATION ONLY. YOU DO NOT NEED TO DO ANYTHING IN RESPONSE TO THE
INFORMATION STATEMENT. THIS IS NOT A NOTICE OF A MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS AND NO SHAREHOLDER MEETING WILL BE HELD TO
CONSIDER ANY MATTER DESCRIBED IN THE INFORMATION STATEMENT. WE ARE NOT ASKING YOU FOR A PROXY OR YOUR VOTE AND YOU ARE
REQUESTED NOT TO SEND US A PROXY.
IMPORTANT NOTICE OF INTERNET AVAILABILITY OF INFORMATION STATEMENT: THE INFORMATION STATEMENT IS AVAILABLE AT
www.materialnotice.com.
Katherine R. Kelly
Vice President and Corporate Secretary
3
INFORMATION STATEMENT
WE ARE NOT ASKING YOU FOR A PROXY AND
YOU ARE REQUESTED NOT TO SEND US A PROXY.
PURPOSE OF INFORMATION STATEMENT
This Information Statement (this "Information Statement") advises shareholders of Meta Platforms, Inc. (the "Company," "Meta," "we," "us," or "our") of
action taken by holders of a majority of the voting power of the outstanding shares of capital stock of the Company to (i) amend and restate the Company's
Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation (the "Charter"), to be effective as of January 19, 2027 (the "Charter Effective Date"), to, among other things,
establish a new class of capital stock, which will be known as Class C common stock (as so amended and restated, the "Restated Charter"), and (ii) amend and
restate the Meta Platforms, Inc. 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (the "2025 Plan") to, among other things, provide that the shares available for issuance can consist of
either shares of our Class A common stock or shares of our new Class C common stock, as further described in this Information Statement (the "Equity Plan
Amendment"). On October 19, 2026, based on the unanimous recommendation of a special committee consisting of disinterested and independent directors
established to review such transaction (the "Special Committee"), the board of directors of the Company (the "Board") approved, declared advisable, and
recommended that the Company's shareholders approve the Restated Charter and the Equity Plan Amendment. The record date for the shareholder approval
was October 20, 2026 (the "Record Date"). On the Record Date, the Consenting Shareholders (as defined below) delivered to the Company a written consent
(the "Written Consent") approving the Restated Charter and the Equity Plan Amendment. The "Consenting Shareholders" are, collectively, CZI Holdings, LLC,
Chan Zuckerberg Holdings, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings II, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings III, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg Holdings IV, LLC, Chan Zuckerberg
Holdings V, LLC, and Chan Zuckerberg Holdings VI, LLC. Attached as Annex A to this Information Statement is a copy of the Restated Charter showing the
changes from the Charter, with deleted text shown in strikethrough and added or moved text shown as underlined. Attached as Annex B to this Information
Statement is a copy of the Equity Plan Amendment showing the changes from the 2025 Plan, with deleted text shown in strikethrough and added or moved text
shown as underlined.
This Information Statement is being furnished to (1) inform the Company's shareholders of the actions described herein before they take effect in
accordance with Rule 14c-2 promulgated under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and (2) provide the notice required
under Section 228(e) of the General Corporation Law of the State of Delaware (the "DGCL"). The Company intends to file the Restated Charter with the
Secretary of State of the State of Delaware on or about October 21, 2026, but the Restated Charter will not be effective until the Charter Effective Date. The
Equity Plan Amendment also will be effective upon the Charter Effective Date. This Information Statement is being distributed and made available on or about
[●], 2026 to shareholders of record as of the Record Date.
4
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF ACTION
After receiving the unanimous recommendation of the Special Committee, our Board has determined that it is advisable and in the best interest of the
Company and our shareholders to adjust our capital structure by establishing a new class of capital stock, which will be known as Class C common stock (the
"Recapitalization") and declare a dividend of one share of Class C common stock for each outstanding share of Class A common stock and Class B common
stock. The Class C common stock will be available for use for capital raising, employee compensation, potential acquisitions, and other general corporate
purposes.
Our Board has declared a dividend of one share of Class C common stock for each outstanding share of Class A common stock and Class B common
stock, contingent upon the filing and effectiveness of the Restated Charter (the "Dividend"). The record date and payment date of the Dividend will be
determined and approved by the Board by subsequent action, with such payment date to occur no later than the fifth business day following the effectiveness of
the Restated Charter, subject to applicable law. Further, in connection with the Recapitalization, the Company has entered into the Founder Alignment
Agreement (the "Founder Alignment Agreement") with Mark Zuckerberg, our founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer ("CEO"), as summarized below.
Shareholder approval of the Dividend and the Founder Alignment Agreement is not required and was not included in the Written Consent.
As more fully explained below, the Recapitalization and the Dividend will not initially affect the relative voting power or economic interest of any
shareholder. However, following the payment date of the Dividend, we expect that the market price for the shares of our Class A common stock will reflect the
effect of a two-for-one stock split.
The shares of our Class A common stock will continue to trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC ("Nasdaq"). We intend to qualify the shares of our Class
C common stock for listing on Nasdaq upon their issuance as a result of the Dividend.
The Special Committee
The Special Committee was established in February 2026 as a committee of our Board, and in March 2026, our Board delegated to the Special
Committee the full power and authority of our Board, to the fullest extent permitted under the DGCL, to (i) review, analyze, and evaluate potential modifications
to our capital structure, including the ability to trade shares of our Class B common stock and the potential creation of a new class of low- or no-vote common
stock to permit us to raise equity capital, (ii) identify and evaluate potential alternatives to any such modification, (iii) make a recommendation to our Board
regarding any such modification or any alternative thereto, and (iv) approve or reject any such modification on behalf of our Board.
Our Board appointed Ambassador Robert M. Kimmitt, Charles Songhurst, and Tony Xu as members of the Special Committee, and the members of the
Special Committee confirmed Ambassador Kimmitt as its Chair. The Special Committee retained Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP as its legal counsel
and Moelis & Company LLC as its financial advisor.
Our Board determined that each member of the Special Committee was independent of Mr. Zuckerberg and was disinterested with respect to the
Recapitalization, and that none of them had any material interest in the Recapitalization. The Special Committee unanimously (i) determined that each of the
Restated Charter, the Dividend, and the Founder Alignment Agreement is advisable, fair to, and in the best interests of the Company and our shareholders,
including the holders of our Class A common stock, (ii) recommended that our Board approve, adopt, and declare advisable the Restated Charter and thereafter
submit it for the written consent of the shareholders entitled to vote thereon, and (iii) recommended that our Board declare and pay the Dividend, effective upon
and subject to the effectiveness of the Restated Charter.
Founder Alignment Agreement
In connection with the Recapitalization and the Dividend, the Company and Mark Zuckerberg have entered into a Founder Alignment Agreement, which
limits the ability of Mr. Zuckerberg and certain of his permitted transferees (together with Mr. Zuckerberg, the “Holder Group”) to sell shares of Class C common
stock without a corresponding reduction in Mr. Zuckerberg’s voting power, by conditioning sales of such shares on compliance with the Stapling Condition (as
described below).
Mr. Zuckerberg generally cannot obtain liquidity in a significant majority of the non-voting Class C common stock that he will receive in the Dividend
without a corresponding reduction in his voting power. Pursuant to the Founder Alignment Agreement, 20% of the shares of Class C common stock to be issued
to the Holder Group in the Dividend will be freely saleable and the other 80% of the shares of Class C common stock will be subject to sale and transfer
restrictions (any shares of Class C common stock subject to such sale and transfer restrictions, the “Stapled Class C Shares”). The Holder Group generally may
only sell Stapled Class C Shares if, for each such Stapled Class C Share sold, the Holder Group, no later than two business days after the settlement of such
sale, sells one share of Class A or Class B common stock, or converts one share of Class B common stock into a share of Class A common stock, or a
combination thereof, or applies Stapling Credits (as defined below) (the “Stapling Condition”). However, if immediately prior to such sale the number of Stapled
Class C Shares
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then held by the Holder Group exceeds the sum of the shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock then held by the Holder Group plus its
unapplied Stapling Credits (including as a result of the payment of Additional Dividends (as defined below)) (the “Unstapling Capacity”), the number of shares of
Class A common stock or Class B common stock that the Holder Group must sell, or the number of shares of Class B common stock that the Holder Group must
convert into shares of Class A common stock, or any combination thereof, will be proportionately reduced (rounded up to the nearest whole share) by multiplying
it by a fraction equal to the Unstapling Capacity divided by the number of Stapled Class C Shares then held, which fraction shall not be greater than one (the
“Unstapling Ratio”). In addition, following the payment of the Dividend, the Holder Group accrues credit for each sale of Class A common stock or Class B
common stock, or conversion of Class B common stock into Class A common stock, that is not made in connection with a sale of Stapled Class C Shares (each
such credit, as equitably adjusted for stock splits, reverse stock splits, combinations, reclassifications or similar events, a “Stapling Credit”) that may be applied
to future sales of Stapled Class C Shares, at a rate equal to the Unstapling Ratio per Stapled Class C Share sold, such that such sales of Stapled Class C
Shares are deemed to be in compliance with the Stapling Condition. Stapling Credits do not expire and may be accrued and applied in fractional amounts. At the
time the Holder Group no longer holds any shares of Class B common stock, all Stapled Class C Shares then held by the Holder Group will be deemed released
from the Stapling Condition and no shares held or acquired thereafter will be subject to the Stapling Condition.
If a member of the Holder Group sells Stapled Class C Shares in violation of the Stapling Condition, the Holder Group will be deemed to have irrevocably
converted a number of its shares of Class B common stock into Class A common stock equal to the number of Stapled Class C Shares so sold multiplied by the
Unstapling Ratio (rounded up to the nearest whole share). The Founder Alignment Agreement provides that, in the case of an inadvertent error with respect to a
sale or transfer of Stapled Class C Shares, the Holder Group will have five trading days after the earlier of the Company notifying Mr. Zuckerberg, or Mr.
Zuckerberg notifying the Company, of such sale to cure the violation and avoid the automatic conversion of shares of Class B common stock by selling or
converting the number of shares of Class A common stock or Class B common stock that would have been required for a compliant sale, causing the sale of
Stapled Class C Shares to be rescinded or unwound, or designating an equal number of unstapled shares of Class C common stock as Stapled Class C Shares.
The Holder Group may transfer shares of Class A common stock, Class B common stock or Class C common stock among themselves as permitted by
the Restated Charter. In addition, Mr. Zuckerberg may also transfer shares of Class A common stock or Class C common stock to any other person in a
charitable or estate planning transfer provided that Mr. Zuckerberg has certified to the Company prior to such transfer its treatment as a permitted transferee and
such transferee will thereafter be subject to the terms and conditions of the Founder Alignment Agreement, including the Stapling Condition with respect to any
Stapled Class C Shares so transferred. Mr. Zuckerberg has also agreed to cause each member of the Holder Group to comply with the Company’s insider
trading policy as in effect from time to time, with respect to the Class A common stock, Class B common stock, Class C common stock and all other Company
securities.
On the last day of the first full calendar quarter following the payment of the Dividend and on the last day of each calendar quarter thereafter, a number of
Stapled Class C Shares then held by the Holder Group equal to 2.5% of the shares of Class C common stock issued to the Holder Group in the Dividend will be
released from the Stapling Condition, provided that Mr. Zuckerberg remains employed by the Company on the executive team or as the executive chair of the
Board, in either case, on a full-time basis (the “Continued Leadership Condition”) at all times during such calendar quarter. Calendar quarters in which the
Continued Leadership Condition is not satisfied at all times do not count toward the release schedule, which need not be satisfied over consecutive quarters, but
no shares are forfeited if the Continued Leadership Condition is not met. Upon the thirty-second calendar quarter in which the Continued Leadership Condition
has been satisfied at all times, all remaining Stapled Class C Shares then held by the Holder Group will be released from the Stapling Condition. Mr. Zuckerberg
has also separately committed, for eight years following the date of the Founder Alignment Agreement, and so long as the Continued Leadership Condition is
met, to remain a resident of California or any other jurisdiction in which the Company maintains its corporate headquarters, absent material unforeseen
circumstances rendering it prudent or advisable for him to reside elsewhere.
Under the Founder Alignment Agreement, our Board has agreed to declare an additional dividend of Class C common stock at a 1:1 ratio for each then
outstanding share of Class A common stock, Class B common stock and Class C common stock following the first date on which both of the following conditions
have been satisfied (such date, an "Additional Dividend Date," and each such dividend, an "Additional Dividend"): (i) the 30-day volume weighted average price
of the Class C common stock reaches a successive doubling, initially 2x, then 4x, then 8x and so on, of the corresponding price of the Class A common stock on
September 10, 2026 of $580.60 per share, as equitably adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, recapitalizations and other equitable adjustments (including
with respect to the Dividend) (such event, a "Doubling Event"), and (ii) the compound annualized shareholder return from September 10, 2026, calculated on the
basis of the 30-day volume weighted average price and giving effect to the reinvestment of cash dividends and distributions, is no less than 10%. No more than
one Additional Dividend may be paid in respect of any single Doubling Event, and no Additional Dividend Date may occur following Mr. Zuckerberg's death. Any
shares of Class C common stock issued to Mr. Zuckerberg and the Holder Group in any Additional Dividend will not be subject to the Stapling Condition if, on the
Additional Dividend Date, the Continued Leadership Condition is satisfied. If, on the Additional Dividend Date, the Continued Leadership Condition is not
satisfied, a number of shares of Class C common stock equal to (i) the total number of shares of Class C common stock payable to the Holder Group in
connection with the Additional Dividend multiplied by (ii) a fraction equal to (x) the sum of shares of Class B common stock
6
held by the Holder Group plus the number of Stapled Class C Shares held by the Holder Group divided by (y) the total number of shares of Class A, Class B and
Class C common stock held by the Holder Group, in each case of clause (x) and (y), measured as of the last date the Continued Leadership Condition was
satisfied (the “Post-Leadership Stapling Number”), shall be deemed Stapled Class C Shares and subject to the Stapling Condition and only released from the
Stapling Condition if Mr. Zuckerberg thereafter satisfies the Continued Leadership Condition for at least six consecutive months (or upon the Holder Group no
longer holding any shares of Class B common stock). If the Board fails to declare and pay an Additional Dividend within a reasonable time and at a time when
payment of such Additional Dividend is permitted by Section 173 of the DGCL, as prescribed by the Founder Alignment Agreement, a number of Stapled Class C
Shares then held by the Holder Group equal to the number of shares of Class C common stock the Holder Group would have received in such Additional
Dividend (or, if fewer, all remaining Stapled Class C shares) will be released from the Stapling Condition, and the Company shall remain obligated to declare and
pay such Additional Dividend.
In the event of (i) any merger, consolidation, conversion or other business combination requiring the approval of the holders of our capital stock, whether
or not the Company is the surviving entity, or the acquisition of all or substantially all of our assets; (ii) any tender or exchange offer by a third party to acquire a
majority of the shares of Class A common stock, Class B common stock or Class C common stock; or (iii) any tender or exchange offer by the Company to
acquire any such shares, neither Mr. Zuckerberg nor the Holder Group may sell, transfer, exchange or convert any shares in or in connection with that
transaction for (a) as to their shares of Class A common stock, an amount per share greater than, or a form of consideration different from that which, the other
holders of Class A common stock would receive or may elect to receive, (b) as to their shares of Class B common stock, an amount per share greater than, or a
form of consideration different from that which, the other holders of Class B common stock would receive or may elect to receive or (c) as to their shares of Class
C common stock, an amount per share greater than, or a form of consideration different from that which, the other holders of Class C common stock would
receive or may elect to receive.
Further, from and after the payment of the Dividend, in the event the Company, with the approval of the Board, determines to repurchase shares of Class
A common stock, the Company and the Board shall, in good faith, use their best efforts to contemporaneously repurchase at least an equal number of shares of
Class C common stock on an aggregate basis.
Mr. Zuckerberg may terminate the Founder Alignment Agreement if the Restated Charter is not filed with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware
within two business days of the date of the Founder Alignment Agreement or is not effective by January 19, 2027 (or any agreed extension), the Dividend is not
paid by the fifth business day following the effectiveness of the Restated Charter (subject to applicable Delaware law and any agreed extension), the Company
materially breaches the Founder Alignment Agreement and fails to cure within thirty days of receiving notice of such breach, or a material Company commitment
under the Founder Alignment Agreement (or under any provision of the Restated Charter added in connection with the matters contemplated by the Founder
Alignment Agreement) ceases to be in full force and effect or is modified without Mr. Zuckerberg’s prior written consent. The Company, with the approval of a
committee of the Board consisting of at least two directors, or the audit & privacy committee, in each case with members that the Board has determined to be
disinterested with respect to the matters set forth in the Founder Alignment Agreement, may terminate the Founder Alignment Agreement if Mr. Zuckerberg
materially breaches the Founder Alignment Agreement and fails to cure within thirty days of receiving notice of such breach, or if a material commitment by Mr.
Zuckerberg under the Founder Alignment Agreement (or under any provision of the Restated Charter added in connection with the matters contemplated by the
Founder Alignment Agreement) ceases to be in full force and effect or is modified without the Company’s prior written consent.
The foregoing description of the Founder Alignment Agreement is qualified by reference to, and should be read in conjunction with, the full text of the
Founder Alignment Agreement, which is included as Annex C to this Information Statement.
The Special Committee's Reasons for the Recapitalization, the Adoption of the Restated Charter, and the Dividend
The Special Committee believes that the Recapitalization, the adoption of the Restated Charter, and the declaration and payment of the Dividend, and
entering into the Founder Alignment Agreement with Mr. Zuckerberg in accordance with the terms thereof, are advisable, fair to and in the best interests of the
Company and our shareholders in order to (i) create a publicly traded, non-voting equity security that the Company may use for capital raising, employee
compensation, potential acquisitions, and other general corporate purposes, in each case, without diluting the voting power of the existing Class A and Class B
common stock; (ii) establish a deep and liquid trading market for Class C common stock designed to minimize any trading-value discount relative to the Class A
common stock; (iii) in addition to the initial number of shares of Class C common stock that are freely transferable immediately following the Dividend, ensure
that Mr. Zuckerberg’s ability to freely transfer his economic interest in his remaining shares of Class C common stock from the Dividend is permitted only in
compliance with the Stapling Condition, with a number of shares equal to 2.5% of the shares of Class C common stock issued to Mr. Zuckerberg in the Dividend
released from such conditions for each full calendar quarter during which the Continued Leadership Condition is satisfied at all times; (iv) ensure that future
dividends of Class C common stock pursuant to the Founder Alignment Agreement are subject to the Company’s achievement of extraordinary stock price
targets, and, with respect to Mr. Zuckerberg, subject to the Stapling Condition for a number of shares of Class C common stock equal to the Post-Leadership
Stapling Number, unless the Continued Leadership Condition is satisfied as of the date of the event giving rise to such dividend; and (v) continue to align with
the determinations historically made by the Board, acting through its Compensation, Nominating & Governance
7
Committee, as disclosed in the Company’s annual proxy statements, that Mr. Zuckerberg’s equity ownership sufficiently aligns his interests with those of the
Company’s shareholders such that no cash compensation or equity or equity-based awards to him are warranted (and, by not having to establish any such cash
compensation or grant any such equity or equity-based awards, accrue significant benefit to the Company’s shareholders by avoiding the compensation expense
and impact on the Company’s stock price that any such cash compensation program or equity or equity-based grants to Mr. Zuckerberg would have imposed on
the Company’s shareholders). The Special Committee and our Board (with Mr. Zuckerberg abstaining) approved the Recapitalization, the Dividend and the
adoption of the Restated Charter and the Special Committee further approved the Founder Alignment Agreement. The discussion of the information and factors
that the Special Committee considered below in making its respective determinations, recommendations, and resolutions is not intended to be exhaustive but
includes the material factors considered. In view of the wide variety of factors considered and the complexity of these matters, the Special Committee did not find
it useful to, and did not attempt to, quantify, rank, or otherwise assign relative weight to these factors. In addition, the individual members of the Special
Committee may have assigned different weights to different factors. At all times, the members of the Special Committee prioritized the best interests of the
Company’s Class A shareholders.
Provide the Company with Necessary Liquid Capital to Evolve, Grow, and Compete
The Special Committee determined that the ability to issue non-voting shares of Class C common stock via the Recapitalization and the Dividend will
provide us with the critical ability to raise equity capital to finance our evolution and growth, and help us remain a leader among fierce competition domestically
and from foreign competitors. The scale of investment required to compete, sustain our growth, expand our infrastructure, and pursue new strategic initiatives
amidst the dramatic transformation taking place in the tech industry and global economy related to artificial intelligence is unprecedented. The ability to raise
equity capital through issuances of Class C common stock will allow us access to the equity markets to meet our capital requirements without diluting the voting
power of our current shareholders or affecting Mr. Zuckerberg’s leadership or his current control of the Company (discussed more fully below), which is in the
best interests of all shareholders in light of his track record of creating exceptional value for Company shareholders. The Special Committee considered whether
the Company could issue Class A common stock in order to raise capital, but Mr. Zuckerberg made it clear during the course of the negotiations with the Special
Committee that he would not support a significant equity financing that would have the effect of reducing his voting power in the Company. The Special
Committee also considered whether debt financing could be an alternative for the financing needs of the Company but recognized that debt financing
alternatives of the magnitude that Company management was considering could have an adverse effect on the Company’s credit ratings and would be a less
attractive alternative for the Company.
The Special Committee also recognized that timing is important to secure capital before competitors saturate various funding options. Recent significant
capital raises at other notable companies, and others soon anticipated to take place, to fund the same AI growth—for example, Alphabet, SpaceX, Anthropic,
and OpenAI—have resulted in an increasingly challenging environment for raising capital. The Special Committee considered that, while the Company presently
has sufficient capital resources for its current needs, in order to finance its funding needs going forward it would be prudent for the Company to do so before
even more companies have absorbed available capital in the market. In addition, management had conveyed to the Special Committee a desire for the Class C
common stock to be available for use as early as the end of 2026. The Special Committee determined that it is preferable to implement the Recapitalization and
Dividend now, so that we are positioned to act with speed and flexibility when capital needs or strategic opportunities arise and so that, with the Dividend, there
will be a liquid market for the Class C common stock. The Company expects to use shares of Class C common stock to conduct equity offerings from time to
time in the future, subject to market conditions.
We are at a significant inflection point in our industry where there is rapid technological advance driven by the growth of AI and concomitant enormous
need for capital. The Special Committee recognized that this inflection point represents an unprecedented market opportunity for the Company to grow and
create value for all shareholders. Establishing the Class C common stock now will make the Class C common stock a viable currency for financings, potential
acquisitions and employee compensation in order to pursue that market opportunity. We operate in a highly competitive industry that is subject to rapid and often
disruptive technological change, driven by both new competitors and established companies investing in leading-edge technologies. Establishing the availability
of Class C common stock now to be used for future equity capital raises will allow us to remain at the forefront of our industry to the benefit of all shareholders of
the Company. In addition, the non-voting nature of the Class C common stock will allow the Company to pursue equity capital raises with sovereign financial
institutions in light of U.S. foreign direct investment regulatory requirements.
Further, it is critical that, along with the establishment of Class C common stock, the Company issue an initial Dividend to create a liquid market for the
Class C common stock. The Special Committee considered it important, through the Dividend, to establish a deep and liquid trading market for Class C common
stock to minimize any trading-value discount relative to the Class A common stock and maximize the price for which Class C common stock could be sold in the
market. Without creating such liquidity, it would be very difficult to utilize the Class C common stock for capital raises without the Class C common stock
potentially suffering a very significant discount relative to the trading price of Class A common stock, which could significantly
8
reduce the amount of capital the Company could raise and have the effect of diluting all shareholders of the Company or could require us to issue more Class C
common stock in order to raise the same amount of capital.
Continue Mr. Zuckerberg’s Long-Term Value-Maximization for All Shareholders
Since our Company’s formation, our management team has focused on and prioritized long-term goals. Over fourteen years since our IPO, the
Company’s stock price has increased over 1,700%, from $38.23 per share to $694.25 per share as of the close of market on October 20, 2026. By contrast, over
the same period, the S&P 500 increased approximately 495%. The Special Committee recognizes that this success is in large part due to Mr. Zuckerberg’s
strong leadership, unique and creative vision, and exceptional management abilities. The Special Committee wants the Company and Mr. Zuckerberg to
continue innovating, emphasizing long-term growth and competing with other large-scale players who have already committed to unprecedented levels of capital
expenditures in connection with the development of artificial intelligence. The Special Committee recognized that the Company’s track record of huge value
creation for the Company’s shareholders is inseparable from Mr. Zuckerberg’s continued involvement in and direction of the business, and that he is the leader
best suited to shepherd the Company into its next era and beyond, and that retaining his leadership and guidance of the Company was therefore of utmost
importance. Having weighed all relevant considerations, the Special Committee concluded that Mr. Zuckerberg’s continued leadership role in our Company, and
his continuing presence at the Company’s headquarters in California, is critical at this current inflection point for the Company and the tech industry in order to
continue to provide value-maximization for all shareholders, and that those benefits substantially outweigh any countervailing considerations.
Our current corporate governance structure, which uses a dual-class stock structure, allows Mr. Zuckerberg to determine the outcome of substantially all
matters submitted to a vote of our shareholders, including the election of directors, amendments to our certificate of incorporation, and matters involving
mergers, acquisitions, and other transactions resulting in a change of control of our company. The Recapitalization will facilitate the continuation of our current
corporate governance structure, which the Special Committee believes has served us well by enabling us to continue to focus on pursuing our mission and
serving the best interests of all of our shareholders by allowing Mr. Zuckerberg to make innovative and smart investments to grow the Company over a long-term
horizon. Even though Mr. Zuckerberg has voting control of the Company, all of the directors engage meaningfully in Company matters, express their candid
views with Mr. Zuckerberg, and do not rubber stamp decisions.
As set forth in greater detail below, the Recapitalization and Dividend will allow the Company to raise critical equity capital without impacting Mr.
Zuckerberg’s voting power and the unique and creative vision and exceptional management abilities which helped to deliver the long-term value as noted above.
Further, the Dividend will allow Mr. Zuckerberg to immediately sell or transfer up to 20% of the shares of Class C common stock that he receives in the Dividend,
representing 10% of his overall economic stake in the Company, for any reason, including so that he may pay his potential tax liability under California
Proposition 40, if enacted into law, without affecting his majority voting control.
The Recapitalization will also allow us to make stock-based acquisitions and to continue to grant equity awards to our employees without affecting Mr.
Zuckerberg’s majority voting control.
Mr. Zuckerberg Is Not in Jeopardy of Losing Voting Control but for the Class C Share Issuance
As discussed herein, the Special Committee determined that it is important for Mr. Zuckerberg to retain voting control. However, the Special Committee
also noted that, unlike situations where a recapitalization may be a remedy to avoid a founder going below 50% voting power, Mr. Zuckerberg is not on the verge
of losing voting control. As of October 1, 2026, he held approximately 60.6% voting power over the Company, so the Class C common stock and Dividend do not
save Mr. Zuckerberg from losing voting control. The Special Committee considered the following factors: (i) Mr. Zuckerberg is not close to going below 50%
voting control currently; (ii) the currently foreseeable reasons why he might approach 50% in the near- to medium-term would be if he were required to pay the
California wealth tax (which has the most significant impact because it would require him to sell shares, or at least borrow against them) and the impact of equity
financings if they were done with Class A common stock (which is less impactful because it is simply dilution through primary share issuance); (iii) stock
repurchases and sales of Class B common stock by other holders of such stock in the past underscored that a dilution of voting control over time through the
natural course was not necessarily inevitable; and (iv) Mr. Zuckerberg made clear that he does not support any financing, or other actions, that would result in
his loss of voting control.
Ensure That Mr. Zuckerberg’s Economic and Voting Control Do Not Significantly Diverge
Although the Special Committee determined that it is important that Mr. Zuckerberg’s voting control is not diluted, the Special Committee also concluded
that it is beneficial for Class A shareholders that Mr. Zuckerberg’s economic interests and voting control do not significantly diverge, it being understood that the
Special Committee desired both to incentivize Mr. Zuckerberg’s continued leadership of the Company combined with extraordinary stock performance of the
Company that
9
benefits all shareholders. Therefore, the Special Committee negotiated for and obtained Mr. Zuckerberg’s agreement that 80% of the shares of Class C common
stock that he receives in the Dividend be subject to the Stapling Condition. Specifically, Mr. Zuckerberg may sell the remaining 80% of his shares of Class C
common stock that he receives in the Dividend only if, no later than two business days after the settlement of such sale, he (A) also sells shares of Class A
common stock or Class B common stock, or converts shares of Class B common stock into Class A common stock, or a combination thereof, equal in the
aggregate to the product of (x) the number of Stapled Class C Shares sold and (y) the Unstapling Ratio or (B) applies a number of Stapling Credits to the sale
equal to the product of (x) the number of Stapled Class C Shares sold and (y) the Unstapling Ratio. Further, any Stapled Class C Shares that are sold not in
compliance with the foregoing agreement will, in accordance with the terms of the Founder Alignment Agreement, result in the conversion of a number of shares
of Class B common stock, equal to the product of (i) the number of Stapled Class C Shares sold in violation of the Stapling Condition and (ii) the Unstapling
Ratio, into shares of Class A common stock. This arrangement is subject to Mr. Zuckerberg’s further ability to have a small amount of the 80% be freed from the
Stapling Condition each quarter during which he continues to satisfy the Continued Leadership Condition over 32 quarters (the “Release Period”), discussed
more fully below. This is to ensure Mr. Zuckerberg’s commitment to continue to lead the Company.
The Issuance of Additional Class C Dividends Is Subject to Future Company Success Under Mr. Zuckerberg
As described above, the Dividend, with a 1:1 ratio, will allow Mr. Zuckerberg to sell, over the Release Period and subject to the Stapling Condition, up to
one-half of his economic stake in the Company through the sale of his new shares of Class C common stock without reducing his voting control. Even if Mr.
Zuckerberg were ultimately to sell all of the shares of Class C common stock he receives in the Dividend, based on a stock price of $725.93 per share of Class A
common stock as of October 1, 2026 and his stock holdings as of such date, he would still have an approximately $124 billion economic interest in the Company
at the end of the Release Period. In order for Mr. Zuckerberg to achieve additional liquidity for and transfer economic interests of the other half of his economic
interest in the Company without reducing his voting interests, the Special Committee negotiated for certain stock-performance parameters that to date have not
existed. Under the Founder Alignment Agreement, additional Class C dividends after the Dividend would be payable pro rata to all shareholders only upon the
Company’s achievement of such stock performance parameters, and Mr. Zuckerberg’s Class C shares received in any such dividend would be free of the
Stapling Condition only if he has satisfied the Continued Leadership Condition, both of which directly benefit the Class A shareholders. Specifically, following the
first date on which both (i) the 30-day volume weighted average price of the Class C common stock reaches a successive doubling, initially 2x, then 4x, then 8x
and so on, of the corresponding price of the Class A common stock on September 10, 2026 of $580.60 per share, as equitably adjusted for stock splits, stock
dividends, recapitalizations and other equitable adjustments (including with respect to the Dividend) and (ii) the compound annualized shareholder return from
September 10, 2026, calculated on the basis of the 30-day volume weighted average price and giving effect to the reinvestment of cash dividends and
distributions, is no less than 10% (whether or not both conditions are satisfied at the same time), the Board will, subject to legally available funds, declare an
Additional Dividend on all shares of Class A, Class B, and Class C common stock then-outstanding, not just Mr. Zuckerberg’s. No more than one such dividend
may be paid in respect of any single doubling event, and no Additional Dividend will be payable following Mr. Zuckerberg's death. Shares of Class C common
stock received by Mr. Zuckerberg in any such Additional Dividend will be free of the Stapling Condition only if the Continued Leadership Condition is satisfied on
the Additional Dividend Date; if it is not, a number of shares of Class C common stock received in respect of any such Additional Dividend equaling the Post-
Leadership Stapling Number will be subject to the Stapling Condition unless the Continued Leadership Condition is subsequently satisfied for a period of at least
six consecutive months. Such extraordinary stock performance is directly beneficial to all Class A shareholders.
Ensure That Mr. Zuckerberg Remains in a Leadership Role at the Company’s Headquarters
If California’s Proposition 40, a statewide ballot measure on the November 3, 2026 general election ballot and commonly referred to as the “California
wealth tax,” is enacted as law in California, it is expected that Mr. Zuckerberg could become liable for a significant, multi-billion dollar tax payment based on his
ownership of stock in the Company. In light of this potential tax exposure, Mr. Zuckerberg informed the Special Committee that he was evaluating relocating his
primary residence outside California and that steps toward any such relocation, including any listing of his residential real estate in California on the market,
would be public and inevitably noted and commented upon by Company employees and, accordingly, raise questions for management of the Company going
forward. The Special Committee understood that any such step could be the first in a process to establish residence outside California. The Special Committee
determined that Mr. Zuckerberg has been crucial to the Company’s growth since its inception (discussed more fully above) and is best-positioned, during this
pivotal time, to ensure the Company’s continued success and to take advantage of the tremendous market opportunity that the Special Committee believed is
available to the Company. The Special Committee further believed it is critically important to keep Mr. Zuckerberg in a leadership position with our Company and
that he continue to reside in and manage the Company from our headquarters in California to ensure his continued ability to effectively drive our performance
during this era of unprecedented challenge and competition in our industry. The Special Committee was mindful about the difficulties the Company faced during
the COVID-19 pandemic when Mr. Zuckerberg could not be physically present with the Company’s management team and did not want the Company to face
similar challenges going forward. The Special Committee decided
10
that the Recapitalization and Dividend are appropriate to ensure that Mr. Zuckerberg remains in a leadership role, at our headquarters in California, and thus be
in the best position to influence our direction in the coming years. Further, the Special Committee determined, in consideration of the dramatic and
unprecedented transformation taking place in the tech industry and global economy related to artificial intelligence, that the Recapitalization and Dividend are
appropriate to ensure Mr. Zuckerberg remains working closely with Meta Superintelligence Labs at the Company’s headquarters. The Special Committee
believes that Mr. Zuckerberg’s talent and leadership have been crucial to our growth, strategy, and stability since our inception, and the Special Committee wants
that to continue.
Therefore, the Special Committee concluded that it is in the best interests of the Company and Class A shareholders to allow Mr. Zuckerberg to have an
additional 2.5% of the shares of Class C common stock from the Dividend be freed from the Stapling Condition every quarter during the Release Period that the
Continued Leadership Condition is satisfied. At the conclusion of the Release Period, assuming the Continued Leadership Condition has been satisfied
throughout, Mr. Zuckerberg will have the right to sell all of the shares of Class C common stock he received in the Dividend free of the restrictions imposed by
the Stapling Condition. If the Continued Leadership Condition is not satisfied at all times during a given quarter, no release will occur for that quarter and the
shares not released during such quarter will remain subject to the Stapling Condition until the thirty-second release, if there is one. At the time of the thirty-
second release, all of the shares of Class C common stock Mr. Zuckerberg received from the Dividend will be free of the Stapling Condition. Again, the goal is to
keep Mr. Zuckerberg continuing to lead the Company from California and in close proximity to Meta Superintelligence Labs. In light of that importance, the
Special Committee secured Mr. Zuckerberg’s commitment to remain a resident of California, or any other jurisdiction in which the Company maintains its
corporate headquarters, for eight years from the date of the Founder Alignment Agreement, for so long as Mr. Zuckerberg satisfies the Continued Leadership
Condition, unless there are material unforeseen circumstances that would render it prudent or advisable for Mr. Zuckerberg to reside elsewhere.
Mr. Zuckerberg Will Not Receive Additional Compensation as a Result of the Recapitalization
Since January 1, 2013, Mr. Zuckerberg has taken a salary of only $1 each year for his service as the Company’s chief executive officer and chairman of
the Board. This is extraordinarily different from what his peer (and even non-peer) CEOs are paid. If the California wealth tax is enacted and Mr. Zuckerberg
becomes liable for a tax payment, Mr. Zuckerberg would effectively be paying to serve as the Company’s chief executive officer while residing in California. The
Dividend is paid pro rata to all shareholders on identical terms. The portion of Mr. Zuckerberg’s Class C common stock that is immediately free of the Stapling
Condition provides him a source of liquidity, without reducing his voting interest, from which any such tax liability could be satisfied, mitigating the unintended
result that he would be paying to work at the Company while residing in California.
Further, at any time since 2013, Mr. Zuckerberg could have sought a compensation package akin to those of his peer CEOs, and the Special Committee
considered that any such package would carry substantial compensation expense and could impact the Company’s stock price. Mr. Zuckerberg confirmed to the
Special Committee that in light of the Recapitalization, he is not seeking, and the Founder Alignment Agreement does not provide for, any additional
compensation, and that his existing $1 annual salary will remain unchanged. Determinations regarding Mr. Zuckerberg’s compensation, if any, remain within the
authority of the Board and its Compensation, Nominating & Governance Committee, which historically has determined that Mr. Zuckerberg’s equity ownership
sufficiently aligns his interests with those of the Company’s shareholders, and this continues to be the case in light of the Class C dividends contemplated by the
Founder Alignment Agreement. In sum, the terms of the Founder Alignment Agreement, including the release of Class C common stock from the Stapling
Condition in accordance with its terms, the dividend of additional Class C common stock pursuant to the Company’s stock performance criteria described herein,
and Mr. Zuckerberg’s commitment with respect to his residency were, collectively, negotiated by the Special Committee to preserve the alignment of Mr.
Zuckerberg’s interests with those of all shareholders through his continued leadership and retained proportionate ownership, rather than through cash
compensation or equity or equity-based awards that would carry compensation expense and could have a negative impact on the Company’s stock price. In
other words, the Class C dividends impose no incremental cost on the Company, as a compensation package would have done, with the resulting benefit to
Class A shareholders.
Mitigating Future Potential Voting Dilution for All Shareholders
The Special Committee determined that the shares of Class A common stock have been an important tool for equity-based employee compensation, and
may be an important form of currency to help us further our strategic initiatives. However, any new issuances of shares of Class A common stock for either of
these key purposes will result in dilution to both the economic and voting interests of all our shareholders. The economic dilution can be mitigated by
endeavoring to receive value commensurate with the capital stock that we issue, but the voting dilution cannot be mitigated absent a significant use of cash or
the creation of a new class of non-voting shares such as the Class C common stock. Not only are the voting interests of all shareholders diluted by the issuance
of additional shares of Class A common stock, but issuances of shares of such stock have the additional effect, which the Special Committee believes is a
negative one, of making it more likely that Mr. Zuckerberg would lose majority voting control.
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We currently have several ways to mitigate voting dilution, including with respect to Mr. Zuckerberg’s majority voting control, to the extent that the Board
deems it appropriate, including using cash to finance acquisitions, repurchasing shares of Class A common stock in the market, and granting cash-settled equity
incentives. Each of these ways of managing voting dilution, however, requires us to expend cash, which in some circumstances may be better used to reinvest in
the growth of our business. Moreover, the Company expects to need to raise capital to finance its AI-related growth plan. The ability to issue non-voting shares of
Class C common stock will provide the Board with a significant new tool to mitigate voting dilution without requiring us to use cash. The ability to issue non-voting
shares of Class C common stock will also allow us to make decisions regarding appropriate capital structure and financing of the Company (including decisions
regarding use of debt versus equity) largely without regard to how those decisions may impact the voting power of all Class A shareholders and Mr. Zuckerberg’s
voting control, which we believe is a benefit for our shareholders.
Disinterested Directors Empowered to Act in the Interest of Our Shareholders
The Special Committee, consisting solely of independent and disinterested directors on the Board, negotiated the terms of the Restated Charter and the
Founder Alignment Agreement and had full authority to review, approve or reject any potential change to our capital structure. The Special Committee, with the
assistance of its independent financial and legal advisors, conducted an in-depth analytical review of the Recapitalization and Dividend and considered a wide
range of alternatives, including the possibility of rejecting any proposed change to our current certificate of incorporation. The Special Committee also met
regularly over the course of eight months in 2026 and held a total of thirty-three formal meetings with its legal and financial advisors, Skadden and Moelis,
respectively, to review and consider the Recapitalization, the Dividend, the Restated Charter, the Founder Alignment Agreement, and the related arrangements
with Mr. Zuckerberg.
The Special Committee determined that it was important that the negotiated arrangements remain under the purview of disinterested director oversight.
Accordingly, any amendments to or waivers of the Founder Alignment Agreement require approval of an authorized committee of at least two directors, or the
Audit & Privacy Committee, in each case with members that the Board has determined to be disinterested with respect to the matters set forth in the Founder
Alignment Agreement. That continued oversight over the foregoing agreements with Mr. Zuckerberg will help to ensure continued protection of the Class A
shareholders.
Other Benefits to the Class A Common Shareholders
As noted above, holders of shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock are currently generally entitled to receive equal per share
consideration in a merger or similar business combination (unless the only difference is that the consideration to shares of Class B common stock has ten times
the voting power of consideration to shares of Class A common stock). However, shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock may receive
differential consideration if the merger or business combination is approved by the affirmative vote of the holders of the outstanding shares of Class A common
stock and Class B common stock, each voting separately as a class.
As part of the Recapitalization, we would also amend the current certificate of incorporation to provide that, except as provided in the Restated Charter,
the holders of Class A common stock, Class B common stock, and Class C common stock shall share ratably on a per share basis in connection with any
dividends or distributions.
Moreover, in the event of any merger or similar business combination, or in the event of a tender or exchange offer by a third party pursuant to an
agreement to which we are a party or that we recommend, the holders of shares of Class A common stock, Class B common stock, and Class C common stock
will receive the same form of consideration and the same amount of consideration on a per share basis. However, shares of one or two of such classes may
receive or have the right to elect to receive different or disproportionate consideration in connection with any such merger, combination or tender or exchange
offer if the only difference in the per share consideration is that any securities distributed to the holder of a share of Class B common stock have ten times the
voting power of any securities distributed to the holder of a share of Class A common stock and that any securities distributed to the holder of a share of Class C
common stock have no voting rights or power.
In addition, upon a liquidation, dissolution, or winding up, all shares of Class A common stock, Class B common stock, and Class C common stock will be
entitled to receive ratably all of our assets available for distribution to the shareholders, unless disparate or different treatment of each such class with respect to
distributions upon any such liquidation, dissolution, or winding up is approved in advance by the affirmative vote (or written consent if action by written consent of
shareholders is permitted at such time under the Restated Charter) of the holders of a majority of the outstanding shares of Class A common stock, Class B
common stock, and Class C common stock, each voting separately as a class.
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